Pettitte's Slider Still a Put-Away Pitch

With the Yankees locked in a typically vicious AL East race and Michael Pineda out for the year, Andy Pettitte's return from retirement has morphed from a depth-adding bit of nostalgia to a crucial factor in the Bombers' playoff prospects. Pettitte, days from his 40th birthday, hasn't disappointed. The left-hander blanked the Rays over 7.1 innings last night, striking out ten batters while pulling the Yankees within a half-game of the division lead. Pettitte's slider was key, as he used it a quarter of the time and got five punch-outs with the pitch. That breaker is why Pettitte boasts the best K rate (8.1 per nine innings) since he left New York for Houston back in 2004.

Pettitte is doing a superb job of jumping ahead in the count, throwing a first-pitch strike nearly 68 percent of the time while throwing a nearly even distribution of fastballs, cutters and curveballs in first-pitch counts. But when he gets two strikes on the batter, it's time to break out the slider. Pettitte has tossed his slider nearly half of the time in two-strike counts. He's burying that slider low-and-away to fellow lefties with two strikes, and in on the knees of righties:

Pettitte's slider location with two strikes, 2012

A hanging two-strike slider from Pettitte is about as rare a sight as the Transit of Venus: Just three of his 75 two-strike sliders thrown (four percent) have been located high in the strike zone. While those low sliders are out of the zone, they're close enough that hitters down to their last strike haven't been able to lay off them:

Hitters' swing rate by pitch location vs. Pettitte's two-strike sliders, 2012

Opponents have chased 54 percent of Pettitte's two-strike sliders, well above the 46 percent average for starting pitchers in such situations. And those off-the-plate swings on two-strike sliders are producing precious little contact:

Hitters' contact rate by pitch location vs. Pettitte's two-strike sliders, 2012

Pettitte's slider has a 42 percent miss rate with two strikes (32 percent average for starters), and he has used his slider to record 21 of his 32 Ks this season. That, in turn, has helped him post the tenth-best ERA+ (156) among starters throwing at least 30 innings this season. Not bad for a greybeard who started the spring merely throwing batting practice.

Andy Pettitte Breaks out the Cutter, Unretires

Turns out, Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter won't be the only active members of the Yankees' vaunted "Core Four" in 2012. No, Jorge Posada isn't coming back. Rather, we haven't seen the last of Andy Pettitte giving hitters a piercing stare over his glove as he gets the sign. After sitting out 2011, Number 46 has returned to the Bronx on a minor league deal reportedly worth $2.5 million.

Last we saw him in 2010, the lefty was limited to 129 innings due to a groin strain but was still highly effective when on the bump. He struck out seven hitters per nine, walked 2.9 and boasted a 46% ground ball rate, good for a 132 ERA+ that trailed only CC Sabathia among Yankees starters.

The key for Pettitte was the cutter. That darting low-80s offering, thrown about one-fifth of the time, limited hitters to a .132 average, a .187 on-base percentage and a .271 slugging percentage. By contrast, batters hit .263/.322/.410 overall against cutters in 2010.

Pettitte uses his cutter as a chase pitch, going to it 44% of the time in two-strike counts. He gets ridiculous chase and whiff rates with the cutter. Check out hitters' swing rate by pitch location versus Pettitte's cutter in 2010, and then the league average:

Hitters' swing rate by location vs. Pettitte's cutter, 2010

Average swing rate by location vs. cutters, 2010

Opponents chased 47% of Pettitte's cutters off the plate in 2010, tied with Cleveland's Josh Tomlin for the highest rate among starting pitches. And those chases led to lots of empty swings. Look at batters' contact rate by pitch location against Pettitte's cutter, and then the league average:

 Hitters' contact rate by location vs. Pettitte's cutter, 2010

Average contact rate by location vs. cutters, 2010

Hitters missed 40% of the time they swung at a Pettitte cutter, the second-highest clip among starters (Washington's Craig Stammen was first).

If the now 39-year-old Pettitte still has his cutter, he'll eventually join an already-deep starting mix including Sabathia, Michael Pineda, Hiroki Kuroda, Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes, Freddy Garcia and prospects like Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Brett Marshall, D.J. Mitchell and Adam Warren. So much for that whole, "the Yankees don't have enough pitching" meme.

Andy Pettitte Battling

With the retirement of lefty pitcher Andy Pettitte, the Yankees will be down a solid starter for the 2011 season. Pettitte developed a reputation as a "battler", fighting in and out of jams towards the end of his second stint with the Yankees. It's possible this view is simply a matter of selective memory. However, a quick look at some of his numbers suggests he was a better pitcher when he had his back against the wall.

Andy Pettitte 2008-10

	PA	BB%	K%	Cntct%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Overall	2422	7.5%	18.2%	80.3%	.268	.322	.403	.326
Men On Base	1027	9.0%	17.6%	78.4%	.281	.342	.426	.350
→ w/ No Outs	246	5.7%	16.7%	84.3%	.284	.305	.394	.329
RISP	564	10.3%	18.4%	77.4%	.275	.340	.418	.351
→ w/ No Outs	109	4.6%	8.3%	89.5%	.341	.330	.459	.377
Loaded	53	7.5%	24.5%	71.0%	.178	.245	.289	.251
→ w/ No Outs	6	0.0%	16.7%	100.0%	.000	.000	.000	.000

Pettitte wasn't doing anything special with runners in scoring position. However, with the bases loaded, his K-rate jumped 6% while managing a greater rate of swings and misses. Since 2008, in the 6 plate appearances in which he faced a bases loaded, no outs situation, Pettitte yielded no hits, no walks, and struck out one batter looking (Kendry Morales on September 10, 2008).

When he had his back to the wall, Andy Pettitte was at his best. The Yankees will surely miss that toughness this year.