Jake Arrieta's Sinking Walk Rate

Baltimore Orioles fans have seen plenty of young arms crash and burn over the years. Entering 2012, Jake Arrieta appeared close to joining the likes of Matt Riley, Adam Loewen, Brandon Erbe, Hayden Penn and Chris Tillman in the pitching prospect graveyard. The 6-4 righty, given a $1.1 million bonus out of TCU back in 2007, compiled an 85 ERA+ in 2010-11 while posting the highest walk rate (4.4 per nine innings) of any American League starter tossing at least 200 frames. Arrieta's career prospects were quickly sinking.

A sinker, however, is a big reason why Arrieta is thriving for the shockingly competitive O's. He has cut his walk rate down to 2.1 per nine innings and boasts a 116 ERA+ after shutting down the Yankees and ending Ivan Nova's 15-game winning streak last night. Arrieta threw 44 sinkers against New York, getting strikes with 30 of them (68 percent). The 26-year-old is throwing the pitch more often -- and more accurately-- in 2012.

From 2010-11, about 21 percent of Arrieta's pitches were classified as sinkers. He often missed off the outside corner to lefties (inside to righties):

Arrieta's sinker location, 2010-11

Arrieta threw just 42 percent of his sinkers in the strike zone, well below the 50 percent average for MLB starting pitchers over that period. But this year, Arrieta has increased his sinker usage (to about one-third of his pitches) and is pounding the zone with the 93 mph offering:

Arrieta's sinker location, 2012

Arrieta has located 52 percent of his sinkers in the zone. Those extra pitches over the plate haven't come at the expense of more extra-base hits, either. Hitters are slugging .308 against Arrieta's sinker in 2012, down from .452 in 2010-11.

Chris Davis Connecting, Crushing for O's

The Baltimore Orioles enter Wednesday's 7 p.m. tilt with the New York Yankees on ESPN with a 1.5 game lead over the Bombers for second place in the American League East, and first baseman Chris Davis is a major reason why. The former Rangers farmhand had just a 94 OPS+ in parts of four seasons with Texas and posted the same mark with the O's last summer after getting swapped to Baltimore along with Tommy Hunter for Koji Uehara. Given one more chance in 2012, Davis is thriving by making more contact.

The lefty slugger struck out in 31.5 percent of his plate appearances from 2008-11, trailing only new teammate Mark Reynolds and Kelly Shoppach for the highest K rate in the majors over that time frame. Davis was particularly whiff-tastic on pitches thrown high in the strike zone. Check out his contact rate by pitch location from 2008-11, and then the league average for lefty hitters:

Davis' contact rate by pitch location, 2008-11

League average contact rate by pitch location for left-handed hitters, 2008-11

Davis missed 42 percent of the high pitches that he swung at from 2008-11, compared to the 18-19 percent major league average. Danny Espinosa, Reynolds and Russ Branyan were the only hitters to come up empty more often when swinging at high stuff. This year, Davis has made solid gains in connecting on upper-third pitches:

Davis' contact rate by pitch location, 2012

The 26-year-old's miss rate on high pitches has declined to 27 percent. That, in turn, has helped him cut his K rate to 22 percent and tap into the power present in his 6-foot-3, 230 pound frame. Davis has five home runs, matching his 2011 total. And with a 175 OPS+ he ranks behind just the Cubs' equally surprising slugger shedding the Quad-A label, Bryan LaHair (240), and the White Sox' Paul Konerko (194) among first basemen. Davis might not be this good of a hitter, but the extra contact will help him stay in Buck Showalter's lineup and buck concerns that his Pacific Coast League exploits wouldn't translate against pitchers at the highest level.

Ivan Nova's Curveball

Ivan Nova Curveballs

	P	Zone%	Chase%	Miss%
2011 Season	589	41.3%	26.0%	26.6%
4/9/2012	23	60.9%	55.6%	45.5%

Ivan Nova's curveball was really working last night. In two strike counts, he threw the pitch ten times, resulting in no hits and five strikeouts. Of those five strikeouts, four came on curveballs located out of the zone. I'd like to think that he was able to set that up by locating his curve in the strike zone throughout the game. If batters were aware that Nova was willing to throw the pitch in the zone, they were probably more likely to hack at it in two strike counts.

The two hits he gave up on curves were both located inside the strike zone: a double by Wieters in the 4th on a 2-1 pitch with the bases empty, and a single by Adam Jones in the 6th on an 0-1 pitch with the bases empty.

The one backwards K Nova recorded with his curveball last night came in the bottom of the seventh against Robert Andino. That must be why he was so testy after the game....