Brett Jackson: Whiff Machine

Gloves are optional when Cubs outfielder Brett Jackson steps to the plate. Jackson has been a Three True Outcomes hero since getting called up in early August, walking, homering or whiffing in 61% of his plate appearances. That's more than double the big league average (30.3%).

So far, Jackson has rapped enough extra-base hits and drawn enough walks to be an asset for the run-starved North Siders (a 114 OPS+ in 92 plate appearances). But the last part of that Three True Outcomes equation -- Ks -- could quash his success in the long run. Jackson has struck out in 40.2% of his plate appearances so far. Brett Hayes and Brooks Conrad are the only hitters who have punched out more often while getting at least as many PAs as Jackson.

The farther away the pitch, the less often Jackson connects. Here's his contact rate by pitch location, compared to the league average for left-handed hitters:

Jackson's contact rate by pitch location

 

Average contact rate by pitch location for left-handed hitters

Jackson has a 20% miss rate on inside pitches, which is actually below the 22.6% average for lefty hitters. But he's swinging and missing twice as often as the average lefty batter on middle-of-the plate pitches (38.5%, 18.9% average) and comes close to doubling the average miss rate on outside pitches (40.2%,  22.6% average).

Strikeouts hardly condemn a player to the prospect graveyard if he can take and rake, but Jackson's contact woes are so amplified that he simply can't keep his head above water in the majors without monster secondary skills. Jackson's whiff rate at the Triple-A level (32.6% over the past two seasons) makes Pedro Alvarez (25.8% K rate at Triple-A) look like Ichiro (the good version) by comparison. And while Jackson has some power, no one's projecting the 30-plus bombs that Pedro is on pace to hit this season. Short of turning into Adam Dunn with wheels, Jackson has to connect more often to succeed.

Rizzo Connecting in Chicago

Despite punishing Pacific Coast League pitching, Anthony Rizzo's first foray in the majors with the Padres last season could be summed up as one giant whiff. Rizzo's mighty -- and mighty long -- swing produced a .141/.281/.242 line in 153 plate appearances. His 30.1% strikeout rate was one of the 15 highest marks in the majors among hitters with at least 150 plate appearances. Once San Diego picked up Yonder Alonso as part of the Mat Latos deal with the Reds, they decided they'd rather have Andrew Cashner's dominant-yet-brittle arm than Rizzo's pull power (hardly a great fit at Petco Park) and contact woes.

Called back up to the big leagues in late June, Rizzo has rewarded former Red Sox and current Cubs execs Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod, who originally drafted him in the 6th round of the 2007 draft and included him in the December 2010 Adrian Gonzalez trade. Rizzo is batting .294/.335/.471 in 200 PA, and he has chopped his K rate all the way down to 14%.

Check out Rizzo's contact rate by pitch location with the Padres in 2011 and with the Cubs in 2012. He has made marked progress in connecting in every region of the zone, save for low-and-inside:

Rizzo in 2011

Rizzo in 2012

The biggest difference is on pitches thrown in the upper third of the zone. Rizzo missed 48.8% of high pitches that he swung at last season, blowing away (in a bad way) the 19% MLB average. This year, Rizzo has whiffed just 11.9% on high pitches. That contact has been hard, too. Rizzo batted and slugged .053 on high pitches last season (.405 MLB average for slugging on high pitches). This year, he's slugging .500 against high stuff.

Changes in strikeout rate become significant pretty quickly. And, as Fangraphs' Eno Sarris noted earlier this summer, Rizzo's hands look less fidgety and his swing path appears cleaner in 2012. With Wrigley Field playing much friendlier for lefty pull hitters (96 Park Factor, per StatCorner) than Petco (66 Park Factor) and Rizzo drastically cutting the Ks, it looks like Epstein, Hoyer and McLeod will get to enjoy the fruits of their Sox scouting labor after all.

Cubs Commit to Starlin Castro

The Chicago Cubs are reportedly on the verge of signing Starlin Castro to a seven-year, $60 million contract extension that includes an option for the 2020 season that could push the total value of the pact to $76 million.

Still just 22 years old, Castro has drawn the ire of manager Dale Sveum for occasionally spacing out on the field. Others wonder whether he can stick at shortstop long term, though he has seemingly made some progress using his strong-but-errant arm). But despite those concerns, Castro's performance at such a young age stands out. Among shortstops getting at least 1,500 plate appearances from age 20-22, Castro's 104 OPS+ bests the likes of Alan Trammell (97), Robin Yount (92) and Edgar Renteria (84). In fact, the only shortstops meeting those criteria who fared better are all-time greats Rogers Hornsby (153; he shifted to 2B), Alex Rodriguez (139), and Arky Vaughan (137).

Just what type of hitter Castro will become in his prime years remains an open question. There are two competing trends manifesting at the plate for the Cubs shortstop -- one pushing him toward potential stardom, the other constraining his progress. Castro is gradually tapping into his power potential, putting more pitches in the air and hitting to the pull side more often. But he's also giving away some ABs with a Soriano-sized strike zone.

Castro didn't show much pop as a 20-year-old rookie back in 2010, hitting three home runs and posting a .108 Isolated Power (ISO) in 506 plate appearances. He didn't really hit many pitches skyward, as you can see by comparing his fly ball rate by pitch location to the league average: 

League Avg. Fly Ball Rate by Pitch Location

Castro's Fly Ball Rate, 2010

Castro hit a fly ball a little less than 27% of the time he put a pitch in play, well under the 36-37% MLB average. He began to trade some grounders for fly balls in 2011, raising his fly ball rate to 31%. Castro's homer total climbed to ten, and his ISO increased to .125 in 715 PA:

Castro's Fly Ball Rate, 2011

This year, Castro's fly ball rate sits at 34%. He has gone deep 12 times already in 508 PA, and his .148 ISO ranks seventh among qualified shortstops. Castro's lofting most anything thrown upstairs:

Castro's Fly Ball Rate, 2012

He's also pulling the ball a little more, with his percentage of pitches put in play to left field rising from 41.1% in 2010 to 43.3% this season. But while the 6-foot, 190 pounder is hitting more forcefully, he's also turning into a hacker.

Castro was a little more jumpy than most hitters in both 2010 and 2011, chasing about 32% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (28% MLB average). Comparing his swing rate by pitch location to the league average, he lunged at a bunch of low pitches as a rookie (contributing to that low fly ball rate) and swung at lots of inside pitches in 2011:

League Avg. Swing Rate by Pitch Location

Castro's Swing Rate, 2010

Castro's Swing Rate, 2011

In his third MLB season, Castro has taken that tendency to swing on inside stuff to the extreme:

Castro's Swing Rate, 2012

Going after so many inside offerings, Castro's overall chase rate has spiked to slightly over 37%. That's eighth-highest among qualified hitters, topping teammate and noted hacker Alfonso Soriano. And, as we noted last week, many of Castro's chases are on truly awful pitches.

As one might expect from a player thrust into the majors at 20 with scarce experience in the upper levels of the minors, Starlin Castro remains raw. But for all the consternation, Castro has managed to perform at an above-average level -- a level some future multi-time All-Stars and Hall of Famers didn't reach -- at an age when most players are sharpening their skills in high Class-A ball. He's exciting. He's exasperating. And his development may be the biggest factor in how quickly the Cubs climb from the depths of the NL Central standings.