Dustin Ackley's High-Pitch Slugging

Along with Ichiro, Seattle second baseman Dustin Ackley starred in the first game that counts in 2012. Ackley ripped a fourth-inning solo homer off Brandon McCarthy and lined a go-ahead single off Andrew Carignan in the 11th as the Mariners topped the A's 3-1 at the Tokyo Dome.

That both hits from Ackley came on pitches high in the zone -- the go-ahead single was nearly at eye level -- shouldn't come as much of a surprise. Ackley performed well overall as a rookie, batting .273/.348/.417 with a 117 OPS+, but he was especially deadly against high stuff. Look at his in-play slugging percentage by pitch location in 2011:

Ackley's in-play slugging percentage by pitch location, 2011

The number two pick in the '09 drafted slugged .547 on pitches thrown up in the zone, 161 points above the MLB average last season. That high-pitch slugging placed him in the top 15 among all hitters:

Highest slugging percentage on high pitches, 2011

Batter	SLUG
Pablo Sandoval	.779
Mike Napoli	.687
Troy Tulowitzki	.675
David Ortiz	.642
Josh Willingham	.636
Dustin Pedroia	.613
Adam Jones	.592
Ben Zobrist	.587
Carlos Gonzalez	.586
Hunter Pence	.585
J. J. Hardy	.580
Ian Kinsler	.577
Adrian Beltre	.575
Carlos Beltran	.548
Dustin Ackley	.547

An Ichiro rebound is important for Seattle, but continued growth from Ackley (projected for a .261/.348/.410 line by ZiPS) and offseason pickup Jesus Montero (.257/.322/.438) will determine whether the M's finish last in runs scored in the AL for the fourth straight year in 2012. So far, so good for Ackley.

Ackley Hitting Backwards

Some hurlers pitch backwards; they throw off-speed pitches in fastball counts and vice versa.  Rookie Dustin Ackely of the Seattle Mariners hits backwards.

Most pitchers use a change up as an out pitch.  They train a batter's pattern recognition software to learn a fastball motion.  Once the hitter sees the fastball enough, the pitcher unleashes the change up.  The best throw the pitch with the same motion and arm speed, but drop the speed of the ball with their grip.  The batter swings early and misses, or hits the ball weakly.  In the majors this season, batters own a .339 weighted OBA (wOBA) on the fastball, .290 on the changeup.

So far, Ackely hits the change much better:

Dustin Ackley	AVG	OBP	SLUG	wOBA	K%	HR%
Fastball	0.277	0.358	0.349	0.323	0.189	0.000
Change Up	0.409	0.458	0.909	0.556	0.000	0.136

You can really see the reversal in the strikeout and home run numbers.  Fast pitches help batters hit home runs.  Dustin has yet to take a fast ball deep.  Change ups are supposed to fool batters into striking out, but Ackely doesn't get fooled by the pitch.

These numbers, of course, are based on small sample sizes.  If they hold up, however, it won't be good news for Dustin.  If pitchers discover they can just pump fastballs by him, they'll be happy to blow him away with heat.

Ackley Owns the Strike Zone

The Seattle Mariners rank dead last in the American League in runs scored for a third straight season, but no one can blame rookie second baseman Dustin Ackley.

The second overall pick in the 2009 MLB Draft began the year at Triple-A Tacoma, where he batted .303/.421/.487 and posted a 55-to-38 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has continued to show superb plate discipline since his big league promotion in mid-June. Ackley has a .312/.377/.565 line in 154 plate appearances, drawing 15 walks and punching out just 20 times.

The key to Ackley's early success has been his willingness to lay off pitches thrown out of the strike zone and his ability to make contact. The 23-year-old exhibits the plate approach of a wise veteran:

 Ackley's swing rate by pitch location

League average swing rate by pitch location

Ackley has chased a little over 18 percent of pitches thrown out of the zone, compared to the 28 percent league average. That's the twelfth-lowest chase rate among MLB batters with 150+ plate appearances.

And when Ackley does swing, he rarely misses:

Ackley's contact rate by pitch location League average contact rate by pitch location

The lefty has missed slightly less than 14 percent of the pitches that he has swung at, well south of the 20 percent league average.

According to Baseball-Reference, Ackley's bat has already produced 12 runs compared to that of an average hitter. The rest of Seattle's hitters have a collective -105 batting runs. Talk about a one man show.