Can Hamilton Handle the Heat?

Josh Hamilton displayed even more of a "grip it and rip it" style than usual last season, hitting a career-high 43 home runs but also striking out in 25.5% of his plate appearances, up from 17.3% in 2011. While the extra whiffs didn't keep Hamilton from raking, his marked increase in Ks is worth discussing considering that the 32-year-old is entering what is typically the early decline phase of a player's career. A closer look at his whiffs reveals a surprising question: Can Hamilton handle the heat?

I'm not asking whether the former Rangers slugger can deal with the scrutiny that inevitably comes with inking a deal that pays him the second-highest annual salary in baseball history. Rather, I'm asking whether Hamilton's lightning-quick bat might be slowing. Here's a look at Hamilton's contact rate by pitch location against fastballs in 2011, and then in 2012:

Hamilton's contact rate vs. fastballs, 2011

Hamilton's contact rate vs. fastballs, 2012

He still connected against inside fastballs, but Hamilton came up empty more often versus middle-away heaters. Overall, Hamilton's fastball miss rate increased from 13.7% in 2011 to 24.6% in 2012. For comparison's sake, the MLB average over the past two seasons is about 16%.

Those extra swings and misses on fastballs didn't harm Hamilton when pitchers had below-average or average velocity. In fact, he actually did more damage against those lower-octane pitches in 2012 than in 2011. It was a different story when pitchers brought the heat, however. Hamilton's miss rate against premium gas (95+ miles per hour) more than quadrupled, from 8.4% to 37%. His slugging percentage cratered from .639 to .231:

	Hamilton in 2011		Hamilton in 2012		MLB Avg. for qualified hitters
Fastball Speed	Miss Rate	Slugging Pct.	Miss Rate	Slugging Pct.	Miss Rate	Slugging Pct.
Under 90 MPH	19	.444	24.2	.558	13.2	.532
90-92 MPH	14.7	.696	21.9	.732	14.2	.521
93-94 MPH	13.5	.489	21.3	.571	16.1	.446
95+ MPH	8.4	.639	37	.231	20.2	.402

In 2011, Hamilton ranked tenth among qualified batters in slugging against 95+ MPH fastballs. This past year, he tied Ichiro and Gordon Beckham for the 16th-lowest slugging percentage versus those pitches. The only hitters to whiff more frequently when pitchers lit up the gun were Danny Espinosa, B.J. Upton, Adam Dunn and Chris Davis.

Even if Hamilton has indeed lost some bat speed, it's not like just any pitcher can exploit his weakness. Out of 282 starting pitchers who tossed a fastball in the majors last season, 110 (39%) reached 95 MPH at least once, and just nine (3.2%) averaged at least 95 MPH. Jason Vargas isn't going to read this and say, "huh, I think I'll just throw 95+ against Hamilton."

But it could become more of an issue in the late innings, when live-armed relievers take over. 226 out of 464 relievers (48.7%) hit 95 MPH on the gun at least once last year, and 40 (8.6%) averaged at least 95 MPH. Hamilton did turn into a mere mortal late in the game, with his on-base-plus slugging percentage in innings 7-9 declining from .863 in 2011 to .759 (the AL average is about .691).

Some of this is nitpicking, of course. Hamilton remains lethal at the dish, and a minority of pitchers is in a position to capitalize on his issues with top-shelf velocity. Still, keep an eye on Hamilton's bat speed -- it could be an important factor late in games and in October.

Josh Hamilton: Angelic Power, Devilish Approach

Josh Hamilton, the Angels' new $125 million man, can look like Reggie Jackson and Reggie Abercrombie -- in the same at-bat. Hamilton boasts the 16th-best OPS+ among major league hitters since the beginning of the 2007 season, but he has reached such heights in spite of a plate approach that earns players lacking his prodigious power a one-way ticket to the Independent Leagues. When Hamilton swings at a strike, he's in a class all his own. But when he chases? Shield your eyes, Angels fans.

Here's a look at Hamilton's 2012 slugging percentage when swinging at a pitch thrown in the strike zone. In short, pitchers are doomed when he takes a cut at an in-zone offering:

Hamilton's slugging percentage when swinging at in-zone pitches, 2012

Hamilton had the best slugging percentage in the game when swinging at an in-zone pitch, and it wasn't even close. He bested runner-up and new teammate Mike Trout by over 100 points:

Highest slugging percentage when swinging at in-zone pitches, 2012

Batter	Slugging Pct.
Josh Hamilton	.839
Mike Trout	.733
Ryan Braun	.731
Chris Davis	.723
Miguel Cabrera	.720
Jay Bruce	.712
Pedro Alvarez	.709
Mark Trumbo	.706
Robinson Cano	.699
Adrian Beltre	.697
MLB Avg. for qualified hitters	.544

So, Hamilton is the game's preeminent slugger when he takes a cut at a hittable pitch. Unfortunately, he also chases more pitches outside of the strike zone (42.5%) than any other qualified hitter. Hamilton turns into a scrub when he goes after those junk pitches:

Hamilton's slugging percentage when swinging at out-of-zone pitches, 2012

Hamilton slugged .280 when swinging at a pitch thrown out of the zone, about 20 points below the MLB average for qualified hitters and lower than L.A.'s slap-and-dash shortstop Erick Aybar (.281). Why is Hamilton so ineffective against out-of-zone pitches? It's because the pitches he chases aren't just off the plate -- they're in the next zip code.

Last year, Hamilton swung at more "non-competitive" pitches than any other hitter in the game. Non-competitive pitches are those thrown at least 18 inches away from the center of the strike zone. These aren't pitches that just miss the corners. Rather, they're guaranteed to be called balls by big blue and are next to impossible to make hard contact against if you're crazy enough to swing at them. Hamilton chased 17 more non-competitive pitches than his closest hacking competitor, Alfonso Soriano:

Most swings against non-competitive pitches, 2012

Batter	Swings vs. non-competitive pitches
Josh Hamilton	118
Alfonso Soriano	101
Adam Jones	84
Mike Moustakas	79
Starlin Castro	77
Danny Espinosa	75
Ryan Braun	74
Dayan Viciedo	66
Mark Trumbo	66
Miguel Cabrera	63

When Hamilton swung at a non-competitive pitch, he went 2-for-46 with 42 strikeouts.

With such an aggressive approach, Hamilton has struck out nearly two-and-a-half times as often as he has walked during his career. His offensive success in spite of his hacking is rare. According to Fangraphs, the only Expansion-Era hitters who managed to be at least 35% above the league average offensively through their age-31 seasons while striking out twice as often as they walked are Frank Howard, Willie Stargell, Dave Parker, Jose Canseco, Ryan Howard, and Hamilton. The common trait among these guys? Mammoth, awe-inspiring power. So long as Hamilton keeps killing strikes, he should produce. But if injuries cut into his pop and he keeps lunging at pitches thrown two feet off the plate, years four and five of this deal could get ugly.

New Halo Josh Hamilton is a Prodigious Slugger

Josh Hamilton has an intriguing life story, but this next chapter will make things interesting in the world of Major League Baseball. He hit the free agent market for the first time in his career following the 2012 season, and he was allowed to choose his team and his price. He chose the Los Angeles Angels of Aneheim, who signed him today for 5 years at $125 million. Hamilton is a polarizing player; at his best, he is one of the best pure hitters in the game, but at his worst, off the field conduct could be detrimental to a team. The Angels will be getting a lot on their plate, but if he can bring his monster home run swing with him, they will instantly move a lot closer to contending. 

Since joining the Texas Rangers Major League club in 2008, Hamilton has been one of the best run producers in the game, failing to reach 25 HR and 94 RBI in only an injury plagued 2009 season. In 2010, he won the MVP after posting a 1.044 OPS, putting him at tops in the league. His ability to take over the inside half of the plate was evident all season, and can be seen in the graphic below. 

As you can see, Hamilton crushed the ball inside that year, but there is more to the story. His ability to hit pitches on the outside for power was significantly less, which pitchers began to notice. In 2010, pitchers focused on the outside corner, but after his big season, since 2011, pitchers have been moving the ball further away from him, yielding mixed results.

At first, Hamilton struggled, seeing his ability to hit for extra bases diminish, but in 2012, he adjusted his swing and shifted his power stroke to cover the entire strike zone.

If the Angels get the 2012 version of Hamilton, who has the ability to cover the whole plate with his power swing, he may be worth every penny of the deal he signed. Putting aside his background, Hamilton has the pure ability to be the best hitter in all of baseball, and if he goes to LA and keeps his mind solely focused on baseball, he could be one of the best free agent sluggers to sign with a new team in recent years.