Beckett Lacking High Heat in 2012

Josh Beckett may be on the block, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. But the chances of a Beckett deal actually happening seem slim: The 32-year-old righty can block a trade thanks to his 10-and-5 rights, and he's owed roughly $37.3 million between now and the end of the 2014 season. Plus, the 51-51 Sox still have some some chance at playing postseason baseball (about 17 percent, per Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds).

Any club considering Beckett would also have to gauge the likelihood of "Josh Beckett, Power Pitcher" making a return. With his fastball velocity down, Beckett's whiff rate on high high heat has been more than cut in half.

Beckett averaged 93 MPH with his fastball and topped out at 96 MPH in 2011. Armed with quality velocity and the ability to reach back for mid-90s gas when necessary, Beckett elevated his fastball often. Check out his fastball location last season:

2011

Beckett threw 47 percent of his fastballs high in the zone in 2011, the seventh-highest clip among MLB starters and well above the 36 percent average. Batters missed 23.1 percent of the time they swung at Beckett's high heat, comfortably above the 20 percent average for starters.

So at 93 MPH and with 96 MPH in his back pocket, Beckett climbed the ladder with his fastball and got plenty of whiffs. This season, however, Beckett is averaging just 91.6 MPH and hasn't cracked 94 MPH on the gun. When Beckett tries to blow a high fastball past the batter, he's failing. Look at the contrast in his contact rate on high fastballs over the past two years:

2011 contact rate on high fastballs

2012 contact rate on high fastballs

Opponents have come up empty just 11.5 percent of the time that have swung at a high fastball from Beckett this season. That puts him in the same territory as Paul Maholm and Henderson Alvarez -- not exactly high-K company. Perhaps realizing he can't beat hitters upstairs, Beckett has stopped trying to do it as much. Here's his fastball location this year. Just 35.8 percent of his fastballs have been thrown high in 2012:

2012

With hitters connecting more on Beckett's lower-octane high fastballs and Beckett responding by living lower in the zone, his overall miss rate with the pitch has dipped from a Strasburgian 17.2 percent in 2011 to a Maholm-esque 12.1 percent in 2012 (14.8 percent average for starters). Beckett's pedestrian fastball is a big reason why the Sox are potentially shopping him. It's also why teams aren't lining up to buy.

Missing: Beckett's Velocity

Suffice it to say, Josh Beckett is not the most popular man in Boston right now. Beckett, who lugs career worsts in strikeout rate (6.8 per nine innings), home runs allowed (2.3 per nine) and ERA+ (71) into his start against the Mariners this afternoon, was booed off the mound at Fenway last Thursday after the Indians knocked him out of the game in the third inning. His defensive, devil-may-care comments after the game about playing golf a day after he was skipped in the rotation due to a lat injury only added to Red Sox Nation's ire.

But the real story regarding Beckett's 2012 season isn't Golf-Gate -- it's that the formerly flame-throwing Texan has lost a few ticks of velocity on all of his pitches. With the exception of his cutter, Beckett's lack of zip has led to a serious drop in swings and misses:

Pitch	2011 Velocity	2012 Velocity	2011 Miss Pct.	2012 Miss Pct.
Fastball	93	91.6	17.2	8.4
Changeup	88.5	88	33.9	25
Curveball	77.4	75.2	38.4	27.3
Cutter	90.5	89.1	24.3	38.3

Beckett's declining fastball is especially alarming. He has sat about 1.5 mph lower on the gun this year, with his miss rate more than cut in half. His miss rate with the pitch is well south the 14 percent average for American League starters this season. The change is most striking in the upper third of the strike zone. Check out hitters' contact rate on high fastballs from Beckett in 2011, and then 2012:

Hitters' contact rate vs. Beckett's high fastballs, 2011

Hitters' contact rate vs. Beckett's high fastballs, 2012

Opponents missed 23 percent of Beckett's high heat in 2011, above the 19 percent average. This year? Just nine percent. With Beckett unable to reach back for a few extra ticks (his fastball maxed out at 96.3 mph last year, but just 93.9 mph in 2012), hitters are hammering the pitch. They slugged .372 against Beckett's fastball last year, far below the .438 average for AL starters. In 2012, they're slugging .544.

Even after a four-game winning streak, Boston still sits in last place in the AL East and has a slightly better than 50/50 shot at making the playoffs, according to Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds Report. If Beckett can move past the media maelstrom and start resembling the power pitcher of years past, the Sox' postseason chances should become higher than that of a coin flip.

Beckett Leans to the Left

Josh Beckett of the Boston Red Sox showed great success against the Yankees this season, particularly against the New York left-handed batters.  The lefties combined for a .156/.239/.219 slash line, striking out 31% of the 71 batters he faced.  What is the secret of his success?

First, Beckett stays in the strike zone:

Josh Beckett, pitch frequency vs. Yankees LHB, 2011.More importantly, he's throwing different speeds to different parts of the strike zone.

Josh Beckett, release velocity vs. Yankees LHB, 2011.He works his fastball higher in the strike zone, and often out of the strike zone.  He's showing fastball where lefties don't like to swing, and the off-speed pitches where they like to chase.  That's resulting the Yankees hitters not swinging at many good pitches:

Josh Beckett, swing rate by Yankees LHB, 2011.The Yankees lefties are giving Beckett the inside part of the plate.  They are also chasing pitches down and away, pitches that likely don't result in good outcomes.  His location, change of speeds and pitch types keep these batters totally off balance.  It's a text book case of how to pitch to batters who have the platoon advantage.