Dustin Pedroia's Excellent At Bat

In the bottom of the fifth inning Monday night, Dustin Pedroia (BOS) battled Jered Weaver (LAA) for 13 pitches, the batter eventually delivering a two-RBI single that resulted in the Red Sox taking the lead.  The following chart shows the pitches of the at bat overlayed on Dustin's hot zones since the start of the 2008 season:

Dustin Pedroia vs. Jered Weaver, May 2, 2011, bottom of the fifth inning.From the batter's point of view, this sequence shows Dustin's superb strike zone judgement.  He only swung at two pitches out of the strike zone (6 and 12), and they were both probably too close to take with two strikes and Weaver on the mound.  Dustin did not swing and miss in the sequence, nor did he take a strike.  Each swing resulted in a foul ball or ball in play.  In Moneyball terms, Pedroia's process was very good.

From the pitcher's point of view, Weaver mixed his pitches well in every dimension.  He used four different pitches during the sequence, four fastballs, three changeups, three sliders, and three cutters.  Three times he threw the same pitch on consecutive throws, but on almost every toss he changed location, up, down in and out.  Until the last three pitches, there was always something different about the previous pitch.

The last three pitches, however, is what did in Weaver.  Pitches 11 and 12 were classified as cutters and pitch 13 as a fastball, but the three had all about the same speed, spin and movement.  Pedroia basically saw the same pitch three times in a row for the first time during the at bat.  Note, too, that pitch 13 was higher on the corner than the other two, and that's right on the edge of a hot zone for Dustin.  Pedroia had the pitch timed, Weaver put it in a good location, and the single on pitch 13 turned the game around.  It was a classic battle between a fine pitcher and a fine hitter.

April's Outside Power Hitters

April's Top 15 Power Hitters on Outside Pitches

• Jose Bautista (TOR) continues to crush pitches regardless of where they are in the zone. His 5 HRs on outside pitches leads all major league hitters. Curtis Granderson (NYY), Mark Teixeira (NYY), and Ryan Howard (PHI) are tied for second with 4 HRs.
• Peter Bourjos (LAA) leads the league with 4 triples on outside pitches.
• Carlos Quentin (CWS) leads all hitters with 6 doubles on outside pitches.
• Carlos Santana (CLE) lead the majors last year with a .643 SLG on outside pitches. He's currently ranked 42nd with a .476 SLG. Albert Pujols, who was ranked 2nd last year with a .601 SLG, currently holds a .167 SLG on outside pitches, putting him in 235th place.

Wood Gives Away the Plate

Why is Brandon Wood such a terrible hitter?  Since the start of the 2008 season, he posted a .169/.200/.257 slash line.  That might be okay for a pitcher, but a major league third baseman can't survive with such low averages.  Part of the problem is that Wood gives away a large part of the plate.

Brandon Wood, taken strikes, 2008-2011.That's a huge area where he is taking pitches that have almost no chance to being called balls.  One reason he may take there is that he often swings and misses those pitches:

Brandon Wood, swinging strikes, 2008-2011.Note that little green donut hole on the inside half of the plate?  That's Wood's hot zone:

Brandon Wood, in play average, 2008-2011.So he can't hit balls on the outside part of the plate, so he takes those pitches hoping to get a ball down and in.  His taking strikes leads to another problem as well:

Brandon Wood, ball rate on taken pitches, 2008-2011.Look how far off the plate a pitcher needs to throw before the umpire gives Wood the ball call.  The dotted line represents the area of uncertainty, yet outside of that line Wood is only getting 50% of the calls.  Wood gave away the outside half of the plate, and the pitchers and umpires give him no benefit of the doubt.  Until Wood takes back the outside part of the plate, and shows he knows the difference between a ball and a strike, he won't get those calls.

Of course, it just may be that down and in is the only place where he can be successful when he swings.  If that's the case, he won't be in the majors much longer.