The Red Sox Regression

Take a look at the AL East standings on April 19 and the Red Sox results since.

On April 19:

April 19 - May 15, 2013:

Nobody could have expected the Sox to have maintained their torrid start, so a regression was expected and occurred.

Let's examine some reasons for the Sox return to Earth 

• The Red Sox team ERA through April 19 was 2.69; since, 4.82.
• Starters ERA through April 19 was 2.23; since, 4.67.
• Relievers ERA through April 19 was 3.43; since, 5.16. 

Take a look at some individual differences

The Sox are heavily reliant upon their top three starters in their rotation and they have regressed:

• Up to April 19, Clay Buchholz had a 0.41 ERA, after, a still very good, 2.45 
• Up to April 19, Jon Lester had a 1.73 ERA, after a fair, 3.71 
• Up to April 19, Ryan Dempster had a 2.65 ERA, after, a very shaky, 4.35

The Bullpen

Their bullpen has been hit with a season-ending injury to Joel Hanrahan and a DL-inducing injury to Andrew Bailey.

However:

• Up to April 19, Junichi Tazawa had a 1.12 ERA, after, a not very good, 5.40 
• Up to April 19, Koji Uehara had a 0.00 ERA, after, a not very good, 4.50

Let's move to the offense, which has improved

• Up to April 19, the team was hitting .257, with an OBP of .333, and slugging .411. 
• Since April 19, the team is hitting .270, with an OBP of .345, and slugging .459.

The individual batting averages have been a mixed bag before and after April 19

• The always hard playing Dustin Pedroia was hitting .310 up to April 19 and .355 since then. 
• Jarrod Saltalamacchia has also improved hitting .231 up to April 19 and .286 since then. 
• Stephen Drew has found his stroke jumping from .087 to .278. 
• Daniel Nava has fallen going from .333 up to April 19 and .265 since then. 
• Similarly, Shane Victorino has gone from .322 up to April 19 and .269 since then. 
• Mike Napoli has remained consistent .262/.261. 
• However, Will Middlebrooks, Jonny Gomes and David Ross still are not hitting well.

So, where's the rub?

• Up to April 19, the team was hitting .305 with runners in scoring position.
• Since April 19, the team is hitting .255 w/RISP.

• With runners in scoring position both Dustin Pedroia and Daniel Nava have been consistently good with numbers over .300 before and after April 19. 
•  Since April 19, Stephen Drew has gone from .000 to .368 w/RISP and Jonny Gomes has gone from .000 to .286. 
•  But it has hurt that the red-hot Mike Napoli has dropped from .333 to .258 since April 19. 
• Jacoby Ellsbury has gone from .400 to .118 since April 19. 
• And Saltalamacchia and Middlebrooks have both been ineffective all season long with runners in scoring position.

Perhaps you are wondering why I chose April 19th as my cutoff date

You see, on April 20 David Ortiz made his season's debut.

And while you certainly can't complain about Big Papi's .329 average with five homers and 20 RBI or his .321 average w/RISP, you do have to wonder if the team let down after his return or it was simply an expected regression to the mean.

We'll learn a ot more about this team over the next 25 games.

Top 16 Fantasy Baseball Second Basemen

Second base is a position bred from defensive deficiency. If you look at every starting second baseman in the majors, odds are they came up through the minors as a shortstop. Since second basemen require less defensive ability than its counterpart (shortstop), more offense is expected.

The top 16 Second Basemen

1. Robinson Cano, NYY
2. Dustin Pedroia, BOS
3. Aaron Hill, ARI
4. Ian Kinsler, TEX
5. Brandon Phillips, CIN
6. Ben Zobrist, TB
7. Jason Kipnis, CLE
8. Jose Altuve, HOU
9. Rickie Weeks, MIL
10. Neil Walker, PIT
11. Howard Kendrick, LAA
12. Josh Rutledge, COL
13. Danny Espinosa, WSH
14. Kelly Johnson, TB
15. Dustin Ackley, SEA
16. Daniel Murphy, NYM

Honorable mention: Dan Uggla, Chase Utley, Omar Infante, Logan Forsythe

Additional Information:

1. Cano has been the model of consistency the past four seasons posting an average stat line of 639 plate appearances, 104 R, 29 HRs, .314 AVG and 4 SBs.
2. Last season, Pedroia was hampered by multiple injuries to his right thumb, which caused him to go on the DL. Before going on the DL he hit .266/.323/.400, but after he came off the DL he hit .318/.371/.508. If he can stay healthy he should have another great year.
3. Hill maintained his 2011 second half surge with the Diamondbacks by posting a slash line of .302/.360/.522 in 2012. There appears to be no outliers in his 2012 totals to suggest a dramatic regression is coming except for his .317 BABIP, the highest it’s been since 2007. His batting average is sure to decline, but how much? When drafting Hill be prepared for a .250 batting average and be happy if he hits .285.
4. The biggest concern about Kinsler is his home-road splits. During the past three seasons he has a .300 batting average at home compared to only .227 on the road. His road woes provide less hope he can bring his average back to the .280 range he showed in 2010. There’s going to be a drop-off in his run potential with Lance Berkman replacing Josh Hamilton.
5. At the age of 31 the 20+ stolen bases and home runs are no longer there, but Phillips is a safe bet for 15/15 with solid numbers everywhere else. He’s currently being taken as the sixth second baseman (76^th overall) at Mock Draft Central, which is about the right spot for him.
6. Zobrist’s greatest value is his versatility, qualifying at shortstop, second base and outfield. Last season, not only did his stolen bases drop dramatically, but his stolen base success rate was only 61%; his days of 20 stolen bases are gone.
7. Kipnis’ fantasy value last year relied heavily on his 31 stolen bases. If he only stole 20 bases, he would have been the tenth-rated second baseman instead of the third best. Most of his fantasy value came in the first half of the season; 79% of his home runs and 65% of his stolen bases came in the first half.
8. When Altuve made his debut in 2011 pitchers took advantage of his lack of plate discipline, resulting in a 2.1% walk rate. However, in 2012 his walk rate increased to 6.3% along with his AVG, OBP and SLG. Despite his size he has the ability to barrel up baseballs and hit a lot of doubles. He’s going to lead off for the Astros again and should score 85+ runs with a .280+ batting average and 30+ stolen bases.
9. 2012 was a tale of two seasons for Weeks. During the first half he put up a slash line of .199/.314/.343. After the all-star break he returned to being Rickie Weeks, with a slash line of .261/.343/.457. His injury history (only averaging 120 games the past seven seasons) makes him high risk, but if you can get him at the right price, you could have a monster on your hands.
10. Walker enters the 2013 season at the magical age of 27, the start of his prime. Playing in PNC Park, the second worst ballpark for hitting home runs, suppresses his power potential. However, he is a great second-tier second baseman who’s extremely consistent and will bat .270 with 15 home runs, 5 stolen bases, 80 runs and RBI.
11. Similar to Walker, Kendrick’s greatest asset is his consistency, which means the 18 home runs he posted in 2011 look to be a fluke. Instead, he should be good for 10 home runs with a .285 batting average 14 stolen bases with 70 runs and RBI.
12. Rutledge leaped from Double-A to the major leagues last year, hitting .274/.306/.469 with 8 home runs and 7 SBs. There are two reasons why I like him: A) he plays in Coors, which added 20 points to his batting average. B) his swing, which is short and simple, will allow him to make consistent contact at home and on the road. He’ll provide small contributions with the power but he’ll provide a nice average with 15+ stolen bases.
13. Espinosa loves to swing the bat and has a poor approach at the plate. Therefore, it’s no surprise he strikes out a lot; last year was he had the highest strikeout percentage in his career (28.7%). He tore his left rotator cuff at the beginning of September and has decided to play with the injury instead of getting surgery. I’m staying away from him in every league because I have no idea how much the torn rotator cuff will affect his performance.
14. Johnson’s poor strike zone awareness (27.4% strikeout percentage) will be a road block to hitting .280+ again. Despite the low batting average, Johnson is perennial 15/15 candidate who looks to rebound with the Tampa Rays. Joe Maddon has said he plans on using Johnson in the outfield and infield, which will provide great positional flexibility.
15. After a promising rookie year, Ackley suffered a sophomore slump, batting .226. He has an outstanding approach, which increases his value in OBP leagues. He has the ability to drive the ball to all fields; he has doubles power rather than 20+ home run power. His ranking is based on his tool set rather than his statistical output in the majors.
16. In 2010 a MCL injury to Murphy’s right knee cost him the entire season. In 2011 a MCL injury to his left knee cut his 2011 season to a halt. In 2012 Murphy showed he was fully healthy, playing in 156 games. His greatest fantasy asset is his potential to hit for a high average (.300+). He’s ranked 16^th because it’s possible he could hit second in the Mets lineup, in front of David Wright and Ike Davis. If he hits second he could score 90+ runs.

Overall Draft Strategy

After Robbie Cano, the next six players have a wide range of outcomes that will make fantasy owners think again before using a high draft pick on them. However, despite the risk at the top of the list, the position is very deep with players who could end the year as the fifth best second baseman. My strategy heading into drafts is I want my opponents to use high picks on the Pedorias and Kinslers and I’ll wait to snag a Walker, Altuve or Kendrick.

Francona, Dunn and 0-2 Walks

Francona-The Red Sox Years, the terrific new book by Terry Francona and Dan Shaughnessy is filled with great stories and shiny anecdotal nuggets.

Tito's relationship with Dustin Pedroia was renowned for their give-and-take teasing. On page 26, after Shaughnessy addresses Francona's self-deprecating style when he talks about his own playing days, Dan points out that Francona "swung at everything, and he almost never struck out." After extolling a number of Francona's amateur achievements, Shaughnessy adds this fun quote:

There's one other stat that nobody knows about, said Dustin Pedroia (kiddingly)...."He is the only player with a minimum of 1,000 plate appearances to never work an 0-2 walk. How awesome is that? He had no fight in him. None! That's unbelievable!"

Well, of course, Pedey was right (about the absence of whiffs, not about the competitive nature of Francona). While all the data is not available, we do know that Tito had 1827 plate appearances from 1981-90. And of the 72 PA he had from 1988 on that he had an 0-2 count, after that Tito drew no walks. He struck out 14 times and picked up 14 hits.

The 2012 leader in walks, after an 0-2 count, was not surprisingly Adam Dunn.

Here are the 0-2 walk leaders

Walks after 0-2 Counts | Create infographics

Get the Francona book here