Cain Able to Induce Pop-Ups

Barring an in-season extension, San Francisco's Matt Cain is poised to hit free agency after 2012. Cain has tossed over 200 innings in each of the past five years, and his career 125 ERA+ places in the top 10 among starting pitchers with at least 1,000 innings of work since he debuted in 2005. Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal argues that Cain's combination of performance, durability and youth makes him a prime candidate to bank the biggest deal ever for a right-handed starter, surpassing the seven-year, $105 million deal Kevin Brown inked with the Dodgers prior to 1999:

Cain, 27, deserves to be among the game’s highest-paid pitchers. The possibility of him accepting the same type of hometown discount that Jered Weaver did last season surely is diminishing, particularly when Cain knows that the next deal for his Giants teammate, right-hander Tim Lincecum, almost certainly will dwarf his own.

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The pent-up demand for elite starters is considerable; so few have hit the market in recent seasons. True, high-revenue clubs such as the Phillies, New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are hemming and hawing about staying under the luxury-tax threshold. But the combination of labor peace, industry growth and skyrocketing local TV rights fees is increasing the spending power of many clubs.

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In any case, the market is changing, and the establishment of a new standard by Cain or some other right-handed starter is overdue.

Aside from Jered Weaver, who took a hometown discount to stay with the Angels, elite righties like Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander signed extensions that will pay them around $20 million per season for what would have been free agent-eligible years. Some might not think of Cain being in that realm, but Felix had a career 125 ERA+ and Verlander a 116 ERA+ when they signed those extensions before the 2010 season. With a longer track record than those two had at the time and a few more years of revenue growth in the game, Cain could reasonably ask for $20+ million per year.

While Cain has consistently had ERA totals well below the league average, he makes some sabermatricians queasy. The reason: a disconnect between his ERA (3.35 career) and what we think his ERA should be based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball ratio (4.26 xFIP). In fact, no qualified starting pitcher since '05 has a bigger difference between his ERA and xFIP than Cain.

An aspect of Cain's game that explains some of that ERA-peripheral split is his ability to induce pop-ups. Since 2008 (the first year for which we have Pitch F/X data), Cain has gotten the fifth-most pop-ups among starters. Jered Weaver, Ted Lilly, Scott Baker and Bronson Arroyo are the only starters to get opponents to hit the ball up the elevator shaft more often.

Cain gets those pop-ups primarily with his fastball (three-quarters of them), challenging hitters high in the zone with the pitch. Check out his fastball location compared to that of an average righty starter:

 Cain's fastball location, 2008-12

Fastball location for right-handed starters, 2008-12

Cain has thrown slightly over 46% of his fastballs high in the zone over the past four years, the eighth-highest rate among starters and well above the 35% league average.

Next to strikeouts, pop-ups are a pitcher's best friend. They never leave the yard, and they're automatic outs. Less than two percent of pop-ups put in play turn into hits, so inducing pop-ups can lead to a lower BABIP for a pitcher. Hitters' weak flies on Cain's high heat could partially help explain why he has a career .265 BABIP and a 6.5% home run per fly ball rate, both well below the league average.

After 1,300-plus innings of high-level pitching, it's time to give Cain his due: He's one of the best starters in the game. Rosenthal looks right in saying Cain should top Kevin Brown's pre-millennium mega-deal.

Reverse Cain

Since the start of the 2009 season, Matt Cain of the Giants recorded better results against left-handed batters than right-handed batters despite Matt throwing from the right side.  Left-handers hit .224/.282/.360 against Matt, while righties managed a .231/.295/.380 slash line.  How does Matt manage to keep lefties so off balance?

The first thing to notice is that Cain works lefties away:

Matt Cain, pitch frequency vs. LHB, 2009-2011.Left-handed power hitters like the ball low and inside, so this should be a good strategy.  Cain adds to it, however, with the movement of his pitches.  While he works outside, his four pitches move inside:

Matt Cain, movement across the plate vs. LHB, 2009-2011.His fastball in orange, changeup and slider in green (slider closer to the batter) and curve ball in blue all move toward a left-handed batter most of the time.  So Cain can start these pitches outside the strike zone, and have them break over the plate.  So left-handed batters often see ball, but then end up with the ball over the plate.  His fastball and curve ball result in over one third of the time, while his change and slider get chased out of the zone over 40% of the time.  Lefties get fooled.

Finally, here's what happens when lefties put the ball in play:

Matt Cain, in play batting average vs. LHB, 2009-2011.They hit him well down and in, the main area Cain avoids with his pitches.  He uses movement to fool left-handed batters in and out of the zone, and throws where these batters don't hit well.  The result makes Cain as good if not better when the batter owns the platoon advantage.

More Change Ups for Matt Cain

Matt Cain (SFN) altered his pitch selection significantly so far in 2011.  During the previous three seasons, Matt relied on his fastball, working a change up occasionally.  He used the heater 62.1% of time time, with the change tapped 11.6% of the time. The pitch barely shows up in comparison to the fastball:

Matt Cain, break on fastball and change up, 2008-2010.The change is represent by the small tail down and toward a right-handed batter.  In 2011, Cain throws fewer fastballs and more change ups, the change accounting for nearly a quarter of his pitches.

Matt Cain, break on fastball and change up, 2011.The tail stands out more as fastballs are down to 56.4% and changes are up to 24.2%.  Why the change to the change?  During the three previous seasons, Cain's fastball resulted in a .306 wOBA, while his change brought him a .282 wOBA.  In 2011, those numbers are closer, but the change still wins .287 to .293 for the fastball.

Cain didn't stop with just throwing more change ups, he's throwing them farther down and out than before.  In 2008-2010, he threw the pitch for strikes.

Matt Cain, change up location, 2008-2010.This season it's more likely to be out of the strike zone:

Matt Cain, change up location, 2011.It's not clear that this shift really helped Matt, as he's getting more ball on the ground, but giving up more hits as well.  That said, pitchers run the risk of becoming too predictable.  Altering his pattern puts something new in the mind of his opposing hitters, and that works to the pitcher's advantage.