Cano's Comps: The Good, The Bad and the Ugly

Whether he re-signs with the Yankees or takes his talents elsewhere following the 2013 season, Robinson Cano is about to become an absurdly wealthy man. Cano's blend of contact, power and durability, coupled with new TV money swelling owners' pockets, could make him the game's highest paid player this winter.

Is Cano, 30, a good bet to keep producing as he ages? 

To explore that question, I found some players comparable to Cano using Baseball-Reference's Play Index tool and charted their career paths in their thirties. I considered Expansion-Era second basemen who had at least a 110 OPS+, a .280 average and 50+ home runs during their twenties. While you can quibble with those cutoffs, they give us a sample of keystone players who produced at the plate with both contact and power (Cano has a career 123 OPS+ to this point, with a .308 average and 177 homers).

The results are mostly positive, but Cano's comps also include a pair of players who declined dramatically and one active guy who's still great -- when he's capable of taking the field.

Here's the good, the bad and the ugly when it comes to Cano's possible post-twenties career path.

The Good

Lou Whitaker 

• During his 20s: 5,394 PA, 110 OPS+, 37.3 WAR
• During his 30s: 4,573 PA, 125 OPS+, 34.1 WAR

Sweet Lou was the rare player who was every bit as productive in his thirties as in his twenties. He remained a power threat deep into his thirties, actually hitting far more homers after age 29 (151) than before (93). He also stuck at second base for the duration of his 19-year career with the Tigers, saving a collective 13 runs compared to an average second baseman after age 30, according to Baseball-Reference. Whitaker represents the best-case scenario for Cano: he raked, remained relatively healthy and retained his range.

Ryne Sandberg 

• During his 20s: 5,385 PA, 112 OPS+, 36 WAR
• During his 30s: 3,897 PA, 118 OPS+, 28.9 WAR

Ryno emerged as a huge power threat at second base, leading the league with 40 home runs during his age 30 season and finishing with the career home run record among players at the keystone (since broken by Jeff Kent). Sandberg racked up a ton of value from age 30 to 33 (135 OPS+, 24.5 WAR), then got off to a poor start in 1994 and retired. He sat out his age 35 season but returned to the Cubs the following year, producing modestly through age 37.

Roberto Alomar 

• During his 20s: 6,232 PA, 119 OPS+, 40.9 WAR
• During his 30s: 4,168 PA, 112 OPS+, 22 WAR

Alomar hit for average during his early Padres years, but he became an offensive dynamo during his mid-twenties as he combined excellent contact skills, a good eye and ample power, all while collecting a cabinet full of Gold Gloves.  He remained a major threat at the dish through age 33, posting a career-best 150 OPS+ and hitting 20 homers during his last year in Cleveland, but his power plummeted upon a trade to the Mets that winter (90 OPS+, 11 HR). He was done as a regular after another sub-par season at age 35 (80 OPS+) and retired after his age 36 season.

Chase Utley 

• During his 20s: 3,126 PA, 128 OPS+, 33 WAR
• During his 30s: 2,014 PA, 123 OPS+, 20.3 WAR

Utley was the gold standard among second baseman prior to his injury issues and Cano's ascension as an all-around offensive threat. Now, we're not really sure what to expect. Utley is still darned good when he's on the field, but his knees are held together with Super Glue, Big League Chew and platelet-rich plasma injections from the Philadelphia Phanatic. He could be an MVP candidate in 2013, or he could play 50 games. I placed Utley in the "good" here, but would the Yankees really be pleased if they inked Cano to a megadeal and he provided intermittent, injury-plagued excellence? Thankfully, Cano has been just about the most durable player in the game to this point. But predicting durability can be a fool's errand -- Utley averaged about 675 plate appearances as a full-time player from age 26 to 29.

The Bad

Chuck Knoblauch 

• During his 20s: 5,279 PA, 112 OPS+, 38.9 WAR
• During his 30s: 2,108 PA, 91 OPS+, 3.1 WAR

Knoblauch batted nearly .300 during before his 30th birthday, and he ramped up his power production as he reached his mid-to-late twenties (he belted 50 homers and slugged .453 from age 26-29, compared to 10 homers and a .373 slugging percentage from age 22-25). After that, the wheels came off. Knoblauch had a good age 30 season at the plate (118 OPS+), but he fell apart in the field as he struggled to make even the most routine throws to first base. Baseball-Reference estimates that he was 15 runs worse than an average defensive second baseman that year. He was even worse the at age 31 (-10 runs in just a half season's worth of games), and he was a full-time left fielder/DH by age 32. After one wretched season in Kansas City, Knoblauch retiredly

The Ugly

Jose Vidro 

• During his 20s: 3,895 PA, 113 OPS+, 15.5 WAR
• During his 30s: 1,813 PA, 96 OPS+, -0.6 WAR

Vidro never reached the heights that Cano has during his career, but his post-20s playing record represents every fear talent evaluators have about second baseman declining sharply coming true. Vidro routinely hit double-digit homers and produced scads of contact, batting .304 with 101 homers through age 29, yet he never topped seven homers and hit a hollow .284 in his 30s. Knee, ankle and hamstring injuries made him a statue at second, and he mostly DHed after being traded to Seattle before his age 32 season. Suffice it to say, his bat didn't play at the position. Vidro was done at age 33.

FYI:

I excluded Alfonso Soriano because he was moved off the position at 30 and sent to Wrigley's outfield.

Edwin Jackson, Slider Specialist

At long last, Edwin Jackson can unpack -- we think. While his four-year, $52 million contract with the Cubs doesn't include a no-trade clause, Jackson should at least call Wrigley Field home for the next couple of years. Considering that the 29-year-old righty was on pace to obliterate Octavio Dotel's record for most teams played for in a career -- Jackson has been a Dodger, Devil Ray, Tiger, Diamondback, White Sock, Cardinal and National, and was technically a Blue Jay for a brief moment (though he never suited up) -- that's a step in the right direction.

It's surprising that it has taken Jackson this long to settle down in one city. He might not be the Cy Young contender that people envisioned when he celebrated his 20th birthday by outdueling Randy Johnson during his MLB debut, but Jackson has been above-average since he reached Detroit (106 ERA+ from 2009-12) while tossing slightly over 200 innings pitched per season. That combination of quality and quantity has made Jackson the 29th-most valuable starter over that time frame, judging by Baseball-Reference's Wins Above Replacement.

Jackson's slider is the main reason that he has evolved from a perceived bust to a solid starter making serious bank. Here's a closer look at his mid-to-high-80s breaker, which ranks among the game's best out pitches.

• Jackson threw his slider 29.3% of the time in 2012, the ninth-highest clip among MLB starters. Ryan Dempster (39.5%), Madison Bumgarner (35.6%), Bud Norris (36.3%), Ervin Santana (36.3%), Francisco Liriano (32.5%), Jason Marquis (32.1%), CC Sabathia (31.8%) and Bruce Chen (29.9%) were the only starters to rely on the slide-piece more often.
• With a miss rate approaching 50%, Jackson got swings and misses with his slider more frequently than any other starter in the game:

Highest slider whiff rate among MLB starters, 2012 (minimum 300 thrown)

Pitcher	Miss Pct.
Edwin Jackson	48.5%
Zack Greinke	44.7%
Yu Darvish	44.2%
James McDonald	43.9%
Francisco Liriano	43.3%
CC Sabathia	43.0%
Colby Lewis	42.5%
Clayton Kershaw	42.3%
Derek Holland	41.8%
Max Scherzer	41.7%
MLB Avg. for SP	30.9%

• Jackson uses his slider as a chase pitch, placing just 37.3% of them within the strike zone. The average for starters, by contrast, is about 47%. Hitters can't seem to lay off those off-the-plate-sliders. Check out Jackson's swing rate by pitch location with his slider, and then the league average for right-handed starting pitchers:

        Jackson's slider swing rate             Avg. slider swing rate for SP

Jackson boasted the highest slider chase rate (44.1%) among NL starters last year. In the AL, only Colby Lewis (50.7% slider chase rate), Brian Matusz (48.3%), Yu Darvish (44.6%) and Liriano (44.6%) made batters hack at more would-be balls.

• Fanning 111 hitters with his out pitch, Jackson led NL starters in slider strikeouts and trailed just Sabathia (138 slider Ks) among all starters.
• While the slider is usually more effective against same-handed hitters, Jackson actually got better results with the pitch against lefties. He held left-handers to a .299 slugging percentage against his slider, compared to .361 against righties. For comparison's sake, righty starters surrendered a collective .386 slugging percentage with sliders against lefty batters last season, and a .350 slugging percentage against righties.

Monster Mash: Red Sox Land New Corner Outfielder in Jonny Gomes

Throughout the offseason, the Red Sox have been working on a deal with free agent outfielder Cody Ross to keep him in a Red Sox uniform for the foreseeable future. With the chance that they could lose out on a bidding war for his services, the Red Sox acquired a right handed hitting force in Jonny Gomes for 2 years and $10 million. With the way the market is playing out, this could turn into a steal for the team, as there is slim picking for quality corner outfielders.

The Red Sox need to return to playing better in Fenway Park this season. After many seasons of success at home, Boston lost more contests at home than it won, which did not please the Fenway Faithful. Gomes has had an incredible power stroke for his career, albeit low AVG numbers. Boston is trying to return to its roots and the strategy that won them a championship: seeing pitches and getting on base. Gomes had a .377 OBP last season, which was significantly higher than Cody Ross (.326). Considering the difference in price there could be between these two contracts, Boston may have made the correct call. This will not stop them from attempting to bring in Ross to man the other corner position, but having the powerful bat of Gomes next year certainly will not hurt them.

Take a look at his hit chart below:

Jonny Gomes hit spread for 2012 with the Oakland AthleticsGomes was quite clearly a dead-pull hitter; all eighteen of his home runs and eight of his ten doubles went to left field. This is the kind of hitter the Red Sox would love to have hitting balls in Fenway, considering the looming wall in left field. 

Gomes has also had excellent career splits versus left-handed pitching, something that has been lacking in Boston over the last few years. He joins the Red Sox after a season in which he compiled a .974 OPS against lefties including eleven of his eighteen home runs. That number would have made him third on the team behind David Ortiz and Ross.

Gomes SLUG versus left-handed pitching in 2012

Gomes will be a great fit as a hitter at Fenway Park, and if he manages to learn the wall in left field, his limited fielding ability may not hurt the Red Sox all that much. Pending other moves that the team makes, he could be in a platoon role with other players, serving primarily as a player when the team faces lefties. He is also well known as an excellent clubhouse presence, something the Sox need in spades. 

In limited time during the 2012 season (97 games, 333 PA), Gomes put up a stat line of .262/.377/.491/.868/18/47 (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS/HR/RBI). If given an opportunity, Gomes could provide very similar numbers to Jason Bay circa 2009 during his brief tenure with the team (.267/.384/.537/.921/36/119). This would be a welcome addition and at $5 million per year, it could be one of the biggest steals of the offseason.