Rockies Versus Freddy Freeman

Thursday afternoon, Fredie Freeman of the Atlanta Braves hit his 15th homer of the season, but it was his sixth longball against the Colorado Rockies. The question then comes up, "What are the Rockies doing wrong?" He's played one tenth of his games against Colorado, but those games produced 40% of his home runs.

When it comes to slugging, Freeman covers the strike zone very well.

Freddy Freeman, in play slugging, 2011.Looking at that heat map, pitchers should aim low and away.  In fact, that's what they do:

Freddy Freeman, pitch frequency, 2011.The Rockies staff, however, has not been consistent in hitting the lower outside corner.

Freddy Freeman, pitch frequency against Colorado, 2011.The Rockies staff put plenty of pitches inside and up in the middle of the plate this season, just where Freeman likes to smack the ball.  Today's home run was outside, but it was a slider that didn't slide and a bit up.  Freeman's home runs against Colorado came from poor execution by the Rockies staff.

Free Swinging Freddy Freeman

Freddy Freeman of the Atlanta Braves started a hot streak on May 16th.  Since that date through June 8th he compiled a .342/.375/.500 slash line, good for a .380 wOBA.  The relative closeness of his BA and OBP raises a red flag however.  His walk rate is way down in this period.  Now, that by itself is not a concern.  He's collecting a ton of hits, and given the choice between a hit and a walk for getting on base, take the hit.  The low walk rate might also indicate Freeman is picking up bad habits.

Pitchers worked Freeman away during this period:

Freddy Freeman, pitch frequency, May 16- June 8 2011.Freddy is getting good results no matter where the ball is pitched:

Freddy Freeman, in play average, May 16 - June 8, 2011.Not the three hot zones out of the strike zone, one up and away, one down and in and one down and away.  He's chasing balls way out of the strike zone:

Freddy Freeman, swing rate, May 16 - June 8, 2011.You can see the bad habit developing.  The green areas represent 50% swings, and most of those are way out of the strike zone.  Plenty of yellow and orange shows up there as well.  With all those swings, he's not giving himself a chance to get in good counts for hitters:

Freddy Freeman, ball rate, May 16 - June 8, 2011.It looks like his success on some outside pitches is causing him to go after more of them.  That may work short term, but once pitchers realize they don't need to throw strikes to get Freddy to swing, he'll receive fewer and fewer pitches he can drive.