Manny Machado a Quick Study

Manny Machado was able to keep his head above water at the plate during his rookie season, posting a 98 OPS+ in 2012 despite barely being out of his teens and getting minimal at-bats above the A-Ball level. This year, Machado is crushing it. He's got a 136 OPS+, putting him in the same neighborhood as Andrew McCutchen, Robinson Cano and Pablo Sandoval. If he keeps raking like that, he'll hold the best OPS+ by a third-baseman during his age-20 season since Jimmie Foxx, who dabbled at the hot corner before settling in at first base.

How has Machado done it? Here's a closer look at his marked offensive improvement.

• Machado's going after fewer junk pitches off the plate, lowering his chase rate from 31% as a rookie to 23% in 2013. That's well below the 27% big league average this season. Manny has cut his chase rate against low pitches in half, from 32% to 16%.

Machado's swing rate by pitch location, 2012

Machado's swing rate by pitch location, 2013

 

• Machado hasn't just shortened his strike zone -- he has also connected much more often. As a rookie, his miss rate (25%) was higher than the MLB average (22%). But this season, he has whiffed just 17%. His biggest gain has come on inside pitches, with his miss rate falling from 24% to just 10%.

Machado's contact rate by pitch location, 2012

Machado's contact rate by pitch location, 2013

 

• That extra contact on inside pitches has been loud. Machado has clubbed five homers and slugged .645 against inner-third offerings, which is 230 points above the MLB average (.415). Last year, he hit  two homers and slugged .406.

Jim Johnson is out of control

It's bad enough for closer Jim Johnson that his Orioles had dropped six straight contests, prior to last night's victory over the Yankees, but Johnson has now blown three consecutive 9th inning saves.

Johnson was the beneficiary of Nate McLouth's 10th inning walkoff homer last night and earned the win with a perfect top of the 10th retiring the Yanks on line out, fly out, and pop out to get the victory. 

The question is, "what is going on with Johnson in saves situations?"

Nine to Know

Since the start of the 2008 season, nine relievers have had streaks of at least three blown saves

Rk		Strk Start	End	Games	W	L	GF	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	Tm
1	Matt Thornton	2011-04-06	2011-04-13	4	0	2	0	4.0	10	10	4	3	3	1	CHW
2	Tyler Clippard	2010-05-06	2010-05-11	4	3	1	1	4.1	8	4	4	3	5	1	WSN
3	Jim Johnson	2013-05-14	2013-05-20	3	0	2	1	2.1	9	8	8	2	1	2	BAL
4	Jordan Walden	2011-06-22	2011-06-27	3	1	1	1	3.1	3	3	3	2	0	1	LAA
5	Brandon League	2011-05-10	2011-05-13	3	0	3	3	1.2	9	7	7	0	1	1	SEA
6	Ryan Webb	2011-04-25	2011-04-30	3	0	0	0	1.1	4	1	1	1	0	0	FLA
7	Nick Masset	2011-04-10	2011-04-13	3	0	2	2	3.1	7	6	6	4	1	1	CIN
8	Billy Wagner	2008-06-08	2008-06-12	3	0	1	1	2.1	6	6	6	2	4	2	NYM
9	Hideki Okajima	2008-04-22	2008-04-30	3	0	0	0	3.2	5	1	1	1	5	1	BOS

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/21/2013.

As you can see, not only has Johnson blown three straight saves but has given up more runs than any of the other relievers

This blown save streak was particularly surprising in light of the fact that Johnson had been running a streak of 35 straight converted save opportunities going back to last July 30.

From July 30, 2012 to May 10, 2013

• Johnson appeared in 45 games, throwing 44 innings.
• He earned 35 saves, had no blown saves and had a record of 2-2.
• He allowed three runs on 30 hits including just one homer and three doubles.
• He walked eight and whiffed 34.
• He held batters to a .196 batting avg., a .241 OBP and a .241 slugging pct.
• Of the 645 pitches thrown, approximately 50% of them were in the strike zone, with 74.3% fastballs (477) with an average velocity of 93.8 mph.
• Batters put 119 balls in play with 64 (53.8%) grounders

The blown save streak May 14 to May 20, 2013 (still active)

• Johnson appeared in three games, throwing 2.1 innings.
• He earned no saves, has had three blown saves and a record of 0-2.
• He has allowed eight runs on nine hits including two homers and one double.
• He has walked two and whiffed one.
• Batters are battering him with a .643 batting avg., a .706 OBP and a 1.143 slugging pct.
• Of the 69 pitches thrown, approximately 35.3% of them were in the strike zone, with 70.6% fastballs (48) with an average velocity of 93.9 mph.
• Batters put 13 balls in play with six (46.1%) grounders, three which went for hits.

The problem seems to be Johnson's control in and out of the strike zone.

Of Johnson's 69 pitches, only 24 have been in the zone.

Batters have chased 11 pitches and Johnson has picked up just seven called strikes and five swings-and-misses.

Johnson's been all over the place

Johnson has thrown 48 fastballs over the last three games and batters are sitting on the pitch going 8-for-11 knowing Johnson has trouble locating it as you can see in the heat map below.

Johnson is a good reliever who was pitching over his head and is now in a saves slump. Perhaps last night's game will straighten him out. However, you want your reliever throwing strikeouts and ground outs, not allowing balls in the air.

Look at Johnson's 2012 numbers:

• 15.2% strikeouts
• 12.3% ground balls
• 3.6% line drives
• 3.8% fly balls
• 0.8% pop-ups 

Look at Johnson's 2013 numbers:

• 19.8% strikeouts
• 8.4% ground balls
• 3.9% line drives
• 4.5% fly balls
• 1.4% pop-ups

Yes, his strikeouts are up this season but his balls in the air are also up. This is probably why his BAbip is up from .252 to .306.

There are few better baseball minds than Orioles pitching coordinator Rick Peterson and pitching coach Rick Adair. Unless there is something physical bothering Johnson, I expect to see a Johnson recovery coming shortly.

Chris Davis is Making Earl Weaver Proud

Chris Davis is one pace to blast 162 homers and drive in 648 runs during the 2013 season. Okay, so the O's first baseman probably won't put Barry Bonds and Hack Wilson to shame this year. But he is off to an historic start, becoming just the fourth player ever to begin the season with a home run in each of his first four games (Willie Mays, Mark McGwire and Nelson Cruz are the others). Davis' eighth-inning grand slam against the Twins was especially fitting on a night when Baltimore honored the late Earl Weaver, who abhorred bunting and played for the big inning with sluggers like Boog Powell and Eddie Murray. Here's how Davis has made the Earl of Baltimore proud.

• Davis has hit two homers apiece off right-handers (Roberto Hernandez and Jeremy Hellickson) and lefties (Jake McGee and Tyler Robertson). The lefty slugger was lousy against same-handed pitching early on during his big league career (he batted .236 and slugged .418 in 298 plate appearances against left-handers from 2008-11), but he's now batting .267 and slugging .533 in 126 PA versus lefties since the beginning of the 2012 season. The sample size is small, but he has significantly cut his miss rate against lefties from 2008-11 (35%) to 2012-present (26.5%).
• Three of his four homers have come on pitches thrown on the outside corner of the plate, with Davis flicking two of them to the opposite field and pulling one to right. Davis has hit 15 homers on pitches thrown outside since the beginning of 2012, tying him with Edwin Encarnacion for third-most among MLB hitters.

Most HR on pitches thrown outside, 2012-Present

• Two of Davis' homers have come on the first pitch. He has as many first-pitch homers from 2012-13 (nine) as former free-swinging teammate Josh Hamilton, and he ranks in the top ten among all MLB batters in first-pitch HR over that time frame.
• Davis also has two home runs on soft stuff, driving a slider and a changeup over the fence. You might think that a hulking, high-strikeout slugger like Davis would struggle against breaking and off-speed pitches, but he actually has the second-most HR in the majors on curves, sliders and changeups since 2012.

Most HR on breaking and off-speed pitches, 2012-13