Jeter's Line Drive Luck

David Pinto had a post up earlier regarding Jeter's new approach to hitting.  Following up on that, check out his batted ball splits from the two previous seasons.

	LD%	BABIP	GB/FB	GB-BA	LD-BABIP	FB-BABIP	FLY-DIST
Jeter 2009	20.3%	.368	2.51	.243	.817	.228	311
Jeter 2010	16.1%	.307	3.60	.242	.667	.232	303

That .667 batting average on line drives ranked in the bottom 5% in all of baseball last season. Was Jeter just unlucky with his liners? There's always the issue of subjectivity when it comes to line drives. One stat reporter may see a hit as a line drive with elevation while another might see it as simply a fly ball. So you're going to get some variation there, and as a result Jeter's LD batting average might get hurt (or even helped).

But there's also the possibility that his line drives were simply not hit as hard last season. Liners are going to drop as hits more often than any other batted ball because they have less air time than fly balls and are thus far more difficult for fielders to make a play on. If Jeter's line drives did not have as much velocity as previous seasons (perhaps with less elevation), it could definitely have played a part in lowering that average. It will be interesting to see how his new swing (with the elimination of that big leg kick) affects his batted ball types this season.

Derek Jeter 2010: Not a Year of Contact

A few weeks ago, we looked at Jeter’s 2010 and how poorly he hit against RHP. In that post, I noted how Jeter’s power zone (up and away) decreased significantly last season. Jeter tends get his extra base hits on balls up and out over the plate. In 2010, his in play SLG% on pitches to that area of the zone dropped greatly, especially against RHP.

Considering that a decrease in bat speed might be at issue, I decided to look at Jeter’s contact percentage last season to see if anything changed from previous years.
Derek Jeter Contact Rate 2010 So Jeter was swinging and missing at a lot of pitches in an area where he typically generates most of his power. The first thought that comes to mind is a drop in bat speed. I can't attest to whether or not Jeter actually lost anything on his swing in 2010, but he certainly whiffed at a greater rate on pitches up and away. Hard pitches up in the zone are usually tougher to get around on for hitters. If Jeter was experiencing a drop in bat speed, this would be an area we would notice it most, especially against righties with fastballs tailing away.

How do Jeter's contact numbers up in the zone compare to his 2009 numbers?

Derek Jeter Contact Rate 2009 (Selected Zone [518 pitches, 378 swings])

	PA	SLG	wOBA	Contact
vs. LHP	45	.907	.630	89.3%
vs. RHP	110	.642	.434	85.3%
vs. FB	101	.765	.520	86.8%

Derek Jeter Contact Rate 2010 (Selected Zone [421 pitches, 295 Swings])

	PA	SLG	wOBA	Contact
vs. LHP	60	.719	.474	83.9%
vs. RHP	78	.293	.247	79.5%
vs. FB	71	.441	.313	78.9%

Across the board, Jeter’s contact rate was down 5% in 2010. Against fastballs in his power zone, it was down nearly 8%. And against right handed fastballs in that zone, his contact rate was down more than 10% from 2009 (79.4% to 68.7%). Again, I don't know if this is due to a drop in bat speed, or if his bat speed saw any decline at all from 2009 to 2010. However, Jeter was swinging and missing at a greater rate in an area where he gets most of his big hits.

Given the drastic drop in power, Jeter’s 2010 was likely not all a result of decline due to age. He could simply have had an off year, with his problems only partly a result of age related factors. He had a terrible season against RHP which contributed greatly to his overall power outage. However, his numbers do look similar in many respects to his 2008 season numbers, with 2009 looking like the outlier.

I’m really not sure what to expect out of Jeter in 2011. He probably won’t be as bad as he was in 2010. But unless he can correct his troubles against RHP, I doubt we’ll see him approach anything close to his 2009 production.

Derek Jeter's Forgettable 2010

2010 saw a noticeable drop in Derek Jeter’s offensive production.  In 2009, Jeter hit .334/.406/.465, with 212 hits, 18 HR, 72 walks, and 90 strikeouts.  This year: .270/.340/.370, with 179 hits, 10 HR, 63 walks, and 106 strikeouts.  His wOBA dropped 67 points, from .390 to .323.  He also saw a drop in his line drive rate, 19.5% to 14.8%, accompanied by BAbip nearly 50 points below his career average.

The most obvious problem was the drop in power for Jeter this season.  His SLG% fell nearly 100 points from 2009.  Jeter does most of his damage out and over the upper half of the plate, where he can extend his bat and go the other way with the pitch.

Derek Jeter 2009 In Play SLG% VS. 2010 In Play SLG%

As you can see from the heat maps, Jeter did far less damage in his happy zone in 2010.  Also note how his power faded in the middle-in and middle-down areas of the zone as well.

Take a look at how pitchers threw to him this year as compared to last.

Derek Jeter 2009 Pitch Frequency vs. 2010 Pitch FrequencyThere’s a slight decrease in pitches thrown to Jeter in the top portion of the zone, as well as more pitches inside in 2010.  I’m not sure if this can account for some of his troubles this year, but perhaps teams were increasingly pitching Jeter inside in order to limit his “Jeterian” swing.  If he’s experiencing a decline in bat speed, this would obviously contribute to his problems in getting around on inside pitches.

It’s no secret that Jeter has a tendency to swing early in counts, especially at the first pitch.  This season was no different.  In 2009, Jeter had 87 first pitch swings in 716 PA.  In 2010, 97 first pitch swings in 739 PA.  Unfortunately, his first pitch swings in 2010 were not nearly as successful.

Derek Jeter 2009 First Pitch Swinging VS. 2010But Jeter’s biggest problem in 2010 was right handed pitchers.  In 2009, Jeter hit .311/.381/.435 against RHP, nearly identical to his career line against righties (.307/.377/ .437).  This year he hit .246/.315/.317.

Derek Jeter facing RHP 2009 VS. 2010That’s a severe dropoff, to say the least.  As the Yankees look to resign Jeter this offseason, I doubt this one down year will affect negotiations much.  However, while it is reasonable to expect a bounce back year from Jeter in 2011, 2010 is probably a sign of what is waiting towards the end of his next contract.