Justin Verlander's Fastball is Just Fine, Thanks

Justin Verlander is dealing yet again in 2013, punching out over a batter per inning pitched and holding a Bob Gibson-esque 1.83 ERA. Yet despite that dominance, some scouts are worried that the game's highest paid pitcher isn't making radar guns malfunction like he used to. But Verlander? He's not concerned:

"No, I know where I'm at and I feel like it's gotten a little bit better every start," the 30-year-old said before [Thursday's] game. "I threw a lot of innings last year and I was basically three weeks behind coming into spring training this year on purpose but I think it seems like for the most part our entire team has started to get better velocity wise." (Detroit Free Press)

Verlander's velocity is down. He's averaging 93.2 MPH with his fastball in 2013, compared to 94.6 MPH last year. And while he reached back for a 101.5 MPH Hellfire missile in 2012, Verlander has maxed out at 96.6 this season. Even so, Tigers fans shouldn't start puffing packs of Marlboro Reds like manager Jim Leyland just yet. Here are some reasons that Verlander's fastball looks just fine.

• Pitchers do typically come out of the gate in April with less-than optimal velocity, Verlander included. His 93.2 MPH average doesn't look so bad when you consider that he's dealing with a blister on his right thumb, and that he averaged 94 MPH in April of 2012.
• Like Verlander himself said, his fastball velocity is getting better by the start. He averaged just 92.4 MPH on Opening Day against the Twins. By the time he faced the Twinkies again on April 30, he was up to an average of 93.4 MPH.
• Slower or not, Verlander's fastball is making hitters look foolish. Verlander's fastball miss rate is down a bit in 2013 (18%) compared to 2012 (20%), but batters actually have a lower slugging percentage against the pitch this season (.241) than last (.389).

With Improved Fastball Command, Felix Still King

Not since the days of Roger Clemens, Doc Gooden and Bret Saberhagen has a starting pitcher had as good of a start to his career as Felix Hernandez. But the curly-haired teenager throwing upper 90s gas who debuted with the Mariners back in 2005 would scarcely recognize the crafty 26-year-old who's set to sign a contract extension that will pay him the highest average annual salary ($27.1 million) ever for a pitcher. King Felix's fastball no longer sizzles toward home plate, but he has extended his reign with improved command of the pitch.

Hernandez's fastball averaged 94.4 miles per hour at the beginning of the Pitch F/X era in 2008, a mark bested only by Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana among qualified starting pitchers. Last year, Felix's average velocity with both his four-seam fastball and sinker was 92.4 MPH -- just a tick above the 91.2 MPH average for right-handers. Yet, batters didn't really do all that much more damage against Hernandez's fastball last year (.410 slugging percentage) than they did in 2008 (.396).

How has Felix remained so effective with seemingly run-of-the-mill velocity? By hitting his spots. He's throwing fewer fastballs over the heart of the plate as he makes the transition from flame-thrower to marksman:

Hernandez's percentage of fastballs thrown over the horizontal middle of the plate, 2008-12

2008: 22.9%

2009: 22.4%

2010: 23.4%

2011: 20.3%

2012: 19.8%

MLB AVG for SP: 23.6%

Fastballs left over the middle of the plate tend to get thumped (batters slugged .502 last year) and Felix's is no exception (.525 opponent slugging percentage), so avoiding that spot is key. Few did a better job of that in 2012: Dan Haren (19.6%), Doug Fister (19.5%), Jason Vargas (19.1%), Tommy Milone (18.9%), and Jeremy Hellickson (18.5%) were the only AL starters who threw a lower percentage of fastballs over the horizontal middle of the plate.

King Felix, power pitcher, is dead. Long live King Felix, command-and-control artist.  

April Fastballs

All data from start of season through April 30th, 2012

All data from start of season through April 30th, 2012Ted Lilly might not have the most explosive fastball (average 2012 velocity: 87.2 mph - bottom 5% of the league), but he's used it quite effectively. He's given up just 2 hits in 26 AB determined by it.  All ten flyballs have been converted into outs, as have two of the four line drives.  In his previous three seasons, Lilly's fastball has had a .248 fly ball average and a .673 line drive average. It's safe to say his current rate is unsustainable.