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Entries in Joe Mauer (4)

Thursday
Jun212012

My All Star Starters: AL Catcher

As I told everyone earlier, I will be profiling the main all-star vote getters for each position. Each article will feature the top four vote getters at the position, as well as one of my wild cards. Vote totals can be found here.

Today is all about the junior circuit backstop. These guys have one of the toughest jobs in baseball, squatting behind the dish for nine innings, constantly being required to remain alert and focused on every facet of the game, all the while taking 3-4 ABs per game. At this position, the greatest value lies in durability. Catchers will normally catch four of every five games, usually taking day games off after a night game, but the real all-stars make their time in the game count. 

#1: Mike Napoli, Texas Rangers  2,239,047

Napoli has made his living crushing the ball in Arlington over the past few years, hitting 41 home runs in the last year and a half. Historically, Napoli has annihilated left handed pitching, averaging .312 with a 1.005 OPS between 2008 and 2011. These are all-star type numbers, but this year has proven more difficult for Napoli, who seems lost versus south-paws. He is only managing a .150 AVG with a .604 OPS, significantly lower than his averages and breakout season in 2011. Below is a heat map of Napoli's Slugging percentage versus lefties over the two time periods indicated.

It seems that Napoli may have been figured out because he has been baffled. His general line from this season is as follows:

60 G, 45 H, 3 2b, 2 3b, 11 HR, 29 RBI, 29 BB, 67 SO, .234 AVG, .346 OBP, .443 SLG.

Per usual, Napoli has his long ball stroke intact, his 11 homers ranking him third among league leaders at the position. The problem is, there are not enough guys getting on in front of him (mainly due to Josh Hamilton clearing the bases before him, but we'll get to him when we get to AL Outfielders). The most alarming statistic there may be the strikeouts, pacing the American League lead at his position. While Napoli may have the big name, the numbers from last year, and a monstrous power stroke, The numbers just don't indicate an all-type season out of an all-star player.

 

#2: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins 1,283,804

As chronicled in a previous article, Joe Mauer needed to be a force if the Twins wanted to contend this year, and thus far, some of his numbers have returned to form, in conjunction with his return to health. So far, his power numbers haven't returned to his Most Valuable Player Season, but the average is there, pacing the American League qualifiers at .314. He also has more walks than strikeouts (37/31), which has helped to bolster his strong .415 OBP. He has had a .355 batting average on balls in play, extremely close to his career average of .349, so there is little doubt that this Joe Mauer is legit. His righty/lefty splits have been fantastic, and he has taken a liking to left handed pitching, hitting a solid .356 in lefty-lefty matchups. Mauer's issue so far has been against the soft stuff.

As long as Mauer can continue to take advantage of mistake fastballs left on the inner half of the plate, he'll be a .300 hitter again by years end. His season line to this point is as follows:

60 G, 69 H, 14 2b, 1 3b, 3 HR, 33 RBI, 3 SB, 37 BB, 31 SO, .314 BA, .415 OBP, .427 SLG.

According to this line, Mauer is out hitting Napoli in almost every major category for catchers except HRs, which he makes up plenty for in terms of doubles boosting his slugging percentage. The 33 RBI tie Mauer for third in the American league at catcher thus far, indicating his ability to hit in the clutch with men in scoring position (.377 w/RISP and 27 RBI).

Mauer with Runners in Scoring Position

Mauer has been a stud and is definitely worthy of a few more all-star votes than he is getting. Minnesota fans need to hit the ballots and get this guy up there. 

 

#3. Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles 1,242,247

Early in his career, Wieters was heralded as the second coming of Mark Teixeira, but it took a long time for him to really get accustomed to the major leagues. Young offensive and defensive backstops are few and far between in baseball, increasing Wieters' value to the O's as a centerpiece in their future plans. For this piece, let's play guess that player.

Player A: 60 AB, 24 H, 6 2b, 1 HR, 7 BB, 13 SO, 10 RBI, .400 AVG, .471 OBP, .583 SLG

Player B: 164 AB, 33 H, 8 2b, 8 HR, 19 BB, 35 K, 22 RBI, .201 AVG, .294 OBP, .396 SLG

Did you get it? Player A is Matt Wieters from the right side of the plate while Player B is Wieters on the left. When facing right handed pitching, Wieters has had trouble with balls on the inner half, but he has pulled half 7 of his 8 HRs from that side which means he is out in front of balls on the outer half of the plate. When facing lefties, Wieters has shown a little more power throughout the zone, as well as the ability to hit for a significantly higher average. 

Wieters still has some work to do, but he is just a tweak here or there from being an all-star for years to come. Wieters line this season:

62 G, 57 H, 14 2b, 1 3b, 9 HR, 32 RBI, 26 BB, 48 SO, .254 BA, .341 OBP, .446 SLG.

Wieters leads all catchers in games so far, is tied with Mauer for the lead in doubles, tied for fourth in home runs and fifth in RBIs. He is in third in AVG among qualifying hitters, but not very much better then Napoli at the top of this list. While I do not think that this is Wieters' year to start, he certainly has all-star quality numbers and should definitely be considered for a nod on the bench.

 

#4. AJ Pierzynski, Chicago White Sox 1,048,603

So who expected this? An absolutely monster year out of Pierzynski has him in fourth place in the all-star voting. Over the last four seasons, AJ has averaged approximately 11 HRs per season; This year he already has 12. Over the past four seasons he has averaged about 53 RBI; this year he has 41. Many baseball fans and fantasy junkies probably thought this was some kind of fluke, because it isn't often that a 35 year old ball player can flip a switch and revert back to prime form, especially at the catcher position. And believe it or not, his batting average on balls in play is actually lower than his average, pointing to a notion that he might actually be getting robbed of a few hits here and there. So what could possibly be the secret to his success? His swing rate is up, his miss rate is up, his in play rate is down, and his chase rate is up, but he continues to hit. Most of his hitting numbers are right around his career average, except for an astonishing 19.7% HR/FB ratio. 

If you take a look at the general location of Pierzynski's dingers, he has been unbelievable at pulling mistake pitches (middle-in) out of the park. AJ's Stats:

59 G, 61 H, 8 2b, 2 3b, 12 HR, 41 RBI, 14 BB, 27 SO, .285 BA, .330 OBP, .509 SLG.

Pierzynski could absolutely afford to take more walks, but he has also managed to limit his strikeout numbers, constantly putting the ball in play in his at bats, and when you do that, good things happen. His average ranks him second among qualifiers and he is second in the bigs in HRs and his SLG paces all qualifiers. This guy has been an absolute machine and absolutely deserves an all-star appearance just by straight numbers alone.

 

Wild Card: Jarrod Saltalamaccia, Boston Red Sox

My wild card All-Star for this segment is "Salty". This kid has been clutch in every sense of the word, and he is finally blossoming into the talent that the Red Sox and Rangers believed he would eventually be. The second switch hitter on this list, Salty leads all AL catchers in HRs and though he doesn't qualify, he has the highest SLG. Salty will not be voted in by fans, but managers and coaches could see how he has come up big for the Red Sox this year with some clutch extra base hits and decide that he is worthy of his first all-star appearance.

54 G, 46 H, 12 2b, 0 3b, 13 HR, 34 RBI, 12 BB, 49 SO, .263 BA, .307 OBP, .554 SLG

 

MY RESULTS:

Starter: AJ Pierzynski

Reserve: Joe Mauer

3: Mike Napoli

4: Matt Wieters

 

Monday
Sep192011

Spoiled M&Ms

As the Twins play out the string, looking to end an eight-game losing streak and avoid the ignominy of a 100-loss season, the M&M boys watch helplessly from the dugout.

Justin Morneau has endured a nightmare year in which he continued to feel the effects of a concussion suffered in 2010 while also having surgery to repair a herniated disc in his neck. He continued his game of human Operation today by having procedures to remove a cyst from his left knee and a bone spur from his right foot. Joe Mauer, meanwhile, missed time with leg weakness and a stiff neck and was recently shut down due to pneumonia. Altogether, Morneau (-0.3 WAR) and Mauer (1.7 WAR) made $37 million while combining for 1.4 Wins Above Replacement. Last year, they teamed up for 10.7 WAR.

Morneau never looked healthy or comfortable at the plate in 2011, batting .227/.285/.333 and hitting just four home runs in 288 plate appearances. His strike-zone judgment took a tumble, with his chase rate climbing from 30 percent to 34 percent, and the fly balls that he hit were downright tame. Morneau's average fly ball distance fell from 315 feet in 2010 to just 292 feet in 2011. For comparison, Alexi Casilla's average fly ball distance this season is 296 feet.

With an ailing Morneau unable to drive the ball, his slugging sweet spot low and inside all but disappeared:

Morneau's in-play slugging percentage by pitch location, 2010

Morneau's in-play slugging percentage by pitch location, 2011Mauer's offensive malaise wasn't nearly as severe -- his .287/.360/.368 slash in 333 PA was basically league-average production in a year in which run-scoring dipped yet again. But even so, his power declined markedly for the second straight season. Mauer mashed 28 homers and slugged .587 in 2009, and followed that up with a campaign that more closely resembled his previous work (nine HR, .469 slugging percentage). This year, he went deep only three times. Not surprisingly, his average fly ball distance is down, too:

2009: 330 feet

2010: 315 feet

2011: 306 feet

Mauer's biggest problem this season came against breaking stuff. He chased more curveballs and sliders in 2011, and managed just two extra-base knocks:

Mauer Vs. Curveballs and Sliders

2009: 20.1 Chase Pct., .330 Slugging Pct.

2010: 23.8 Chase Pct., .377 Slugging Pct.

2011: 27.7 Chase Pct., .247 Slugging Pct.

2009-2011 MLB Avg for non-pitchers: 30.2 Chase Pct., .361 Slugging Pct.

Mauer hit a ground ball 71 percent of the time that he put a curveball or slider in play, the fifth-highest rate among MLB batters. That goes a long way toward explaining why his overall ground ball rate spiked from under 50 percent in 2009-2010 to over 56 percent. If he's a catcher who dabbles at DH and first base, his bat is still quite valuable. If he's mostly or entirely a 1B/DH, then the Twins are in trouble.

With Morneau owed $28 million combined in 2012-13 and Mauer making $23 million annually through 2018, the hopes of the franchise rest upon their achy backs. The M&M boys need to get healthy. Otherwise, the next decade of Twins baseball could melt right in Bill Smith's hands.

Thursday
Aug182011

Mauer's Off-Speed Judgment Off

Joe Mauer of the Minnesota Twins lost his ability to hit sliders and curve balls decently in 2011.  From 2008-2010 Joe hit .275/.327/.349 on those pitches combined.  They obviously give him trouble, but if that's the worst a batter is going to hit on a pitch or pitches, he's probably doing okay. In 2011, Mauer hits .178/.186/.191 on those two pitches.  What happened?

Even though Joe didn't hit all that well on those pitches, he showed decent strike zone judgment on them.  From 2008-2010, he only took 28.5% of them for strikes, and chased 20.9% out of the strike zone.  You can see that in his swing rate on those pitches:

Joe Mauer, swing rate on sliders and curve balls, 2008-2010.In 2011, 42.5% of those pitches go for called strikes, and he's chasing 30.3% out of the zone.  Again, you can see the difference in his swing rate heat map.

Joe Mauer, swing rate on sliders and curve balls, 2011.He's clearly taking pitches at which he should be swinging, and trying to hit too many pitches off the corners and edges.  He putting a higher proportion of these pitches in play, 60.2% versus 50.2% in the three previous seasons, but because he's making contact on pitches outside the strike zone, those balls in play are turning into outs, as he has a meager .218  BABIP.

Joe Mauer's batting eye made him an MVP candidate.  As far as these two pitches are concerned, he lost that eye this season, and it's responsible for a large portion of his fall off.