Dunn Against Lefties?

As a follow up to Bill Chuck's previous post on Adam Dunn of the Chicago White Sox, a reader asked to look at his struggles against lefties.  There are two major changes that help account for his poor performance.

Pitchers are attacking Dunn more when the count favors the hurler.  From 2008-2010,  Dunn tended to see pitches away when he was at a disadvantage:

Adam Dunn versus left-handed pitchers, count favoring the pitcher, 2008-2010.Now they are busting him inside.

Adam Dunn versus left-handed pitchers, count favoring the pitcher, 2011.From 2008-2010 Dunn hit .159/.177/.270 in that situation for a wOBA of .194.  This season, he's hitting .000 across the board.

The second change is one that might explain why pitchers are willing to pitch him inside.

Adam Dunn fly ball distance

Pitcher handedness	2008-2010	2011
Right handed	343	328
Left handed	337	320

Adam can't hit the ball that far any more.  There may be many reasons for his, but since his distance dropped against both right-handed and left-handed pitchers, it may be Adam more than the way he's being pitched.  Given that opponents are more likely to pitch him inside, it seems Adam lost some bat speed.  Maybe a lighter bat will help, but it could also be that at age 31, like Pat Burrell, he physically lost part of his ability to hit.

Adam Dunn's 100 strikeouts

It's hard to believe that in 67 games, 279 plate appearances, 231 at bats, Adam Dunn of the White Sox has 100 strikeouts. For the second time this season, Dunn now has multiple strikeouts in six consecutive games. he's even had 11 games this season with at least three strikeouts. Not that they are comparable, but I was curious as to how many games Joe DiMaggio struck out three times in his career and that would be one. He struck out three times June 19, 1942 against Cleveland. That was the only time in the 1736 games he played.

Here are some very distressingly red images of Adam Dunn this season.

Of Dunn's 100 strikeouts, 27 have been called third strikes:

27 called third strikesDunn has struck out 25 times against lefties, 18 have been swinging strikeouts:

18 swinging strike outs against lefitesAgainst righties, Dunn has swung and missed at strike three 55 times:

There is a little diversity here in his swinging strikeouts against rightiesDunn has been simply atrocious this season against lefties, going 1-for-53 (.019) and that one hit was an infield single.

Dunn vs. lefties:

In 63 plate appearances this season, Dunn against lefties has one single and nine walksDunn has seen 295 pitches against lefites, he has swung at 41% of them, he has missed on 34.7%. his BABIP is .036.

Remarkably, despite Dunn's season thus far, one in which his presence in the lineup was to be heavily relied upon, the White Sox are just 4.5 games out of first. It will be interesting to see what, if any, adjustment can be made for Dunn over the coming weeks.

Adam Dunn and Pitch Velocity

Over at SBNation, Rob Neyer takes a look at a few questions facing the Chicago White Sox going into this season.  He noted that the acquisition of Adam Dunn fills a big hole at DH for the Sox.  Dunn is a tremendous power hitter who strikes out a ton, but when he makes contact, he can put the ball in orbit.  His 35.7% K-rate was the second worst in the majors last year, while his .536 slugging percentage was 10th best.

Dunn, like many left handed power hitters, does well against fastballs.

Adam Dunn, 2008-10

Over the last 3 years, Dunn's contact rate against fastballs was 19.7% better than against off-speed pitches.  As indicated above, Dunn's swing rate increases against pitches with more velocity.  And his contact and slugging percentage follow.  That's a sign of a hitter who knows what he likes, and a good sign for the Chicago White Sox.