Why are the Royals, Twins, Red Sox, Orioles, and Rangers above .500?

AL Teams Batting Average and BA w/RISP

I can't help be fascinated with the differential between team batting average and team average with runners in scoring position as an indicator of team success.

AL teams are hitting .251 overall and .251 with runners in scoring position 

It stands to reason then that the teams that are succeeding this young season are the ones with the highest positive differential between the two figures.

As you mouse over the teams, you can see that in terms of batting, the team closest to the average is Houston. Remember, this only takes into account batting and clearly the 5-13 Astros have problems that far exceed their ability to hit with runners in scoring position.

When you look at the Kansas City Royals numbers you can see why they are a first place team. Their batting avg. is fifth best in the league, but their abilty to hit with runners in scoring position is the best in the AL and  at +55 points, you can see a reason for their success.

Look at the Twins, and you can see a reason for their surprising early success. They have a +49 point differential. The Red Sox have a +35 which has brought them success when paired with their strong pitching.

Wonder why the Tigers with their great bats are off to a rocky start? How about hitting 42 points lower with runners in scoring position as an answer? 

The Angels have the highest batting average in the league at .280, but are only hitting .223 w/RISP. This puts them in the bottom four in the league.

But no team is exhibiting worse timely hitting than the White Sox

Chicago, like Toronto, is not hitting well overall, both at .232. But as bad as the Jays are hitting with RISP at .200, that is robust compared to the White Sox at .170, a -62 differential.

Unless, and until, those two teams narrow the gap, the liklihood of even reaching .500 this season remains remote.

In the meantime, as the Royals, Twins, Red Sox, Orioles, and Rangers continue to hit well with runners in scoring position, we will see them above .500 and challenging in their respective divisions.

Wade Davis: Middling Starter, Star Reliever

It's no secret that pitchers who move from the starting rotation to the bullpen perform better. No longer worried about conserving energy or playing a cat-and-mouse game with hitters multiple times, starters-turned-relievers ramp up the velocity -- and the strikeouts. But even by those standards Wade Davis' transition during the 2012 season was shocking. Davis, who had a mediocre 92 ERA+ and 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings as a starter from 2009-2011, improved to the tune of a 157 ERA+ 11.1 K/9 out of the 'pen in 2012.

We'll soon find out whether Davis can retain some of those gains in as a starter in Kansas City, as the 27-year-old righty acquired in the James Shields-Wil Myers megadeal will return to the rotation in 2013. Unless he can ramp up the radar gun readings while going six innings, the answer might be "no." 

Davis didn't add a new pitch to his repertoire last year, throwing his fastball about two-thirds of the time, mixing in curveballs (20%) and sliders (10%) and throwing a changeup monthly. He didn't fine-tune his control, either, walking more batters (3.7 per nine) than he did as a starter (3.2). Rather, he boosted the velocity of all his pitches in a big way, leading to a major uptick in whiffs.

Here's Davis' velocity and miss rate with his pitches as a starter, compared to the average for right-handers:

Davis as a starter

	Davis as a SP		MLB Avg. for RH SP
Pitch	Velocity	Miss Pct.	Velocity	Miss Pct.
Fastball	91.8	14.1	91.5	14.1
Slider	85.6	25.2	83.9	29.6
Curveball	78.8	15.4	76.9	28.3

As a starter, Davis had a league-average fastball both in terms of velocity and miss rate. He threw his slider and curve hard, but his miss rates were paltry. In relief, Davis gained a couple of ticks on all of his pitches and posted elite miss rates:

Davis as a reliever

	Davis as a RP		MLB Avg. for RH RP
Pitch	Velocity	Miss Pct.	Velocity	Miss Pct.
Fastball	93.4	26.8	92.9	18.2
Slider	89	41.4	84.1	33.5
Curveball	81.1	31.5	78.4	31.6

A couple extra ticks of velocity makes a major difference, particularly with fastballs. Righty pitchers throwing 91-92 MPH fastballs surrendered a .465 opponent slugging percentage last season, over 40 points higher than pitchers sitting between 93-94 MPH (.424). Davis also dropped his fastball slugging percentage about 40 points while moving from that 91-92 range as a starter (.439) to 93-94 in relief (.398). Short of keeping the extra velocity while getting stretched out, Davis could return to mediocrity as a starter.

Solving Breaking Stuff Key to Breakout for Hosmer, Moustakas

With Wil Myers headed to Tampa as part of the gargantuan bounty paid for James Shields, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas will be subject to even more scrutiny from Royals fans. Kansas City's cornerstone corner infielders, both former top ten prospects as rated by Baseball America, are coming off disappointing sophomore seasons. Hosmer didn't have many bounces go his way (his batting average on balls in play was just .255), but his slugging percentage dipped by over 100 points from 2011 (.465) to 2012 (.359). Moustakas, meanwhile, hit 20 homers but did so with a sub-.300 on-base percentage (.296).

For Hosmer and Moustakas to have breakout seasons, they'll first have to solve breaking stuff. Both struggled mightily against curveballs and sliders in 2012, with Hosmer posting the seventh-lowest slugging percentage (.233) among qualified hitters and Moustakas (.313) also doing far less damage than the league average (.357). Hosmer has to start lofting breaking stuff, while Moustakas has to stop lunging at it.

Check out Hosmer's ground ball rate by pitch location against breaking pitches, compared to the league average:

Hosmer's ground ball rate vs. curves and sliders

League average ground ball rate vs. curves and sliders

Hosmer hit a grounder about 57% of the time last year, way above the 47% major league average. Here are some of the players who hit grounders on breaking stuff about as often as Hosmer: Nyjer Morgan, Jose Tabata, Juan Pierre and Brian Bogusevic. Power hitters, those fellows are not.

While Hosmer hits too many choppers, Moustakas chases too many breaking pitches off the plate. Here's his swing rate by pitch location against curves and sliders, and then the league average:

Moustakas' swing rate vs. curves and sliders

League average swing rate vs. curves and sliders

Moustakas chased about 39% of breaking pitches thrown outside of the strike zone, compared to the 32% big league average. Perhaps recognizing his breaking ball giddiness, pitchers threw him a curve or slider over the plate just 41% of the time (46% MLB average).

Hosmer (entering his age-23 season) and Moustakas (24) both have youth on their side. But now that the Royals have decided that six years of potential superstar production from Myers is worth giving up for two years of Shields, K.C.'s corner infielders are under even more pressure to produce. Their performance against breaking stuff will be crucial during a make-or-break 2013 season.