Looking When it Counts
David Pinto | Wednesday, September 21, 2011 at 8:19PM White there are plenty of selective hitters in Major League Baseball, there is one count in which batters need to take with certainty, 3-2. Take a ball and in that count and win a free pass to first base, take a strike and walk back to the dugout. During the last four seasons, 101 players took at least 100 pitches on a 3-2 count. The following table shows the hitters who took the highest percentage of walks, or taking ball four:
| Batter | Strikeout % | Walk % |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Pujols | 9.4% | 90.6% |
| Brian Roberts | 8.5% | 90.6% |
| Dustin Pedroia | 8.7% | 90.4% |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 9.9% | 90.1% |
| Joey Votto | 11.0% | 89.0% |
| Miguel Cabrera | 10.3% | 89.0% |
| David Ortiz | 11.0% | 88.4% |
| Derek Jeter | 11.4% | 87.9% |
| Luke Scott | 11.4% | 87.6% |
| Andrew McCutchen | 12.5% | 87.5% |
I'm not surprised that sluggers like Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez and Joey Votto are near the top of the list. Often, pitchers will work carefully to these batters, since throwing the a strike might result in a home run. It's better to try to get them to chase an outside pitch, but these sluggers have an excellent eye for the strike zone.
Note that along with the sluggers are table setters like Dustin Pedroia and Derek Jeter. Their ability to work the count and draw walks makes them so valuable at the top of the order. You may also notice that the Red Sox stock up on players with great strikeout judgement, as three of these hitters currently reisde in Boston.
At the other end of the spectrum are the hitters who strike out quite often.
| Batter | Strikeout % | Walk % |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Stubbs | 28.4% | 70.6% |
| Andruw Jones | 26.2% | 73.8% |
| Mike Cameron | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 23.8% | 76.2% |
| Jack Cust | 22.1% | 77.9% |
| Jorge Posada | 22.0% | 77.1% |
| B. J. Upton | 21.7% | 77.9% |
| David DeJesus | 21.6% | 78.4% |
| Hanley Ramirez | 21.6% | 77.8% |
| Dexter Fowler | 21.6% | 77.6% |
Note that there are a number of good, or formerly good hitters in this list. Jorge Posada saw his hitting prowess fade this season, but he still reached base at a good clip the last few years. Troy Tulowitzki rates as the outstanding hitting shortstop in the majors, and Hanley Ramirez held that distinction in previous seasons. With the exception of B.J. Upton, these are players that are very good, but have more flaws that the group at the top. It seems that the willingness to take on 3-2 indicates a selective hitter, regardless of how well the 3-2 looks turns out.
