Ubaldo Jimenez on the Market?

It's July, and you know what that means: trade rumors aplenty. The juiciest one yet came from Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi, who report that the Cincinnati Reds are interested in Colorado Rockies ace Ubaldo Jimenez.

Loaded as the Reds' farm system is with major league-ready talent, any deal involving Jimenez is a long shot. Colorado won't part easily with the 27-year-old right-hander, who ranks tenth among starters in Wins Above Replacement since the beginning of the 2009 season. He is signed to a contract that pays him just a fraction of what he would command on the free agent market: Jimenez will pull in $2.8 million this season, $4.2 million in 2012 and he has club options for $5.75 million in 2013 and $8 million in 2014, though he can void that '14 option if he's traded.

But, while Jimenez would no doubt bring back upper-echelon prospects, his performance in 2011 hasn't been on par with his pitching in 2009 and 2010. Perhaps that makes the Rockies more inclined listen to offers. Look at Ubaldo's Fielding-Independent ERA (FIP) over the past three seasons, compared to the league average:

Jimenez's 2011 FIP looks just slightly worse than his work in 2009 and 2010, right? But we have to consider that run-scoring has been down across the game over the past few years.  Take a look at the league average FIP -- it has fallen sharply in each of the past two seasons. That means that Jimenez's pitching, relative to his peers, hasn't been as good this year. His FIP was 27 percent and 28 percent better than average in 2009 and 2010, respectively, but his 2011 FIP is 16 percent above average. Still very good, but not the sort of mark that puts a guy in Cy Young contention.

Why hasn't Jimenez been as sharp this season? His fastball and slider appear to be the culprits. Here's how those two pitches have fared this year, compared to 2009 and 2010:

Both the fastball and slider are getting hit harder this year, especially the slider. And both pitches are garnering fewer misses and ground balls. Velocity could be a major factor: Jimenez's fastball, which averaged 96 MPH from 2009-2010, is down to 94 MPH in 2011. His slider averaged a little over 86 MPH in '09 and '10 but is at 83-84 MPH this season.

Jimenez hasn't thrown his fastball in on the hands of hitters near as much:

 Frequency of Jimenez's fastball location, 2009-2010

Frequency of Jimenez's fastball location, 2011

Thirty-seven percent of his heaters were thrown inside in 2009 and 2010, but that's down to 26 percent this year. Jimenez's ground ball rate with the fastball is typically highest on inside pitches. So that, along with the decrease in velocity, could explain the lower grounder rate.

With the slider, he's going down and away to right-handed batters less often:

Frequency of Jimenez's slider location, 2009-2010

Frequency of Jimenez's slider location, 2011

And when he has located the ball down and away, hitters have smoked it:

Jimenez's in-play slugging percentage with his slider, 2009-2010

Jimenez's in-play slugging percentage with his slider, 2011Jimenez still ranks on the short list of the game's best arms, he makes peanuts compared to what a free agent acquisition of his caliber would earn, and he has pitched better of late. Those factors make it likely that he'll continue to wear black and purple for years to come. But it's not totally out of the realm of possibility that the Rockies look at Jimenez's decreased velocity and performance and decide to sell, raiding another team's farm system in the process.                           

D-Train Returns to Majors

At the All-Star break, the Cincinnati Reds have a record of 45-47 and look up at the Pirates, Brewers and the Cardinals in the National League Central standings. The defending division champs sit in fourth place due mostly to a disappointing starting rotation. Cincy's rotation was supposed to be a source of strength, boasting  great depth if not ace-caliber talent. Instead, injuries and uncerachievement leave Reds starters with the second-worst fielding-independent ERA in the major leagues.

Showing just how thin the club's staff has been stretched, the Reds turned to Dontrelle Willis on Sunday to start in place of Edinson Volquez, who was optioned to Triple-A to rectify his control issues. Willis, the 2003 NL Rookie of the Year who averaged better than three Wins Above Replacement with the Marlins in his early-to-mid-twenties, has since contracted a serious case of Steve Blass Disease.

The left-hander scarcely pitched at all upon being traded to the Tigers along with Miguel Cabrera, missing time in 2008 with knee and forearm injuries and then seeking treatment for anxiety disorder in 2009. Last year, he was acquired by the Diamondbacks for a song during the summer and was released a month later, latching on with the Giants to finish the season. His strikeout-to-walk ratio in the majors from '08 to '10 was 82-to-119 in 123.1 innings pitched.

Prior to his call-up, the now-29-year-old D-Train showed some signs of getting back on track. He posted a 67-to-20 K/BB ratio at Triple-A Louisville, with a 3.12 fielding-independent ERA and a ground ball rate above 50 percent in 75.1 innings. Making his first MLB start in over a year on Sunday against the Brewers, Willis allowed two runs in six innings pitched, surrendering six hits while walking and whiffing four hitters each.

Here's a look at his pitch break and velocity from Sunday:

Willis relied on a fastball/slider mix, with a few changeups and seemingly a cutter thrown in as well. His fastball sat at 89 and topped out at 92, his slider averaged around 81 and his cutter came in a few ticks higher than the breaking ball. The changeup averaged 84 MPH.

He got ahead of hitters at a surprising clip, getting a first pitch strike to 19 of the 26 batters that he faced while throwing almost exclusively fastballs in those situtations. So, why did he still issue four walks? Willis got strikes with his fastball about 64 percent of the time and his cutter 66 percent, locating those pitches within the zone often:

 Pitch frequency of Willis' fastball and cutterBut Willis tried to use his slider and changeup as chase pitches, with little success. Batters went after just two of Willis' 15 out-of-zone sliders, and none of his three changeups that were off the plate.

 Pitch frequency of Willis' slider and changeup

The D-Train's first start with the Reds was a mixed bag. He threw his fastball and what looked like a cutter for strikes while recording 10 ground ball outs, but his slider was sloppy and hitters accordingly laid off the pitch. It's hard to envision long-term success for Willis, but the fact that he's even on a major league mound constitutes major progress at this point.

Johnny Cueto's Unusual Changeup

Johnny Cueto of the Cincinnati Reds throws a very unusual change up.  The uniqueness of the pitch stems from the spin he imparts to the ball.  The following graph shows the relationship between the spin on his fastball and the spin on his change:

Johnny Cueto, spin by velocity, fastball and change up, 2011.Notice that there is much overlap between the fastball and the change.  That's good, as a pitcher want his change to look as much like his fastball as possible.  What's different is that Cueto's change breaks farther away from his pitching hand than his fastball, in this case, away from a right-handed batter.  If you look at most pitchers, the change up is identifiable by the speed and the bigger break toward the pitcher's throwing hand.

The type of movement seen in this change up suggests a slider, but Johnny throws a very good one of those:

Johnny Cueto, spin by velocity, slider and change up, 2011.The slider exhibits the spin that moves it away from Cueto's throwing arm.  There still is some overlap with the change up, however.

Cueto throws his change the least, and it is also his least productive pitch.  He records weighted On Base Averages (wOBA) of .167 on his slider, .275 on his fastball and .291 on his change.  Those are all very good, but it's clear he gets much better results on his slider, which is why he throws it 2.5 times more than his change.

Given the spin of the pitch and batters ability to hit it, I wonder if his change ups are really poorly thrown sliders.  A slider that didn't move much would explain why batters get more offense out of the pitch.