Adam Jones Pulls in Big Pay Day

Adam Jones is enjoying an MVP-caliber season for the first-place Baltimore Orioles, and the O's are now poised to give the 26-year-old a six-year contract extension in the range of $85 million. 

A perennial breakout pick who frustrated many by not making the most of his 6-foot-3, 225 pound frame at the plate (he averaged 18 homers and a 104 OPS+ during his first four years in Baltimore), Jones has finally tapped into the power that made him a top prospect in the Mariners' farm system. His 14 homers are tied for second in the majors, and his 161 OPS+ ranks in the top 20. Jones is about to pull in a lot of cash because he's pulling the ball more often and with more authority.

Jones' pull percentage has climbed considerably in 2012, from under 45 percent during his four decent seasons with the O's to nearly 57 percent:

Jones' Spray Splits

Year	Pull	Center	Opposite
2008-11	44.6	33.6	21.8
2012	56.6	29	14.4

Pulling the ball more often is usually a good thing for a hitter. Righties have a .559 slugging percentage when pulling the ball this season, compared to .479 to center field and .458 to the opposite side. The extra pulled pitches have definitely been a positive for Jones, as his slugging percentage to the pull side has soared by over 250 points:

Jones' slugging percentage by side of field

Year	Pull	Center	Opposite
2008-11	.660	.454	.528
2012	.912	.571	.571

Jones has the eighth-highest slugging percentage on pulled pitches among righty hitters, sandwiched between Edwin Encarnacion and Ryan Braun. Eleven of Jones' homers have been ripped down the left field line.

While Jones still isn't drawing many walks, he has shown slightly better plate discipline this season (35 percent chase rate, compared to 39 percent from 2008-11) and his list of comparable players on Baseball-Reference through age 25 includes the likes of Dave Winfield, Reggie Smith, Andre Dawson, Dwight Evans and Sammy Sosa. It's too early to say that Jones is Matt Kemp sans stolen bases, but this deal looks fair if he contributes three to four Wins Above Replacement per year. It's a steal if he remains one of the game's great pull hitters.

Top Hitters with Two Strikes

Most Hits with Two Strikes in 2012

Rank	PLAYER	pa	H	2B	3B	HR
T1	Adam Jones	83	24	3	0	3
T1	Derek Jeter	77	24	6	0	0
3	Josh Reddick	84	23	4	0	0
T4	David Ortiz	73	22	3	0	4
T4	Martin Prado	81	22	4	1	0
T6	Joe Mauer	85	21	4	1	4
T6	Rafael Furcal	76	21	3	0	1
T8	Mark Ellis	79	20	2	0	1
T8	Emilio Bonifacio	100	20	5	1	0
T10	Daniel Murphy	72	19	3	1	0
T10	Ryan Braun	82	19	0	1	1
T10	Bryan LaHair	74	19	4	0	0
T10	Prince Fielder	76	19	7	0	4
T10	Elvis Andrus	81	19	5	0	3
T10	A. J. Ellis	72	19	4	0	4
T10	Dustin Pedroia	83	19	5	2	2
T17	Edwin Encarnacion	89	17	7	0	2
T17	Joey Votto	78	17	4	0	3
T17	Jayson Werth	69	17	2	0	2
T17	Brett Lawrie	76	17	3	0	1
T17	Michael Bourn	92	17	5	0	1
T17	Michael Cuddyer	81	17	1	0	0
T17	Curtis Granderson	92	17	0	0	3
T17	Ian Kinsler	87	17	1	1	1
T17	Nelson Cruz	80	17	2	0	0

Adam Jones has been on fire for the Baltimore Orioles. He's batting .302 with a .591 slugging percentage. And his .397 wOBA is 67 points higher than his 2008-2011 average. Jones is apparently doing much better with two strikes as well, as he's tied with Derek Jeter for the league lead in hits when one pitch away from a strikeout.

In 2011, Jones had 51 hits in two strike counts, and with not even a quarter of the current season finished he's almost half way there. His wOBA with two strikes between 2008 and 2011 was .245. In 2012: .388.

One possible reason for his success this year is that Jones has become more selective when down in the count. Between 2008 and 2011, Jones chased 54.0% of pitches out of the zone with two strikes. This season that number is down to 49.4%. Jones is also making more contact in two strike counts as his miss rate is down to 19.1% from 22.8% between the 2008 and 2011 seasons.

Of course, there's always a little bit of luck involved with balls in play, and Jones is no exception. His BABIP with two strikes is a rather high .408, compared to .312 between 2008 and 2011, and a .298 League Average BABIP with two strikes in 2012.

Best Mistake Hitters since 2010

Highest HR% on Mistake Pitches since 2010

Player	P	PA	AVG	SLUG	K%	HR%
Jose Bautista	474	183	.396	.956	6.6%	16.5%
David Ortiz	383	176	.405	.971	4.5%	15.0%
Matt Joyce	250	97	.389	.958	11.3%	14.7%
Shelley Duncan	204	75	.387	.893	21.3%	14.7%
Jim Thome	214	83	.402	.927	16.9%	14.6%
Russell Branyan	172	62	.306	.806	19.4%	14.5%
Matt Kemp	508	185	.379	.879	9.7%	13.7%
Pedro Alvarez	214	82	.415	.915	12.2%	13.4%
Mike Stanton	293	116	.421	.956	10.3%	13.2%
Pat Burrell	246	79	.408	.921	11.4%	13.2%
Josh Hamilton	252	124	.369	.820	8.9%	13.1%
Brennan Boesch	276	129	.414	.875	7.0%	12.5%
Ryan Braun	458	178	.434	.914	6.7%	12.0%
Brian McCann	301	109	.367	.789	11.9%	11.9%
Carlos Pena	361	139	.296	.741	12.2%	11.9%
Jorge Posada	237	101	.257	.644	16.8%	11.9%
Adam LaRoche	242	93	.376	.817	9.7%	11.8%
Joey Votto	420	165	.466	.975	9.7%	11.7%
Mark Reynolds	459	170	.293	.731	17.6%	11.4%
Carlos Quentin	303	109	.286	.705	7.3%	11.4%
Prince Fielder	368	159	.365	.755	6.3%	11.3%
Albert Pujols	407	162	.379	.814	4.3%	11.2%
Curtis Granderson	411	110	.336	.776	3.6%	11.2%
Kelly Johnson	412	153	.329	.763	9.2%	11.2%

Make a mistake to any of these hitters, and you're bound to pay for it. The above list includes only pitches that crossed the center of the strike zone since 2010. It's no surprise that Jose Bautista has a high HR% on mistake pitches; same for David Ortiz, Matt Kemp and a bunch of others.

I'm somewhat surprised to see Matt Joyce as #3 on the list. Of the 36 home runs he's hit since the start of 2010, 14 have come on pitches right in the center of the strike zone. Eight of those HRs came in 2011 when he hit 19 total long balls.

Nick Swisher has the most hits on mistake pitches with 80, while teammate Derek Jeter's 79 hits has him tied for second with Michael Young.

Mark Reynolds, #20 on the list, also has 30 strike outs on pitches over the middle of the plate since 2010. That's second only to Adam Dunn with 33.