Fister Chasing a Dream

Doug Fister of the Detroit Tigers ranks as one of the best pitchers in 2011 at getting batters to chase pitches outside the strike zone.  This should be a good thing; batters swinging at pitches out of the strike zone should result in better outcomes for the pitcher.  Take a look at the batting averages allowed by the top ten pitchers in chase percentage.

Pitcher	Team	Plate Appearances	AVG Against	Strikeout %	Chase %
Ricky Nolasco	FLA	712	0.291	0.167	0.367
Doug Fister	DET	670	0.265	0.140	0.360
Dan Haren	LAA	753	0.227	0.207	0.341
Carl Pavano	MIN	718	0.294	0.102	0.340
Cole Hamels	PHI	677	0.215	0.229	0.338
Jeff Karstens	PIT	573	0.255	0.148	0.336
Jon Niese	NYM	670	0.278	0.197	0.336
Roy Halladay	PHI	735	0.245	0.241	0.334
Justin Verlander	DET	778	0.187	0.262	0.333
Cory Luebke	SD	385	0.198	0.270	0.333

Note that the batting averages allowed correlate much better with strike out rate than with chase percentage.  Chasing pitches without inducing misses doesn't really seem to lead to better outcomes.  Balls in play tend to find holes with some regularity.

Note that Fister posted a .252 BA against with the Mariners, a good fielding team.  With the poor fielding Detroit Tigers, that's up to .369.  He doesn't miss bats, so even though he's good at getting hitters to fish outside the strike zone, those balls in play still depend on his fielders catching them.  So far, the Tigers haven't.

Who is getting Squeezed?

Time to check in on which pitchers aren't getting the close calls from umpires:

(ClStk%=called strikes/pitches taken; Data based on PitchFX strike zone.)C.J. Wilson (TEX) ranks number one in terms of the most pitches called balls in the strike zone with 124.  But this is due to volume; Wilson has thrown the second most pitches within the strike zone in the majors this season behind only Cliff Lee (PHI). 

Doug Fister (SEA) and Cliff Lee rank second and third in most missed strikes with 114 and 108 respectively.  Chad Billingsley (LAD) comes in 4th with 107 missed strikes - combine that with his overall 17th ranking in lowest called strike percentage in the zone, and he's a good candidate for the most squeezed pitcher in baseball this season.