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Entries in Matt Cain (14)

Wednesday
Oct242012

Cain is Able: Gets it done on the Hill and at the Dish

The San Fransisco Giants completed a three game run against the defending champion St. Louis Cardinals to punch their ticket to the World Series, and they did it on the back of their pitching staff. Zito and Vogelsong spun two gems to force a game seven, and Matt Cain took over the rest. 

Let's do an inning by inning breakdown of how Cain stiffled the Cards.

 

1st INNING

Cain struck out Jon Jay swinging with a nasty 2-seamer at the letters. He gave up a bloop single to Beltran, but managed to strand him in scoring position with two weak fly balls.

 

2nd INNING

The second was a little shakier for Cain, as he allowed runners to get to second and third with two outs before getting Lohse to lineout on a great leaping catch by Brandon Crawford. Cain also showed off his skill at the plate in the bottom half, as he knocked a hanging slider back up the middle for an RBI single to put the Giants up 2-0.

 

3rd INNING

After allowing a leadoff single to Jay, Cain settled in and got three straight outs to retire the side. To this point in the game, Cain had  only struck out two batters, inducing five fly balls and only two ground balls while walking one. Let's take a look at his pitch location through the first three innings.

Cain's Pitch Locations through 3 innings of NCLS Game 7

Coupling this with the contact rate of hitters, it is easy to see that his command of his pitches was excellent.

 

Contact rate versus Cain through 3 innings of NLCS game 7As you can see, the spots that Cain was hitting most frequently were a virtual dead zone for Cardinals hitters through the first half of his outing. Even though Cain wasn't striking out hitters at a high rate, he maintained good control of all of his pitches and continued to induce outs.

 

4th INNING

Cain gave up a leadoff single before retiring three straight via fly out, strikeout, and ground out respectively. At this point, the game had gotten completely out of hand, with the Giants leading 7-0, it was Cain's job to get outs. When this happens, a pitcher can begin to focus on pounding the strikezone, attacking hitters, and pitching to contact. 

 

5th INNING

Cain retired the side in order, forcing a ground out, a lineout, and a fly out. One important thing to notice during this outing is the amount of line drive outs to this point in the game: three; any one of those could have landed for a hit early and completely changed the dynamic of the game, but every pitcher knows how to appreciate a hard hit ball right at a fielder.

 

6th INNING

After hitting the first batter and allowing yet another line drive out at the second baseman, Cain gave up a seeing-eye single through the left side of the infield. He settled down to punch out David Freese for his last batter of the day.

Cain's pitch location from the 4th to the 6th inning

As you can see, Cain's location shifted more towards the middle of the plate. Usually this is asking for trouble for a pitcher, but as mentioned previously, Cain had been given a big lead, and his excellent compliment of pitches led to a very successful outing and a trip to the World Series. This will be the Giants' second trip in the past three years, and they will ride the success of their starting pitchers as far as it will take them.

 

Wednesday
Aug152012

#PerfectCain Posters

Like most baseball enthusiasts we were excited to watch Matt Cain's perfect game... Shortly thereafter we made a poster celebrating the achievement. The heatmap featured in the poster represents Cain's pitch locations throughout the entire game.

Heatmap representing Matt Cain's pitch locations during his perfect game.In any case we have received many requests to buy these posters... So should we sell these??? Please respond below...

Tuesday
Jul102012

Matt Cain's Fastball: Less Velocity, More Whiffs

Justin Verlander takes the mound for the AL All-Stars tonight in Kansas City against NL starter Matt Cain. Verlander, averaging 94.4 MPH with his fastball this year and topping out at 101.5 MPH, fits the power pitcher archetype to a T.

Cain really doesn't at this point at his career. His fastball velocity has trended down in recent years, going from an average of 91.6 MPH in 2010 to 91.2 MPH last year and 90.9 MPH in 2012. His top-level velocity has declined from 95.4 MPH to 94.4 MPH. Yet his whiff rate over that period has climbed: 16.7 percent in '10, 18.1 percent last year and a Verlander-esque 21 percent in 2012:

Highest fastball miss percentages among SP, 2012

PitcherMiss Pct.
Matt Moore 24.1%
Max Scherzer 23.0%
Lance Lynn 22.5%
Gio Gonzalez 22.1%
Yu Darvish 21.7%
Matt Cain 21.0%
Justin Verlander 21.0%
Ian Kennedy 20.0%
J. A. Happ 19.8%
Wei-Yin Chen 19.8%
MLB Avg. 14.6%

 

Cain's slower, yet more whiff-inducing fastball bucks the trend usually seen between fastball velocity and whiff rate. The faster the pitch, the more often the batter swings through it:

Fastball miss rate by velocity for SP in 2012:

Velocity (MPH)Miss Rate
90 13.6
91 14.1
92 15.1
93 14.8
94 16.2
95 18.8

 

So, where is the zone is Cain getting those extra swings and misses? On pitches thrown on the inner half, especially to fellow right-handers. Check out his contact rate by pitch location with the fastball over the past three years:

2010

 

2011

 

2012

 

Cain's miss rate with the fastball on inner-half pitches has increased somewhat against lefties (from 12.1 percent in 2010 to 13.5 percent this year), but he's getting dramatically more whiffs on inner-half fastballs against right-handed hitters (13.6 percent in 2010, 21.1 percent in 2012). Beware, Jeter, Joey Bats, Beltre and Napoli: Cain's can make you whiff inside, modest velocity be damned.