Liriano Thriving Low in the Zone

You could forgive Pirates fans if, upon hearing their club signed Francisco Liriano over the winter, they had bad flashbacks to Oliver Perez. The comparison wasn't hard to make: A tantalizing lefty with low 90s gas, a wipeout slider...and the aim of a blind-folded dart-thrower. Liriano issued five free passes per nine innings during the 2011-12 seasons, racking up a five-plus ERA and even getting banished to the bullpen for a time last May. Add in a broken non-throwing arm that wiped out the first month of his season, and expectations were low that Liriano would show the form that earned him All-Star status in 2006 and AL Comeback Player of the Year in 2010.

But Liriano is doing just that. He has punched out 39 batters and walked just nine through 29 innings pitched, and he has yet to surrender a single home run. The 29-year-old is keeping the ball in the park by pounding hitters at the knees: He has thrown 62% of his pitches to the lower-third of the strike zone, the highest clip among starting pitchers throwing at least 400 pitches this season and well above his 52% mark from 2012. Here's more on Liriano's prowess low in the zone:

• Liriano is inducing whiffs 50% of the time that hitters swing at his low stuff, narrowly beating out baseball's strikeout king, Yu Darvish, for the best mark among starting pitchers.

Liriano's contact rate by pitch location, 2013

• Liriano is also getting plenty of swings on low pitches thrown off the plate, as his 36% chase rate attests. The only starters with a higher chase rate on low stuff are Shaun Marcum, Johnny Cueto, Hisashi Iwakuma, Ervin Santana and Felix Hernandez.
• With all of those whiffs and chases, Liriano is limiting batters to a .191 slugging percentage on low pitches. That's 12th-lowest among starters and over 120 points below the big league average (.314), though A.J. Burnett (.153 opponent slugging percentage on low pitches) still has bragging rights in the Pirates clubhouse.

Liriano Keeping Ball Down, Getting Chases

While the Minnesota Twins are buried at the bottom of the AL Central standings, few players have more riding on the rest of the 2012 season than Francisco Liriano. The 28-year-old lefty hits free agency this winter with an uneven resume that includes nearly a K per inning but also an Oliver Perez-esque walk rate and a middling career ERA+ of 98. He can look unhittable and bound for the next bus to Rochester within the same at-bat, much less start or season.

Liriano's walk year got off to a disastrous start, as he walked nearly as many hitters than he punched out, got taken deep often and was briefly banished to the bullpen. But, since returning to the rotation in late May, Liriano has been a different pitcher. His whiffs are up, his walks are down and his homer rate has all but disappeared:

First Five Starts (April 7-May 7): 26.2 IP, 7.1 K/9, 6.4 BB/9, 2.02 HR/9

Six Starts Since Returning to Rotation (May 30-June 25): 37.1 IP, 9.6 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.24 HR/9

All three of those happy trends hearken back to Liriano keeping the ball down. Check out his pitch location before he was booted to the bullpen, and since returning to the starting five:

Liriano's pitch location from April 7-May 7, 2012Liriano's pitch location from May 30-June 25, 2012To open the year, Liriano threw about 46 percent of his pitches low in the strike zone. Following his return to the rotation after spending some time in relief purgatory, Liriano has located 54 percent of his pitches down. That, in turn, has led to a spike in ground ball rate:

Liriano's ground ball rate by pitch location, April 7-May 7, 2012

Liriano's ground ball rate by pitch location, May 30-June 25, 2012

Liriano induced grounders 41 percent of the time before losing his starting spot. Since getting it back, he's burning worms 54 percent of the time. That's a good way to cut down on the whiplash from serving up some many homers.

Keeping the ball down has other benefits for Liriano as well. He's getting more chases on the low pitches he throws (35 percent since returning to the rotation, up from 31 percent prior) and hitters are swinging through more of those pitches at the knees. Here's his contact rate by pitch location from April 7 to May 7, and then from May 30 through last night's seven-inning gem versus the White Sox:

Liriano's contact rate by pitch location, April 7-May 7, 2012Liriano's contact rate by pitch location, May 30-June 25, 2012

Liriano got batters to miss 36 percent of the time they offered at a low pitch before going to the 'pen. Since returning to the rotation, batters are coming up empty half the time they swing at a pitch Liriano keeps down in the zone.

So, which is the "real" Francisco Liriano? The wild, gopher ball machine throwing a 91-92 MPH fastball and a flat low-80s slider to start the year or the dominant lefty sitting 93 MPH with a wicked mid-80s breaker we've seen since late May? That's a question that will soon cost GMs sleep.

Francisco Liriano's No Hitter

A quick glance at Francisco Liriano's (Minnesota Twins) pitch location heat map from his no-hitter versus the Chicago White Sox. Click here to view the complete no hitter pitch log.