Best Mistake Hitters since 2010

Highest HR% on Mistake Pitches since 2010

Player	P	PA	AVG	SLUG	K%	HR%
Jose Bautista	474	183	.396	.956	6.6%	16.5%
David Ortiz	383	176	.405	.971	4.5%	15.0%
Matt Joyce	250	97	.389	.958	11.3%	14.7%
Shelley Duncan	204	75	.387	.893	21.3%	14.7%
Jim Thome	214	83	.402	.927	16.9%	14.6%
Russell Branyan	172	62	.306	.806	19.4%	14.5%
Matt Kemp	508	185	.379	.879	9.7%	13.7%
Pedro Alvarez	214	82	.415	.915	12.2%	13.4%
Mike Stanton	293	116	.421	.956	10.3%	13.2%
Pat Burrell	246	79	.408	.921	11.4%	13.2%
Josh Hamilton	252	124	.369	.820	8.9%	13.1%
Brennan Boesch	276	129	.414	.875	7.0%	12.5%
Ryan Braun	458	178	.434	.914	6.7%	12.0%
Brian McCann	301	109	.367	.789	11.9%	11.9%
Carlos Pena	361	139	.296	.741	12.2%	11.9%
Jorge Posada	237	101	.257	.644	16.8%	11.9%
Adam LaRoche	242	93	.376	.817	9.7%	11.8%
Joey Votto	420	165	.466	.975	9.7%	11.7%
Mark Reynolds	459	170	.293	.731	17.6%	11.4%
Carlos Quentin	303	109	.286	.705	7.3%	11.4%
Prince Fielder	368	159	.365	.755	6.3%	11.3%
Albert Pujols	407	162	.379	.814	4.3%	11.2%
Curtis Granderson	411	110	.336	.776	3.6%	11.2%
Kelly Johnson	412	153	.329	.763	9.2%	11.2%

Make a mistake to any of these hitters, and you're bound to pay for it. The above list includes only pitches that crossed the center of the strike zone since 2010. It's no surprise that Jose Bautista has a high HR% on mistake pitches; same for David Ortiz, Matt Kemp and a bunch of others.

I'm somewhat surprised to see Matt Joyce as #3 on the list. Of the 36 home runs he's hit since the start of 2010, 14 have come on pitches right in the center of the strike zone. Eight of those HRs came in 2011 when he hit 19 total long balls.

Nick Swisher has the most hits on mistake pitches with 80, while teammate Derek Jeter's 79 hits has him tied for second with Michael Young.

Mark Reynolds, #20 on the list, also has 30 strike outs on pitches over the middle of the plate since 2010. That's second only to Adam Dunn with 33.

Best Hitters of Pitches on the Black

Pitches on the Black over the last Year

The above shows the hitters with the most hits on pitches located on the black of the plate over the last year.  These can be either pitches thrown to the inside or outside black. 

Borderline pitches can be difficult to hit.  The most successful pitchers are able to throw to the black consistently. The above list shows hitters that have produced more hits on these pitches than the rest of the league.

Some hitters do better on the inside pitch on the black, while others are more successful on the outside edge.  Fifteen of Joey Votto's 23 hits on the black were on the outside edge of the plate. That includes all four of his home runs and one of his doubles.  This makes sense as Votto can extend better on those pitches and generate more power.

However, Michael Young leads all hitters with hits on inside pitches on the black with 12. Young stands off the plate a bit with a slightly open stance, so it makes sense that he has racked up so many hits on these pitches over the last year.

The 2011 200-hitsters

I've been curious about the players who have picked up at least 200 hits this season, who I refer to as "200-hitsters."

Here's a look at them through action on Sept. 26.

Rk	Player	H	Tm	G	HR	RBI	BA
1	Adrian Gonzalez	211	BOS	157	27	117	.338
2	Jacoby Ellsbury	210	BOS	156	31	103	.323
3	Michael Young	210	TEX	157	11	105	.338
4	Starlin Castro	204	CHC	156	10	65	.306
5	Melky Cabrera	201	KCR	155	18	87	.305

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/27/2011.

Interesting group, don't you think?

Adrian Gonzalez and Starlin Castro lead their leagues in hits. Matt Kemp of the Dodgers has 192 hits for second place in the NL.

Let's take a look at the heat maps for each of these players and see what we see.

Adrian Gonzalez

114 of Gonzo's hits have been off of fastballsGonzo strength has been on the outside of the plate where he has produced 74 hits. However, as his shoulder has weakened so has his ability to drive balls pitched to him on the outside. Since August 1, he has only 17 hits on outside pitches and only nine off of fastballs.

Jacoby Ellsbury

Ellsbury has 109 hits off fastballsYou can see that Jacoby has loved the inside quadrant all season long, but since August 1st, he has expanded his zone.

Since August1, Ellsbury has 71 hits including 14 homers

Michael Young

106 of Michael's hits have come on fastballsMichael Young has been killer this season on every thing middle in. If the Rangers make the World Series, I will be fascinated watching Cliff Lee and Doc Halladay paint that low and outside corner where Young has only eight hits this season.

Starlin Castro

Castro has 85 hits on fastballs and 40 on slidersCastro has been remarkably consistent hitting .307 before the All-Star break and .305 since. it's not as obvious, but middle down has produced 161 of his hits

Melky Cabrera

The switch-hitting Melky has 63 hits from the right side of the plate, 34 off of fastballsCabrera has 138 hits as a lefty with 65 coming off fastballsThe Melk Man hit .293 before the All Star break and has hit .322 with 89 hits since. Cabrera never had more than 149 hits in a season prior to 2011.

The five 200-hitsters are the most since we had eight in 2006 and 2007.