About one in three Justin Upton's fly balls are home runs

Joe Sheehan has a great piece in the 5/13 edition of Sports Illustrated presenting the case for Justin Upton.

Sheehan writes about Upton, "He's swinging harder and missing more pitches (a 12% swing-and-miss rate, his highest since 2009), but he's crushing the ones he's hitting: An absurd 35.3% of his fly balls leave the yard."

This got me curious as to who else has a high flyball to HR percentage.

To his credit, Sheehan in his article was quick to point out, "Upton isn't going to hit 60 bombs. His home-run-to-fly-ball rate isn't sustainable; his career mark coming into this year was 13.2%. The league leaders in the category usually end up around 25%."

As you can see from the chart above, Upton has already dropped down to 30.2%.

Not surprisingly, right behind him are Ryan Braun and Bryce Harper, both with numbers in the upper 20th percentile. But it may surprise you (because it did me) how good Mets teammates John Buck and Lucas Duda's numbers are.

Carlos Gomez and Ryan Howard are both at 15.8%

Then you have to look and wonder what s going on with David Wright, Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, and Buster Posey, all of whom are in the 13th percentile of flyballs turning into homers.

Take a look at the guys under 10% and you will be amazed to see names including Alfonso Soriano, Jay Bruce, Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp.

Their teams have to be wondering what happened to the power?

Looking at the AL and we see Mark Trumbo and Michael Morse's power in action

Chris Davis is pounding the baseball and the Indians have to be thrilled with the success of Mark Reynolds and Carlos Santana.

Robinson Cano is making it more and more expensive for the Yankees to keep him. And, Chris Carter and Jose Bautista have identical numbers.

But what has happened to the Red Sox' Mike Napoli and Will Middlebrooks?

In the 15th percentile are a number of batters including: Miguel Cabrera, Mitch Moreland, Alex Rios, Josh Willingham, Adrian Beltre, Alex Gordon and Mike Trout.

And their numbers are better than Adam Jones, Billy Butler, Albert Pujols (10.6%!) and Josh Hamilton (10.0%!!).

There is a lot of warning track power being exhibited these days, but just remember there is a much better opportunity for something good happening on a fly ball than on a strikeout.

2012 Home Run Leaders by Outs

2012 0 Outs HR Leaders | Infographics

2012 One Out HR Leaders | Infographics

2012 2-Outs HR Leaders | Infographics

HR Derby Tidbits: AL Edition

Team Cano (Jose Bautista, Robinson Cano, Prince Fielder, Mark Trumbo) takes on Team Kemp (Carlos Beltran, Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Kemp and Andrew McCutchen) tonight at Kauffman Stadium in the 2012 Home Run Derby (8 PM EST, ESPN). While the Royals' home digs aren't particularly friendly to power hitters during regular games, decreasing homers hits by 27 percent for lefties and 15 percent for righties according to StatCorner, these guys should have little trouble reaching the waterfalls beyond the outfield fences. Here's a closer look at the shots hit by Team Cano in 2012.

Jose Bautista

Home Runs: 27

Bautista is all about the pull power: 22 of his 27 bombs have screamed down the left field line, with just one shot going to the opposite field. That Bautista is the game's pre-eminent pull hitter is remarkable considering how loathe pitchers are to give him something inside. Just 23 percent of the pitches Bautista has seen have been thrown inside, compared to the 28-29 percent MLB average. That means he's hitting pull-side homers on pitches thrown on the outer half:

Pitch location of Bautista's HRs

Bautista has his 16 of his bombs on outer-half pitches this season.  

Robinson Cano

Home Runs: 20

While not quite Bautista-like, Cano has also pulled the vast majority of his homers this season (14 of 20). Ten of those 13 pulled home runs have come at home -- Yankee Stadium's short right field porch is a pull hitter's best friend. Cano has popped an equal number of homers this season against "hard" pitches (fastballs, cutters and sinkers) and "soft" stuff (changeups, curveballs and sliders). He likes the ball below the letters, hitting three-quarters of his homers on pitches thrown low or to the middle of the zone:

Pitch location of Cano's HR

Prince Fielder 

Home Runs: 15

Continuing the pull-happy theme, Fielder has ripped 12 of his 15 home runs into the right field stands. Prince has actually hit the majority of his homers on "soft" pitches, going yard nine times combined against breaking and off-speed stuff. Just over half of his home runs have come on pitches thrown around his considerable belt:

Pitch location of Fielder's HRs

Mark Trumbo

Home Runs: 22

Trumbo has distributed his homers a little differently than the rest of Team Cano, hitting 14 to the pull side, seven to center field and one to the opposite side. If the regular season is any indication, don't look for Trumbo to take many pitches tonight. He's tied with Cano and a few others for the second-most home runs hit on the first pitch this season, with five. Trumbo likes it when pitchers challenge him inside, as 15 of his homers have come on inner-half offerings:

Pitch location of Trumbo's HRs