The Dodgers (and others) struggles with runners in scoring position

In today's Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo writes extensively about the Dodgers troubles hitting with runners in scoring position.

Cafardo points out that the Dodgers entered the weekend ranked fifth in batting average (.255), and second in on-base percentage (.330) in the NL, but 14th in slugging and 11th in OPS. With runners in scoring position, the Dodgers are hitting .213, 13th in the NL.

They’re also 12th in OBP, 15th in slugging, and 14th in OPS in the NL with runners in scoring position.

“The key for us is execution,” Dodger GM Ned Colletti told Cafardo. “We’re getting runners on base but we just can’t seem to get that one hit at the right time.”

The Dodgers are just one of the teams struggling when hitting with RISP.

The major league average for hitting w/RISP this season is .255.

Their American League neighbors, the Angels, are equally awful also hit .223. Then again neither of these two teams' fan base should be complaining as much as those who follow the residents of "the friendly confines." The Cubs are the only team in baseball hitting under .200 with runners in scoring position. And their Second City neighbors, the White Sox are only hitting .221.

The Marlins, Mariners, Jays and Diamondbacks are all under .220 in their miserable displays of hitting when it matters.

15 players whose career average with runners in scoring position fall below .255

(at least 2000 PA w/RISP)

Rk	I	Player	From	To	G	BA	PA	AB	H	RBI
1		Adam Dunn	2001	2013	1268	.222	2044	1542	342	607
2		Tom Brunansky	1981	1994	1232	.239	2023	1676	400	632
3		Dave Kingman	1971	1986	1302	.240	2066	1774	425	771
4		Royce Clayton	1991	2007	1374	.243	2133	1808	440	598
5		Lance Parrish	1977	1995	1396	.244	2244	1954	477	692
6	I	Jim Wynn	1963	1977	1334	.245	2201	1704	418	638
7		Bobby Grich	1970	1986	1368	.248	2169	1712	425	609
8		Andruw Jones	1996	2012	1585	.249	2632	2154	537	824
9		Darrell Porter	1971	1987	1238	.251	2000	1550	389	623
10		Graig Nettles	1968	1988	1781	.252	2689	2218	560	886
11		Chris Speier	1971	1989	1409	.252	2153	1745	439	576
12	I	Darrell Evans	1969	1989	1825	.253	2919	2242	568	895
13		Ron Gant	1987	2003	1285	.254	2040	1680	427	674
14	I	Bill Mazeroski	1956	1972	1354	.254	2113	1806	459	641
15		Benito Santiago	1986	2005	1339	.254	2125	1841	467	696

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/12/2013.

There are 121 batters who this season have to the plate at least 20 times with runners in scoring position who are hitting under .255, 56 of them are under .200.

Here are the 25 under .150

Rk	Player	BA	PA	AB	H	RBI
1	Eduardo Nunez	.000	24	16	0	4
2	Luis Cruz	.038	29	26	1	2
3	Dan Uggla	.050	26	20	1	4
4	Ryan Flaherty	.050	25	20	1	3
5	Darwin Barney	.063	23	16	1	1
6	Martin Prado	.063	37	32	2	4
7	Nolan Reimold	.067	22	15	1	4
8	B.J. Upton	.083	33	24	2	3
9	Rickie Weeks	.088	45	34	3	8
10	Nick Hundley	.091	27	22	2	7
11	Mike Moustakas	.091	30	22	2	4
12	Miguel Montero	.095	36	21	2	10
13	Alex Avila	.103	32	29	3	3
14	Josh Hamilton	.103	36	29	3	6
15	Mike Morse	.108	41	37	4	7
16	Chris Iannetta	.118	29	17	2	6
17	Eric Sogard	.125	28	24	3	3
18	Maicer Izturis	.130	25	23	3	3
19	Ike Davis	.133	36	30	4	6
20	Tyler Flowers	.136	23	22	3	8
21	Skip Schumaker	.136	27	22	3	4
22	Cliff Pennington	.136	30	22	3	8
23	Will Middlebrooks	.138	33	29	4	9
24	Justin Smoak	.148	35	27	4	5
25	Chris Parmelee	.148	31	27	4	5

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/12/2013.

The Dodgers individual batters with runners in scoring position.

Fans certainly can have no complaints with Adrian Gonzalez or Mark Ellis.

But Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier are very different stories.

Rk	Player	BA	PA	AB	H	RBI
1	Mark Ellis	.545	14	11	6	10
2	Adrian Gonzalez	.500	38	28	14	23
3	Juan Uribe	.273	17	11	3	4
4	Carl Crawford	.269	31	26	7	3
5	Nick Punto	.250	15	12	3	4
6	A.J. Ellis	.241	37	29	7	7
7	Justin Sellers	.231	15	13	3	1
8	Andre Ethier	.200	40	35	7	8
9	Matt Kemp	.171	44	35	6	11
10	Skip Schumaker	.136	27	22	3	4
11	Jerry Hairston	.071	16	14	1	3
12	Luis Cruz	.038	29	26	1	2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/12/2013.

It appears, that even when the Dodgers recover from their injuries, if they don't recover their hitting stroke with runners in scoring position, this season will continue to be ugly.

Dodgers Extend Ethier

The Dodgers are reportedly close to announcing a five-year, $85 million contract extension with outfielder Andre Ethier with a vesting option that could push the deal's total worth to $100 million. Fully healed from a right knee injury that required season-ending surgery last September, Ethier is enjoying a resurgent season at the plate. He sits just one home run shy of his 2011 total (11), and his slugging percentage has climbed from .421 to .509. But while Ethier has bounced back by bashing breaking and off-speed stuff this year, this deal could turn into a boondoggle before long.

Ethier's comeback year has been fueled by a major improvement against "soft" pitches -- curveballs, sliders and changeups. Take a look at his slugging percentage by location against soft stuff during his down 2011, and then this season. Ethier didn't make loud contact against breaking and off-speed pitches last year unless the pitcher left it right down the middle of the plate. This year, he's killing anything in the zone:

Ethier's slugging percentage by location vs. soft stuff, 2011

Ethier's slugging percentage by location vs. soft stuff, 2012

Ethier slugged .366 against soft stuff in 2011, well below the .391 average for qualified hitters. In 2012, however, his .560 slugging percentage versus soft stuff ranks in the top 20 among MLB hitters:

Highest slugging percentage against soft stuff, 2012

Batter	Slugging Pct.
Josh Hamilton	.712
Matt Holliday	.643
Mark Trumbo	.630
Joey Votto	.625
Mike Stanton	.620
Ryan Braun	.602
Michael Cuddyer	.602
Carlos Gonzalez	.592
Adam Jones	.591
Dayan Viciedo	.591
Bryan LaHair	.589
Josh Reddick	.588
Kyle Seager	.576
Prince Fielder	.574
A. J. Pierzynski	.571
Robinson Cano	.570
Andre Ethier	.560
Jed Lowrie	.553
Mark Teixeira	.549
Matt Wieters	.547

While Ethier's power has returned following a tepid 2011 season, recent history suggests that the Dodgers might end up paying their right fielder superstar money for mediocre offensive production. 

Ethier has a 129 OPS+ in 1,388 plate appearances from age 28 to 30 so far. Per Baseball-Reference, seven other corner outfielders (Shawn Green, Trot Nixon, Brad Hawpe, Pat Burrell, Ryan Ludwick, Jayson Werth, Luke Scott) put up similar lines to Ethier at the same age over the past decade, with an age 28-30 OPS+ between 125 and 135.

Their collective OPS+ at age 31 was 117. It dropped to 103 at age 32 and 99 at age 33. Green, Nixon and Burrell retired before age 35. And while Hawpe, Ludwick, Werth and Scott are still active, Werth looks like the only guy assured a roster spot by his mid-30s.Considering that Ethier derives all of his value from his bat (he has been five runs below average per 150 defensive games played in the outfield, according to Ultimate Zone Rating), that list of comps is troubling.

L.A. has deeper coffers with Magic and company now in the owner's box, but the Dodgers might have been better served by using the cash infusion to chase other free agent outfielders like B.J. Upton, Michael Bourn or Shane Victorino (if not Josh Hamilton), going after an ace like Cole Hamels or Zack Greinke, or locking up their own ace, Clayton Kershaw, for the long term. Ethier's deal might not preclude such spending, but he'll have to buck history to avoid become a drag on the payroll.

Andre Ethier's Power Outage

From 2008-2010, Andre Ethier established himself as one of the better power hitters in the National League. The Dodgers outfielder clubbed an average of about 25 home runs per season, slugging .504 in the process. But as L.A. languishes in 15th place among NL clubs in run scoring this year, Ethier has gone deep just 10 times while slugging .416. The lefty hasn't hit a homer since July 25, a stretch of 88 at-bats.

A major reason for Ethier's power outage is that he's not driving pitches thrown inside and at the knees like he usually does. From '08 to '10, he golfed low-and-inside pitches for extra bases:

Ethier's in-play slugging percentage by pitch location, 2008-2010 Ethier slugged .469 against pitches thrown low and inside over that three-year stretch, besting the .343 league average for lefties by a considerable margin. But in 2011, that hot spot has disappeared:

Ethier's in-play slugging percentage by pitch location, 2011He's slugging a paltry .188 against low-and-inside offerings, without a single homer hit on a pitch thrown in that location.  

The Dodgers have a difficult decision to make with Ethier after this season. The 29-year-old is pulling down $9.25 million this year, and he's got one year of arbitration eligibility remaining before he hits free agency after 2012. Even with a tepid season so far, Ethier will easily make eight figures in 2012 should he go to arbitration.

If the Dodgers think his power will recover, then Ethier is likely worth the cash. If not, the cash-strapped club might choose to let someone else pay for a lumbering corner outfielder with mid-range pop.