Bill Chuck's Nine to Know: August

August was pretty ugly for Melky Cabrera, Bartolo Colon, and Red Sox Nation but overall it was a pretty cool month considering how hot it was.

Here are nine questions that demand your attention.

1. Will the Orioles be demanding that today be declared August 32?
2. Was August an indicator for the Pirates?
3. Have the 2013 turn-arounds for Kansas City and San Diego already begun?
4. I know Yovani Gallardo was 5-0 with a 2.02 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in August, but wouldn't you agree that Felix Hernandez, with a 4-0 record and a 1.08 ERA and a 0.58 WHIP was the pitcher of the month? In 41.2 innings, he allowed 19 hits and just five earned runs; the Red Sox allowed 19 hits and 20 runs in eight innings to the A's last night.
5. What does Derek Jeter have in common with catchers Kelly Shoppach, Brayan Pena, and Jose Molina? Jeter had 43 hits in August, the same number of hits that each of the catchers have had this entire season.
6. Is Terry Francona headed for the Indians dugout as their next manager?
7. The Rays pitchers allowed 2.46 runs per game in August, how can they not be the most feared team if they make the postseason?
8. How thrilled is Atlanta's Brian McCann to turn the page to September? His .181 average was good compared to his zero homers and two RBI in 72 AB.
9. July 23 was the last day the Tgers were in first place by themselves in the AL Central, when are we going to start raving about the work about Kenny Williams and Robin Ventura this season?

AL August

Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB	RS	RA
TEX	19	10	.655	--	168	128
BAL	18	9	.667	--	118	106
OAK	18	10	.643	0.5	146	102
TBR	17	11	.607	1.5	121	69
KCR	17	11	.607	1.5	115	105
DET	16	11	.593	2.0	133	108
CHW	16	12	.571	2.5	128	118
SEA	15	12	.556	3.0	95	106
NYY	15	13	.536	3.5	133	119
LAA	13	15	.464	5.5	156	172
MIN	9	19	.321	9.5	117	138
TOR	9	19	.321	9.5	89	132
BOS	9	20	.310	10.0	139	172
CLE	5	24	.172	14.0	96	179

  NL August

Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB	RS	RA
WSN	19	10	.655	--	137	98
SDP	18	10	.643	0.5	119	109
CIN	19	11	.633	0.5	142	122
SFG	18	11	.621	1.0	157	126
PHI	17	12	.586	2.0	112	108
MIL	16	12	.571	2.5	148	122
COL	16	13	.552	3.0	142	143
STL	16	13	.552	3.0	124	127
ATL	15	14	.517	4.0	119	91
LAD	14	14	.500	4.5	125	111
ARI	13	16	.448	6.0	109	123
NYM	12	16	.429	6.5	83	104
MIA	12	17	.414	7.0	120	123
PIT	11	17	.393	7.5	121	135
CHC	8	21	.276	11.0	111	153
HOU	5	22	.185	13.0	75	149

 

McCann's Slower Bat

Brian McCann of the Atlanta Braves came back from an injury on August 14th, and but his offense has not recovered.  His .174/.296/.347 slash line stands as one of the reasons the Braves have slid to a one-game lead over the Cardinals in the NL Wild Card race.    McCann injured his left oblique muscle, and it appears the injury hurt his swing.

McCann 2011	Pre-Injury	Post-Injury
Swing Pct.	45.2	44.7
Miss Pct.	17.7	23.6

McCann is swinging about the same amount, but missing much more.  That's puts him a hole more often, which makes Brian even more vulnerable.  The numbers say to me that his bat speed hasn't returned.  He's timing pitches like he was healthy, but he just can get to them as quickly as he did before.

You can see this graphically in his contact rate:

Brian McCann, contact rate, 2011 season pre-injury.McCann covered the plate well before the injury.

Brian McCann, contact rate, 2011 season post-injury.McCann can't handle high pitches, where a hitters bat needs to be quicker, and he also has problems with the outside half of the strike zone.  He may not get his timing  back until he has time to heal fully this off-season.

"Old Player Skills"

Matt Klaassen over at fangraphs.com recently looked at which players under the age of 27 in 2010 displayed "old player skills"; that is, players who tend to have high walk and power numbers, with low speed and batting average. Any player in the top 25% of walk rate, a speed score in the bottom 25 percent, ISO in the top half, and batting average in the lowest half made the cut. He found only three players in 2010: Prince Fielder, Brian McCann, and Ike Davis.

The first name that popped into my head when reading the article was Geovany Soto. Given that he turned 27 last year, he missed Klaassen’s cut for the study. However, his walk rate (16.0%), Speed Score (1.1), and ISO (.217) all put him in range of that "old player skill" category. His .280 batting average was a touch high, but not enough to totally disqualify him from consideration.

All three of Klaassen’s 2010 old skill players (and Soto) had below league average contact ratings last year as well. I’m not sure a low contact percentage fits the mold for "old player skills." However, older hitters, specifically power hitters, do tend to lose some quickness in their swing; this can certainly lead to more missed balls. And there is some evidence that players with power swings that hit for low average (like Adam Dunn) tend to have lower contact percentages.