CC Sabathia's Diminishing Fastball 2008-2013

CC Sabathia is a work horse who is at his strongest and his best in the final months of the season.

Sabathia month by month career numbers

I	Split	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP
	April/March	24	16	.600	4.05	61	61	3	0	387.0	369	188	174	34	135	320	1.302
	May	37	22	.627	3.47	75	75	6	3	505.2	490	210	195	55	135	386	1.236
	June	34	13	.723	3.55	64	64	4	2	420.2	377	186	166	25	119	360	1.179
	July	26	25	.510	4.00	63	63	8	3	411.1	405	208	183	38	149	367	1.347
	August	44	13	.772	3.25	68	68	8	3	476.1	444	183	172	51	117	452	1.178
	Sept/Oct	31	17	.646	2.86	64	64	6	1	443.1	362	156	141	35	130	400	1.110

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 6/2/2013.

After he defeated the Red Sox, this past Friday night, Joe Girardi made the statement that CC is right where he should be for this time of the year and talked about how Sabathia was hitting speeds that he had not reached earlier in the season.

The manager was right in terms of speed, but the significant dropoff should not be minimized.

Let's take a look at Sabathia's fastball over the years

Start of the season to May 31

• 2008: 1241 total pitches thrown, 735 fastballs 59.2%, avg vel: 93.1 max vel: 96.9, 336 swings - 44 misses, BBA - .340 (!), seven homers, 88-92 mph: 155 fastballs, 93 mph+: 552
• 2009: 1207 total pitches thrown, 683 fastballs 56.6%, avg vel: 93.9 max vel: 97.3, 319 swings - 37 misses, BBA - .255, two homers, 88-92 mph: 90 fastballs, 93 mph+: 593
• 2010: 1084 total pitches thrown, 508 fastballs 46.9%, avg vel: 93.1 max vel: 98.3, 193 swings - 26 misses, BBA - .260, two homers, 88-92 mph: 157 fastballs, 93 mph+: 351
• 2011: 1317 total pitches thrown, 507 fastballs 38.7%, avg vel: 93.0 max vel: 96.1, 225 swings - 30 misses, BBA - .225, three homers, 88-92 mph: 150 fastballs, 93 mph+: 357
• 2012: 1103 total pitches thrown, 435 fastballs 39.4%, avg vel: 92.3 max vel: 95.5, 204 swings - 20 misses, BBA - .230, two homers, 88-92 mph: 243 fastballs 39.4%, 93 mph+: 191
• 2013: 1242 total pitches thrown, 521 fastballs 41.9%, avg vel: 90.3 max vel: 93.6, 232 swings - 32 misses, BBA - .292, six homers, 88-92 mph: 506 fastballs 41.9%, 93 mph+: 15 (12 in his start against Boston on 5/31, two in his start against Tampa Bay on 5/26, and one in his start on 4/27 against Toronto)

Numbers to note 

• In 2008, Sabathia's fastball as being hit successfully, but batters only hit .089 against his cutter. In April that year he was 1-4 with a 7.88 ERA. He finished the season 17-10, going 11-2 for Milwaukee after being acquired from Cleveland on July 7.
• In 2008, he had 552 pitches of 93+ mph in April and May.
• 2009 was the last season that Sabathia was a fastball pitcher the majority of the time. While CC throws the fastball more than any other pitcher, it is now around 40% mark most starts of seasons.
• 2009 was the peak of his throwing fastballs 93+ mph.
• The drop in 93+ fastballs was precipitous starting in 2012. 

What a difference five years make

Look at the top line to see Sabathia's pitches

2008

2013

As the weather heats up, it will be interesting to see if CC does as well.

However if he doesn't, it will get very ugly very quickly in the Bronx,

CC Sabathia's Miserable Opening Days

Things are simply getting worse for Yankee Opening Days for CC Sabathia. Since he's joined the team, he's 0-2 with three no decisions and he has yet to pitch well in an opener.

What should be of greater concern for New York is his decreasing velocity and the declining number of pitches over 90 mph.

Take a look...

2013 (L)(L, 2-8)

It was an ugly Opening Day for CC Sabathia and the Yankees as the Red Sox sent New York fans home early en route to an 8-2 victory.

Sabathia did not impress on this Opening Day against Boston lasting five innings and allowing four runs on eight hits, walking four and whiffing five. He did not allow a home run. He tossed 102 pitches at the average speed of 84.3, topping out at 91.7, with 29 pitches exceeding 90 mph. Batters swung and missed on 14 pitches.

2012 (ND) (L, 6-7)

Sabathia did not impress on this Opening Day against Tampa Bay lasting six innings and allowing five runs on eight hits, walking three and whiffing seven. He allowed two home runs. He tossed 104 pitches at the average speed of 87.4, topping out at 94.5, with 54 pitches exceeding 90 mph. Batters swung and missed on 16 pitches.

2011 (ND) (W, 6-3)

Sabathia pitched a near-minimum necessary for a Quality Start on this Opening Day against Detroit lasting six innings and allowing three runs (two earned) on six hits, walking two and whiffing seven. He allowed no home runs. He tossed 106 pitches at the average speed of 88.6, topping out at 94.7, with 68 pitches exceeding 90 mph. Batters swung and missed on 14 pitches.

2010 (ND) (L, 7-9)

Sabathia did not impress on this Opening Day against Boston lasting 5.1 innings and allowing five runs on six hits, walking two and whiffing four. He allowed no home runs. He tossed 104 pitches at the average speed of 88.7, topping out at 94.9, with 47 pitches exceeding 90 mph. Batters swung and missed on 7 pitches.

2009 (L) (L, 5-10)

Sabathia did not impress on this Opening Day against Baltimore lasting 4.1 innings and allowing six runs on eight hits, walking five and whiffing none. He allowed no home runs. He tossed 96 pitches at the average speed of 88.4, topping out at 95.4, with 54 pitches exceeding 90 mph. Batters swung and missed on 6 pitches.

In closing...

The Yanks better hope that Opening Day for CC was just another in his list of poor first starts because if this was any indication of how he has recovered from his offseason elbow surgery, the Yankee problems are much worse than anticipated.

The Fantasy Baseball Diary: Roy Halladay

Last year Roy Halladay had a down year compared to his standards. However, could you pick out 2012 in a lineup without the typical surface stats such as wins and losses?

Each row represents one year of performance between 2009-2012. 

If you guessed B, you’re correct.

For your reference A is 2011, C is 2009 and D is 2010.

I was surprised to see there wasn’t a big difference between last year and his three previous years. However, upon closer inspection there were concerning trends about 2012 when compared to average of the three years prior: the strikeout rate (K/9) decreased 6%, walk rate (BB/9) increased 66%, home run rate (HR/9) increased 49% and the velocity has decreased year-over-year from 93.74 mph in 2009 to 91.15 in 2012.After a subpar season, Halladay is looking to bounce back in 2013.

The biggest difference about 2012 was he generated more fly balls and less ground balls, which could be the reason for the increased number of home runs allowed.

Do more fly balls equate to more runs?

If we all can take out our sabermetric textbooks we’ll see ground balls are a pitcher's best friend. Ground balls create 0.05 runs per out, fly balls create 0.13 runs per out and line drives create 1.26 runs per out. Therefore, by increasing his fly ball rate, he increased his run expectancy.

Can Halladay generate more ground balls?

The decrease in ground balls coincides with the decreased effectiveness of the cutter, the pitch he throws 40% of the time:

It’s easy to point out the decline of velocity as the reason for the cutter becoming more hittable, but check out the location of the cutter in 2012 compared to the three years prior. Do you notice any differences?

Compare the differences in pitch location of Halladay's cutter:

The cutter was thrown more frequently up, in the middle of zone. Combine that with a decrease in velocity, it’s no surprise opposing hitters feasted on the cutter.

Will Halladay bounce back?

Prior to last year, Halladay was seen as the best pitcher in baseball because of his superior command, the ability to mix his pitches and to change speeds. Overall, the 2012 season was a mixture of bad luck, injuries and drop in ability, which created a perfect storm of mediocrity. The days of Halladay providing the value of a fantasy ace are no longer in play, but if he can locate his cutter he can still be a great pitcher.

Currently he’s going as the 20^th (80^th overall) pitcher overall at Mock Draft Central, right behind C.C. Sabathia and just ahead of Yovani Gallardo. That’s too early in the draft because there’s no upside with that pick.

For the pick to be valuable Halladay would have to hit Bill James’ projections:

There are still too many question marks to take him 20^th, but if he slips beyond the 27^th pitcher (C.J. Wilson), he’ll be a tremendous value.