The 2011 200-hitsters

I've been curious about the players who have picked up at least 200 hits this season, who I refer to as "200-hitsters."

Here's a look at them through action on Sept. 26.

Rk	Player	H	Tm	G	HR	RBI	BA
1	Adrian Gonzalez	211	BOS	157	27	117	.338
2	Jacoby Ellsbury	210	BOS	156	31	103	.323
3	Michael Young	210	TEX	157	11	105	.338
4	Starlin Castro	204	CHC	156	10	65	.306
5	Melky Cabrera	201	KCR	155	18	87	.305

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/27/2011.

Interesting group, don't you think?

Adrian Gonzalez and Starlin Castro lead their leagues in hits. Matt Kemp of the Dodgers has 192 hits for second place in the NL.

Let's take a look at the heat maps for each of these players and see what we see.

Adrian Gonzalez

114 of Gonzo's hits have been off of fastballsGonzo strength has been on the outside of the plate where he has produced 74 hits. However, as his shoulder has weakened so has his ability to drive balls pitched to him on the outside. Since August 1, he has only 17 hits on outside pitches and only nine off of fastballs.

Jacoby Ellsbury

Ellsbury has 109 hits off fastballsYou can see that Jacoby has loved the inside quadrant all season long, but since August 1st, he has expanded his zone.

Since August1, Ellsbury has 71 hits including 14 homers

Michael Young

106 of Michael's hits have come on fastballsMichael Young has been killer this season on every thing middle in. If the Rangers make the World Series, I will be fascinated watching Cliff Lee and Doc Halladay paint that low and outside corner where Young has only eight hits this season.

Starlin Castro

Castro has 85 hits on fastballs and 40 on slidersCastro has been remarkably consistent hitting .307 before the All-Star break and .305 since. it's not as obvious, but middle down has produced 161 of his hits

Melky Cabrera

The switch-hitting Melky has 63 hits from the right side of the plate, 34 off of fastballsCabrera has 138 hits as a lefty with 65 coming off fastballsThe Melk Man hit .293 before the All Star break and has hit .322 with 89 hits since. Cabrera never had more than 149 hits in a season prior to 2011.

The five 200-hitsters are the most since we had eight in 2006 and 2007.

Jacoby Ellsbury Tater Tidbits

 With three more clouts yesterday, Jacoby Ellsbury has now hit more home runs during the 2011 season (31) than he hit in the minor and major leagues combined from 2005-2010 (30). Here are some tidbits on Ellsbury's tater binge this year.

- Ellsbury has hit 12 homers apiece in hitter's and pitcher's counts, and seven in even counts.

- The lefty hitter is the anti-Adrian Gonzalez, pulling 25 of his homers to right field, going deep to center four times and going the opposite way twice.

- Ellsbury is doing almost all of his damage on pitches below the letters. Just one home run has been on a pitch located high in the strike zone, compared to 21 on pitches located in the middle and nine thrown low:

Pitch location of Ellsbury's HRs, 2011

- Thirty of his dingers have been on pitches located within the strike zone.

- Fifteen of Ellsbury's homers have come at Fenway, and 16 have come on the road.

- Right-handed pitchers have been victimized 26 times, and leties five times.

- Here's a breakdown of how many homers Ellsbury has hit aganst each pitch type:

21 fastballs/sinkers

5 changeups/splitters

5 sliders/cutters

- Ellsbury has saved his most prodigious slugging for September, averaging a season-best 393 feet on his seven homers this month. He averaged 375 feet on his round-trippers from April-August.

 - Ellsbury's 31 shots place him fifth all-time among Red Sox center fielders, according to Baseball-Reference. Here's the rest of the top five:

1. Tony Armas, 43 (1984)

2. Fred Lynn, 39 (1979)

3. Armas, 36 (1983)

4. Carl Everett, 34 (2000)

5. Ellsbury, 31 (2011)

- Measured by OPS+, Ellsbury's big homer season (146 OPS+) ranks ahead of those of Armas (85 in '83, 121 in '84) and Everett (135), but well behind Lynn (176).

Looking When it Counts

White there are plenty of selective hitters in Major League Baseball, there is one count in which batters need to take with certainty, 3-2.  Take a ball and in that count and win a free pass to first base, take a strike and walk back to the dugout.  During the last four seasons, 101 players took at least 100 pitches on a 3-2 count.  The following table shows the hitters who took the highest percentage of walks, or taking ball four:

Batter	Strikeout %	Walk %
Albert Pujols	9.4%	90.6%
Brian Roberts	8.5%	90.6%
Dustin Pedroia	8.7%	90.4%
Adrian Gonzalez	9.9%	90.1%
Joey Votto	11.0%	89.0%
Miguel Cabrera	10.3%	89.0%
David Ortiz	11.0%	88.4%
Derek Jeter	11.4%	87.9%
Luke Scott	11.4%	87.6%
Andrew McCutchen	12.5%	87.5%

I'm not surprised that sluggers like Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez and Joey Votto are near the top of the list.  Often, pitchers will work carefully to these batters, since throwing the a strike might result in a home run.  It's better to try to get them to chase an outside pitch, but these sluggers have an excellent eye for the strike zone.

Note that along with the sluggers are table setters like Dustin Pedroia and Derek Jeter. Their ability to work the count and draw walks makes them so valuable at the top of the order.  You may also notice that the Red Sox stock up on players with great strikeout judgement, as three of these hitters currently reisde in Boston.

At the other end of the spectrum are the hitters who strike out quite often.

Batter	Strikeout %	Walk %
Drew Stubbs	28.4%	70.6%
Andruw Jones	26.2%	73.8%
Mike Cameron	25.0%	75.0%
Troy Tulowitzki	23.8%	76.2%
Jack Cust	22.1%	77.9%
Jorge Posada	22.0%	77.1%
B. J. Upton	21.7%	77.9%
David DeJesus	21.6%	78.4%
Hanley Ramirez	21.6%	77.8%
Dexter Fowler	21.6%	77.6%

Note that there are a number of good, or formerly good hitters in this list.  Jorge Posada saw his hitting prowess fade this season, but he still reached base at a good clip the last few years.  Troy Tulowitzki rates as the outstanding hitting shortstop in the majors, and Hanley Ramirez held that distinction in previous seasons.  With the exception of B.J. Upton, these are players that are very good, but have more flaws that the group at the top.  It seems that the willingness to take on 3-2 indicates a selective hitter, regardless of how well the 3-2 looks turns out.