The Red Sox Regression

Take a look at the AL East standings on April 19 and the Red Sox results since.

On April 19:

April 19 - May 15, 2013:

Nobody could have expected the Sox to have maintained their torrid start, so a regression was expected and occurred.

Let's examine some reasons for the Sox return to Earth 

• The Red Sox team ERA through April 19 was 2.69; since, 4.82.
• Starters ERA through April 19 was 2.23; since, 4.67.
• Relievers ERA through April 19 was 3.43; since, 5.16. 

Take a look at some individual differences

The Sox are heavily reliant upon their top three starters in their rotation and they have regressed:

• Up to April 19, Clay Buchholz had a 0.41 ERA, after, a still very good, 2.45 
• Up to April 19, Jon Lester had a 1.73 ERA, after a fair, 3.71 
• Up to April 19, Ryan Dempster had a 2.65 ERA, after, a very shaky, 4.35

The Bullpen

Their bullpen has been hit with a season-ending injury to Joel Hanrahan and a DL-inducing injury to Andrew Bailey.

However:

• Up to April 19, Junichi Tazawa had a 1.12 ERA, after, a not very good, 5.40 
• Up to April 19, Koji Uehara had a 0.00 ERA, after, a not very good, 4.50

Let's move to the offense, which has improved

• Up to April 19, the team was hitting .257, with an OBP of .333, and slugging .411. 
• Since April 19, the team is hitting .270, with an OBP of .345, and slugging .459.

The individual batting averages have been a mixed bag before and after April 19

• The always hard playing Dustin Pedroia was hitting .310 up to April 19 and .355 since then. 
• Jarrod Saltalamacchia has also improved hitting .231 up to April 19 and .286 since then. 
• Stephen Drew has found his stroke jumping from .087 to .278. 
• Daniel Nava has fallen going from .333 up to April 19 and .265 since then. 
• Similarly, Shane Victorino has gone from .322 up to April 19 and .269 since then. 
• Mike Napoli has remained consistent .262/.261. 
• However, Will Middlebrooks, Jonny Gomes and David Ross still are not hitting well.

So, where's the rub?

• Up to April 19, the team was hitting .305 with runners in scoring position.
• Since April 19, the team is hitting .255 w/RISP.

• With runners in scoring position both Dustin Pedroia and Daniel Nava have been consistently good with numbers over .300 before and after April 19. 
•  Since April 19, Stephen Drew has gone from .000 to .368 w/RISP and Jonny Gomes has gone from .000 to .286. 
•  But it has hurt that the red-hot Mike Napoli has dropped from .333 to .258 since April 19. 
• Jacoby Ellsbury has gone from .400 to .118 since April 19. 
• And Saltalamacchia and Middlebrooks have both been ineffective all season long with runners in scoring position.

Perhaps you are wondering why I chose April 19th as my cutoff date

You see, on April 20 David Ortiz made his season's debut.

And while you certainly can't complain about Big Papi's .329 average with five homers and 20 RBI or his .321 average w/RISP, you do have to wonder if the team let down after his return or it was simply an expected regression to the mean.

We'll learn a ot more about this team over the next 25 games.

Halladay says he is healthy after rough outing and more

"Roy Halladay insisted Tuesday that he is fine.

But is he really?

He struggled terribly in 2 2/3 innings at Bright House Field against a lineup featuring mostly Detroit Tigers reserves. He allowed six hits, seven runs, four walks, one wild pitch, two home runs and one hit batsman. He lacked tempo and command throughout the start. He also lacked velocity. One scout said his fastball hit just 86-88 mph on the radar gun. Other reports had gun readings clocking his fastball a mile or two less than that.

Halladay's velocity has dropped since his first two Grapefruit League starts, when he sat in the 89-91 mph range. It dropped into the 86-88 mph range in his third start before sitting in about the same area Tuesday.

Halladay appears to be going in the wrong direction with Opening Day just 20 days away.

"The good part is, there's no soreness," Halladay said. "Nothing hurts."

He blamed his troubling performance on lethargy. He said a completely revamped, more intense workout program, plus throwing two bullpen sessions in between starts, contributed to his lackluster performance.

"I think I've always been a lot harder on myself than any of you guys have ever been. I can promise you that," he said. "You also are aware of what's going on, and it's hard to explain sometimes how you're feeling, what you're working on, what you're going through, what you're trying to do. When you know in your head what's going on, it's a lot different."

Source: MLB.com

Lawrie expects to be ready for season opener

"Brett Lawrie insists there’s no reason to worry.

Blue Jays fans, of course, will worry anyway.

The injured third baseman returned to the Jays spring training complex on Tuesday morning to see team doctors and training staff after participating in a non-active role with Team Canada at the World Baseball Classic until the Canadians were eliminated Sunday night."

Source: Thestar.com

Samardzija turns corner as opening day approaches

"Three weeks before he takes the mound on Opening Day in Pittsburgh, Jeff Samardzija moved closer to being ready for the Cubs' first game that counts.

While Samardzija's line -- 4 2/3 innings, 4 earned runs, 4 hits, 2 walks and 2 home runs allowed -- wasn't what he'll look for in 21 days, he was nevertheless encouraged by how he felt after ramping up the intensity for the first time this spring.

"I really thought today was a big turn for me, just how I felt, my pitch execution -- if I missed, I didn't miss by much," Samardzija said. "The adjustments I need to make are pretty simple, I feel like."

Source: CSNchicago.com

Patient appraoch with Ortiz is the right move

"I don't think it requires high levels of cynicism in the bloodstream to have heard the Red Sox' recent explanation for sore-heeled David Ortiz's scheduled five-to-seven-day hiatus and immediately mutter: ''Right. More like five to seven weeks."

I suppose any time the Red Sox' medical team concludes a diagnosis without alienating a player is a victory nowadays. But let's just say Monday's acknowledgement that Ortiz, who was limited to just 90 games last season after suffering a slight tear in his right Achilles' tendon, will probably begin the season on the disabled list hardly comes as a surprise."

Source: Boston.com

Jeter to play shortstop Wednesday

"Derek Jeter says he will play at shortstop Wednesday night against the Philadelphia Phillies.

It's the first time in the field for Jeter since ankle surgery last fall. Jeter says Tuesday after working out in Tampa that he'll "be out there" against the Phillies after two games as the designated hitter.

The game Wednesday also marks the spring training debut for Yankees pitcher Andy Pettitte.

Jeter went 0 for 2 Monday in his second game at DH since breaking his left ankle in October. He had a single in two at-bats Saturday."

Source: NYPost.com

Joe Nathan still building arm strength

"Texas Rangers closer Joe Nathan gave up back-to-back triples Monday, but the bigger development was the progress of his slider. After the two triples, which accounted for San Francisco’s second run in a 2-1 victory, he found the Giants committing to and chasing his slider. That led to three consecutive strikeouts.

Nathan said his arm strength is still lacking, but that it has come later during spring training in recent years. He compiled a 10.29 ERA in seven spring games last year and a 9.72 in 2011, his first year back from Tommy John surgery."

Source: Dallasnews.com

Nick Markakis out roughly two weeks

"The cause of Nick Markakis’ neck soreness is more severe than originally thought, but the Orioles hope that some rest will allow the team’s starting right fielder to return to spring training games in the next week or two.

A MRI on Monday revealed a small disk herniation — or slight tear — in the C4-C5 section (neck area) of Markakis’ spine, manager Buck Showalter said."

Source: Baltimoresun.com

Zack Greinke to get elbow examination and more top stories

"The Dodgers sent pitcher Zack Greinke to Los Angeles on Monday for an examination of his right elbow.

Greinke complained of irritation in the elbow while throwing on Sunday. The Dodgers sent him to Dr. Neal El Attrache for what the team called a "precautionary exam" ordered out of an "abundance of caution."

The Dodgers signed Greinke for $147 million last winter, making him the highest-paid right-handed pitcher in major-league history. He has no previous history of elbow trouble."

Source: LAtimes.com

David Ortiz likely to start season on DL

"David Ortiz said today that he wasn't surprised to learn that there was inflammation in his heels, particularly the left, given how he has felt in recent weeks.

The Red Sox slugger has been shut down for at least a week and is now likely to start the season on the disabled list. He has yet to play in a spring training game.

"I knew there was something that was not normal," Ortiz said today. "I was getting pain four or five hours after I was finished with my workout. I knew something wasn't right."

Ortiz said he spoke to the team's medical staff about his concerns and they agreed that an MRI should be taken. That happened on Saturday."

Source: Boston.com

Yankees will rely on Sabathia for 2013 success

"Sabathia took the Steinbrenner Field main mound for what was truly the main event in the Yankees’ world yesterday.

The game was simulated, but not the importance.

Sabathia is probably the most indispensable Yankee — more than ever now because this team is going to rely on pitching in a greater fashion than perhaps any of its last 20 predecessors.

In the recent past, the Yankees could count on their offense to do a fair amount of bludgeoning, especially at home, to inflate their win-loss record. But that strategy is gone for at least April while Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira convalesce, and perhaps all season due to the irreversible impact of injuries and offseason defections."

Source: NYPost.com

Gio Gonzalez to get start for team USA

"Gio Gonzalez munched on chicken wings and shrimp scampi at a sports bar in his hometown as he watched Team USA rally to stay alive in the World Baseball Classic.

The next game he'll take in from the mound. The Washington Nationals' left-hander will start for the United States in its opener of round two Tuesday night against Puerto Rico.

The U.S. team rallied with seven runs in the last two innings Sunday to advance by beating Canada 9-4 in Phoenix.

Gonzalez wasn't with the team in Arizona. He left the Nationals' camp in central Florida before the U.S. game Sunday to make the three-hour drive south.

"I was so confident they were going to win," he said. "I was ready to go."

Gonzalez grew up in Hialeah, a short drive from Marlins Park, the site of the second round."

Source: ESPN.com

Yankees targeting veteran Derek Lee

"No name is off limits as Brian Cashman casts his wide net for potential lineup help. The Yankees' general manager confirmed on Monday that he has reached out to veterans Derrek Lee and Scott Rolen to gauge their interest on playing this season.

Saying that the calls show how "creative we would like to be" in filling the vacancy created by Mark Teixeira's injury, Cashman added that he would also love to fit Chipper Jones for pinstripes, calling the retired Braves icon's demeanor and skill set a "Yankee-type" match.

"Don't you think Chipper would be a perfect fit? Larry?" Cashman said. "I'd take Larry in a heartbeat. I think everybody would. I already know the answer, but I might as well throw it out there anyway."

Source: MLB.com

Rays owner "We can afford David Price"

"It is widely believed that pitcher David Price is about to embark on his final season with the Rays, that the 2012 American League Cy Young Award winner is about to price himself out of the market for the low-revenue club, just as Carl Crawford did after 2010 and B.J. Upton and James Shields did after last season.

Rays principal owner Stuart Sternberg said Sunday that among the members of the team’s front office, that conclusion has not been reached and it is possible for the Rays to keep Price beyond this season.

“Oh yeah, sure,” Sternberg said. “Absolutely.”

But at what cost?

Sternberg acknowledged future payrolls will be hamstrung by the six-year, $100 million extension the team gave in November to third baseman Evan Longoria."

Source: Tampatribune.com

Romero gets grip on struggles

"Ricky Romero can laugh about it now, hisdisastrous 2012, as if it were a time in his life he barely recognizes.

He can handle the good-natured ribbing of new teammate Mark Buehrle, who asked Romero during their first bullpen session if he had walked anybody yet.

Time and off-season surgery have healed the wounds of last season and Romero says he’s looking forward to a brighter 2013."

Source: Thestar.com

Brett Anderson should be ready to start opener

"A's left-hander Brett Anderson said he was feeling a bit stiff Monday, less than 24 hours after he exited a Cactus League game against the Arizona Diamondbacks game after eight pitches following a collision with a baserunner.

Anderson, who has been tabbed as the opening day starter for the A's on April 1 against Seattle, hopes to throw his regular bullpen session on Tuesday and make his next Cactus League start later in the week.

The injury-prone Anderson suffered a strain in his right (non-throwing) shoulder when he tried to cover third base on an error and collided awkwardly with Diamondbacks baserunner Adam Eaton."

Source: Insidebayarea.com