Home Run Recap: Josh Hamilton

By now, we've all heard about Josh Hamilton's historic four homer night in Baltimore.  Here's a look at his slugging percentage heat map prior to last night's game:

Hamilton hits for power mostly on pitches middle-in.  However, all of the pitches that he took deep last night were on the outer half of the plate.

(Click image for HR video)The first pitch Hamilton saw he took over the center field fence for a two-run homer.  You can see from the heat map that the pitch was outside Hamilton's main power zone.

(Click image for HR video)This second HR off Jake Arrieta came on a pitch way outside Hamilton's power zone and on the very border of the strike zone.  It was a 93 MPH sinker that, while not in a terrible location, was left up enough for Hamilton to drive the other way.

(Click image for HR video)This 78 MPH slider from Zach Phillips was left up and right in a spot Hamilton hits particularly well.

(Click image for HR video)The last HR from Hamilton came on a Darren O'Day sinker that caught too much of the middle of the plate.  However, like the three previous HRs, this pitch was also on the outer half of the plate. 

Hamilton's four home run game (something done only 15 times before) is truly amazing. But the fact that he did it on four pitches mostly outside of his normal power zone makes it all the more interesting.

And just for kicks, here's a look at the pitch location for his double in the 5th inning:

May 8th, 2012 vs. Jake Arrieta (5th inning)Yep, another outside pitch.  It appears Hamilton's power stroke may be expanding. Good news for the Texas Rangers - bad news for the rest of the league.

Hamilton Comes Out Swinging in Walk Year

The Texas Rangers boast the best record (13-3) and run differential (+52) in the majors, and there's no bigger reason than Josh Hamilton. The 31-year-old outfielder, eligible for free agency next winter, has started his walk year by swinging at -- and crushing -- everything in sight. Hamilton has a .418/.438/.776 line and an American League-best 213 OPS+ in 73 plate appearances.

Hamilton has long been a free swinger, but he has taken his hacking to another level so far in 2012. Check out his swing rate on pitches in the strike zone, his chase rate on pitches off the plate, and his overall swing percentage over the past two years:

Year	In-Zone Swing Pct.	Chase Pct.	Overall Swing Rate
2011	80.7	37.7	54.8
2012	86.7	45.3	60.2
MLB Avg, 2011-12	63.6	28.2	45.1

 

No batter in the game this year has swung at a higher percentage of pitches than Hamilton. His extra cuts are coming on low-and-away stuff. Hamilton has swung at 56% of low-and-away pitches so far this season, compared to 44% last year:

Hamilton's swing rate by pitch location, 2011

Hamilton's swing rate by pitch location, 2012

Hamilton hit .179 on out-of-zone pitches in 2011. This season, he's 8-for-24 (.333). He's certainly putting a charge into the ball, as evidenced by his AL-best seven home runs, but he won't keep getting hits on balls put in play at a .420 clip. It remains to be seen whether Hamilton can keep on raking with such a wide strike zone. One thing's clear, though: Hamilton isn't waiting for walks during his walk year.

Hamilton's 50 Percent

After last night's 0-for-4 showing in Game One of the World Series, Josh Hamilton has a tepid .267 batting average, a .286 OBP and a .378 slugging percentage during the 2011 playoffs. That's a far cry from the reigning AL MVP's .298/.346/.536 regular season triple-slash, and Hamilton admitted a few days ago that a lingering left groin injury is hindering him:

"I’m about 50 percent," Hamilton told Ben Rogers in an interview on ESPN 103.3 FM. "I’m going to give you 100 percent of my 50 percent."

"We got a lot of power on the team, so I’m definitely not concerning myself with hitting home runs and producing that way," Hamilton said. "Whatever the game asked me to do -- whether get a guy over, or make a catch in the outfield -- I'm trying to do it. I told Kins after our first at-bat [Saturday], 'Let's not try to do too much.' "

Hamilton may well be 50 percent, but you wouldn't know it judging by the distance of his fly balls hit during the postseason. The lefty slugger's fly balls have traveled an average of 318 feet in October, compared to 292 feet during the regular season. Of course, you could argue that some of Hamilton's deep fly ball outs to left and center field (dark blue on the spray chart below) would be round-trippers if he were healthier:

 Hamilton's fly balls hit during the 2011 playoffs

Hamilton has also expanded his already-large strike zone during the playoffs. He has gone after 44 percent of pitches out of the zone, above his 38 percent average during the regular season. In particular, he's trying to poke pitches well off the outside corner of the plate:

 Hamilton's swing rate by pitch location during 2011 playoffs

Those swings on outer-third offerings probably aren't a good thing. Hamilton murderizes pitches thrown inside, but he doesn't inflict a whole lot of pain on outside pitches. Check out his in-play slugging percentage by pitch location in 2011 (including the playoffs):

Hamilton's in-play slugging percentage by pitch location, 2011 (including playoffs)Pitchers seem well aware of Hamilton's issues with outside pitches. They're throwing lots of pitches low and away, many of them out of the zone but close enough that Hamilton still pulls the trigger. Take a look at opponents' pitch location to Hamilton during the playoffs:

 Opponent pitch location to Hamilton during 2011 playoffs

It's hard to ascribe Hamilton's postseason woes to one factor. Maybe it's his groin, turning would-be homers into warning track shots. Maybe it's his plate approach, as he's going after more outside pitches that give him problems. Or maybe it's just plain old bad luck: we're talking about 49 plate appearances, after all. If a couple of those long fly ball outs cleared the fence, Hamilton's playoff line is suddenly .311/.327/.556, and we're surely not having this discussion. Whatever the reason, the Rangers need vintage Josh Hamilton if they're going to top the Cardinals.