Ryan Dempster Can Handle the American League

On most nights in 2012, the performance of Boston Red Sox starting pitchers could best be described as brief and brutal. Sox starters taxed the bullpen by ranking 10th in the American League in innings pitched and taxed fans' patience by besting just the Indians and Twins in ERA. The Dropkick Murphys gave way to Murphy's Law: Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz regressed, Daniel Bard lost the strike zone, Josh Beckett lost his fastball, and John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka made a combined $25 million to compare Tommy John scars.

Seeking stability, Boston recently signed Ryan Dempster to a two-year, $26.5 million contract. The move might not placate anxious Sox fans, however. Dempster served DL stints last year for quadriceps and shoulder injuries and then got thumped on the mound after changing leagues, posting a 5.09 ERA with the Texas Rangers. As a Chicago Cub in the non-DH league, Dempster had a 2.25 ERA.

While injuries are a concern for a hurler entering his age-36 season, talk about Dempster's five-plus ERA in Texas is overblown. The veteran right-hander proved last summer that his stuff plays in the American League. He didn't pound the zone as much, but he compensated by inducing more swings and misses and ground balls:

Team	Pct. of Pitches Thrown in Strike Zone	Miss Pct.	Ground Ball Pct.
Dempster as a Cub	49.2	24.7	43.8
NL Avg. for SP	49	21	46.9
Dempster as a Ranger	47	26.5	46.5
AL Avg. for SP	49.3	20.9	45.9

If Dempster got more whiffs and worm-burners, then why did his ERA balloon in the AL? It seems like he ran into some bad luck in Texas. Dempster's batting average on balls in play jumped from .244 with the Cubs to .335 with the Rangers (the average for starting pitchers in both leagues is about .295). And his home run per fly ball rate spiked from 10.4% to 13.5% (the NL average is 10.3%, and the AL average is 11.3%). While pitchers have considerable control in getting hitters to swing and miss or hit a chopper, they're mostly at the mercy of the Baseball Gods when it comes to seeing-eye singles or wall-scraping homers.

It's not like Dempster threw more hittable pitches in Texas, either. He actually tossed fewer belt-high pitches as a Ranger (26.4%) than he did as a Cub (28.3%), and his percentage of pitches thrown high in the zone was basically unchanged (about 31% in both cities). Dempster's batting average and homer spike in the AL looks like the product of bad bounces, not poor command.

After back-to-back nightmarish seasons, Sox fans might wonder if their club has been cursed anew. But with better luck, Dempster should be a solid sign for Boston.

Flyin' Hawaiian Lacks Punch vs. Righties

Did the Boston Red Sox just commit three years and $39 million to a platoon-worthy outfielder? ESPN's Keith Law thinks so (subscription required), taking the sox to task for giving Shane Victorino so much coin for his age 32 through 34 seasons:

Shane Victorino's three-year, $39 million contract with the Boston Red Sox vaults to the top of the rankings of the worst contracts signed so far this offseason, giving him virtually the same total dollars that Angel Pagan -- a superior player -- will receive in a contract that's a year longer.

...

Victorino is a platoon outfielder at this point, and paying him $13 million a year, even with the rapid salary escalation we're seeing this offseason, is mad as pants. His bat speed was noticeably slower in 2012, especially later in the season, and despite being a switch-hitter, he doesn't really hit right-handed pitching.

Law's assessment might be on the harsh side, considering that Victorino's defensive and base running skills still made him an above-average player last season (3.3 Wins Above Replacement) despite a subpar showing at the plate. But Victorino did scuffle against right-handed pitching, with his triple-slash line falling from .271/.333/.456 in 441 plate appearances during the 2011 season to just .230/.295/.332 in 480 PA last year.

Could bat speed be an issue, like Law suggested? Maybe so. Check out Victorino's slugging percentage by pitch location against right-handed fastballs in 2011, and then 2012:

Victorino vs. right-handed fastballs, 2011

 

Victorino vs. right-handed fastballs, 2012

Victorino slugged .437 against righty fastballs in 2011, above the .412 average for left-handed hitters that year. In 2012, however, Victorino's .268 slugging percentage was dead last among lefty hitters getting at least 100 plate appearances versus righties. He chased and missed more righty fastballs, and his ground ball rate climbed as well:

Victorino vs. right-handed fastballs, 2011-12

Year	Chase Pct.	Miss Pct.	GB Pct.
2011	24.3	11.7	37.7
2012	29.6	13.6	44.6
Avg. for LHB vs. RHP, 2011-12	24.4	14.9	39.4

Victorino's range and base-running prowess should make him more than a fourth outfielder, even if he continues to get beat by righty fastballs. But for Boston to get more than a marginal return on investment on this deal, the Flyin' Hawaiian needs to show some punch from the left side.

Monster Mash: Red Sox Land New Corner Outfielder in Jonny Gomes

Throughout the offseason, the Red Sox have been working on a deal with free agent outfielder Cody Ross to keep him in a Red Sox uniform for the foreseeable future. With the chance that they could lose out on a bidding war for his services, the Red Sox acquired a right handed hitting force in Jonny Gomes for 2 years and $10 million. With the way the market is playing out, this could turn into a steal for the team, as there is slim picking for quality corner outfielders.

The Red Sox need to return to playing better in Fenway Park this season. After many seasons of success at home, Boston lost more contests at home than it won, which did not please the Fenway Faithful. Gomes has had an incredible power stroke for his career, albeit low AVG numbers. Boston is trying to return to its roots and the strategy that won them a championship: seeing pitches and getting on base. Gomes had a .377 OBP last season, which was significantly higher than Cody Ross (.326). Considering the difference in price there could be between these two contracts, Boston may have made the correct call. This will not stop them from attempting to bring in Ross to man the other corner position, but having the powerful bat of Gomes next year certainly will not hurt them.

Take a look at his hit chart below:

Jonny Gomes hit spread for 2012 with the Oakland AthleticsGomes was quite clearly a dead-pull hitter; all eighteen of his home runs and eight of his ten doubles went to left field. This is the kind of hitter the Red Sox would love to have hitting balls in Fenway, considering the looming wall in left field. 

Gomes has also had excellent career splits versus left-handed pitching, something that has been lacking in Boston over the last few years. He joins the Red Sox after a season in which he compiled a .974 OPS against lefties including eleven of his eighteen home runs. That number would have made him third on the team behind David Ortiz and Ross.

Gomes SLUG versus left-handed pitching in 2012

Gomes will be a great fit as a hitter at Fenway Park, and if he manages to learn the wall in left field, his limited fielding ability may not hurt the Red Sox all that much. Pending other moves that the team makes, he could be in a platoon role with other players, serving primarily as a player when the team faces lefties. He is also well known as an excellent clubhouse presence, something the Sox need in spades. 

In limited time during the 2012 season (97 games, 333 PA), Gomes put up a stat line of .262/.377/.491/.868/18/47 (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS/HR/RBI). If given an opportunity, Gomes could provide very similar numbers to Jason Bay circa 2009 during his brief tenure with the team (.267/.384/.537/.921/36/119). This would be a welcome addition and at $5 million per year, it could be one of the biggest steals of the offseason.