Comparing strike zones for Sabathia and Verlander

During last night's ALDS Game Three between the New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers, Yankee manager Joe Girardi mentioned during his in-game interview that he thought CC Sabathia wasn't getting some borderline calls from home plate umpire Gerry Davis.  He also brought it up in the post-game interview saying of CC, “I actually thought he made a lot of good pitches tonight and I thought the zone was a small zone.”

So was CC getting squeezed? Was Justin Verlander getting a better strike zone to work with?  Or both?

Let’s take a look at some of the numbers and heat maps.

(Click image to enlarge)

The most noticeable difference here is the strikes Gerry Davis was calling for Verlander off the outside edge to lefty hitters.  Verlander also benefitted from a few strikes that were a bit high.  However, it's tough to say whether CC would have gotten any similar calls in that area since he didn't throw anything there that was taken by any Detroit hitters. The up and away strike to RHB also seems to have tipped in Verlander's favor, while CC was getting the low and away area.

So what do the numbers say?

Game 3 - Gerry Davis Strike Zone

	Strike Zone Called Balls	Out of Strike Zone Called Strikes
Sabathia	6	3
Verlander	5	10

	Called Strike% In Strike Zone	Called Strike% Out of Strike Zone
Sabathia	62.5%	7.3%
Verlander	70.6%	19.6%

So what does this tell us? Essentially, CC and Verlander missed out on about the same number of called strikes in the strike zone. However, Verlander greatly benefited from an expanded zone, getting more than three times as many called strikes on pitches outside of the PitchFX defined strike zone. Most of those pitches are likely the outside strikes to lefties you see in the above heat maps.

As for the percentages, CC was getting fewer strikes called overall in the strike zone. A 62.5% strike zone called strike rate is pretty low. During the regular season, Gerry Davis correctly called 76.8% of strikes in the strike zone, and 78.9% for left-handed pitchers. For whatever reason, he simply was not giving CC much of a zone to work with yesterday.

Granted, we are talking about a total of just 16 taken pitches in the strike zone for CC and 17 for Verlander. If CC was throwing to some borderline spots that Gerry Davis does not normally call while Verlander was not, it could explain the disproportionate results.

However, for strikes called out of the strike zone, it is pretty clear that Verlander was the big beneficiary in last night's game. Three of his strikes called on pitches out of the zone were deciding strike three pitches.

Verlander's Reverse Platoon Split

The New York Yankees' lineup will likely sport six lefty bats --  Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson, Robinson Cano and switch-hitters Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher and Jorge Posada  -- against Tigers ace Justin Verlander tonight. You might that that gives New York an advantage against the Detroit righty, but Verlander has shown a reverse platoon split this season and has actually been better against lefties than righties dating back to 2008:

Verlander's platoon splits

2011

Vs. LHB: .174/.233/.271

Vs. RHB: .215/.253/.364

Since 2008

Vs. LHB: .224/.292/.340

Vs. RHB: .233/.289/.359

Verlander shelves his slider against left-handers, throwing his fastball (55 percent), changeup (26 percent) and curveball (18 percent). His heater is much more of a swing-and-miss pitch against lefties (21 percent) than righties (14 percent). Part of what makes Verlander's fastball so tough for lefties is that it's basically two pitches. He'll buzz them high and inside, or pepper the outside part of the plate:

Verlander's fastball location vs. lefties, 2011His hard, upper 80s changeup tumbles low and away and often ends out of the strike zone:

Verlander's changeup location vs. lefties, 2011Verlander's change catches the plate less than one-third of the time, but hitters whiff at the pitch nearly 40 percent of the time they swing.

With his curve, Verlander does an exceptional job of painting the black low and away:

Verlander's curveball location vs. lefties, 2011

Verlander has the highest overall miss rate among right-handed AL starters against lefty hitters, getting them to come up empty 27 percent of the time they swing. And he'll ring them up on any of his pitches, registering 57 Ks with the curve, 54 with the fastball and 32 with the changeup. Don't expect this Tiger to tremble against New York's loaded lefty lineup.

Verlander Versus Shields

A reader sends a question about Justin Verlander of the Tigers and James Shields of the Rays:

With all the talk about Verlander getting Cy Young and possibly MVP, I'm wondering how much better he's been than James Shields of the Rays.  Shields has a 2.70 ERA in a harder division (Verlander doesn't have to face explosive Red Sox and Yankees offenses as much as Shields), with 11 bullpen saving complete games, and 15 wins despite the anemic Rays offense.  Verlander has a gaudy amount of wins and 2.36 ERA in the AL Central, but could it be reasoned that Shields would have a better season if him and Verlander traded places?

It's a great question, but let me look at it another way.  When you look at the two pitchers in terms of opposition batting, Verlander is clearly superior.

2011	Verlander	Shields
IP	236	226.33
OBP	0.243	0.267
Slug	0.333	0.372
wOBA	0.252	0.277
BABIP	0.230	0.247
Strikeout %	0.265	0.227

Shields doesn't really save the bullpen any better than Verlander, since Justin pitched more innings this season.  On top of that, with the Tigers closer perfect on the season, there's no reason to avoid going to him in the ninth.  Verlander avoids the underbelly of the bullpen, and that's all a starter needs to do.

On top of that, Justin's averages are lower across the board.  Both pitchers record few hits on ball in play (BABIP), and that helps both tremendously.  One could argue, however, that Verlander received a few more lucky bounces.

That could be a big factor.  Verlander may be facing weaker hitters in the AL Central, or those hitters could just have suffered bad luck facing Verlander.  Let's look a little deeper, as PITCHf/x allows us to see in some ways the quality of their pitches:

2011	Verlander	Shields
Swing %	0.468	0.475
Pct Missed	0.237	0.246
% In Zone	0.428	0.515
Chase %	0.313	0.323
Called Strike %	0.359	0.327
Line Drive %	0.134	0.183

Note that this table paints a slightly different picture.  Shields gets more batters to swing, and more to miss when they do swing.  He tends to hit the strike zone more often than Verlander, and gets more batters to chase pitchers outside the strike zone.  In other words, in categories that measure the quality of the pitcher, Shields seems to be better.

That doesn't hold up everywhere, however.  Verlander gets more called strikes, meaning he tends to fool batters more.  A lower number of balls in play as line drives also implies Verlander fools batters, as that could lead to poor contact.

Or it could be that batters just can't see the ball.  Verlander's fastball averages 94.9 MPH, one of the fastest in the league.  Shields is down at 90.8, so he needs to be finer than Verlander.  My verdict is that both are aces, but in 2011, Verlander's ability to strike out more batters and catch them looking leads to his better numbers.  He more than deserves the Cy Young award.