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Entries in 2013 World Series Projections (2)

Friday
Oct112013

Getting ahead on the Count is the Key to LCS

Here is a very quick and simplistic key to success in the two League Championship Series: Get ahead on the count.

Take a look at the 2013 Postseason numbers for the final four

Here's the overall batting numbers to date
Postseason Batting for the Final Four Teams
GPAAVGOBPSLUGOPSK%BB%HR%WHAV
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD)4156.333.390.572.96222.4%7.7%5.1%.218
2. Boston Red Sox (BOS)4160.286.390.414.80320.6%12.5%1.5%.191
3. Detroit Tigers (DET)5178.235.299.321.62021.3%7.3%1.9%.117
4. St. Louis Cardinals (STL)5179.209.294.354.64817.3%9.5%3.8%.188

Now take a look at these teams numbers in hitter's counts:
Postseason Batting for the Final Four Teams on Hitter's Counts
GPAAVGOBPSLUGOPSK%BB%HR%WHAV
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD)424.611.667.7221.3890.0%20.8%0.0%.474
2. Boston Red Sox (BOS)440.423.615.8081.4230.0%30.0%7.7%.519
3. Detroit Tigers (DET)541.333.500.467.9670.0%22.0%3.3%.161
4. St. Louis Cardinals (STL)543.278.395.500.8950.0%16.3%5.6%.306


Now, check out the difference when these batters are facing pitcher's counts.
Postseason Batting for the Final Four Teams on Pitcher's Counts
GPAAVGOBPSLUGOPSK%BB%HR%WHAV
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD)479.269.269.526.79541.8%0.0%6.4%.114
2. St. Louis Cardinals (STL)586.205.224.337.56131.4%0.0%3.6%.131
3. Boston Red Sox (BOS)466.203.212.266.47840.9%0.0%0.0%.092
4. Detroit Tigers (DET)581.150.160.250.41042.0%0.0%2.5%.100

Here's the other side - Pitchers Numbers for the LCS


Postseason Pitching for the Final Four Teams
GPAAVGOBPSLUGOPSK%BB%HR%WHAV
1. St. Louis Cardinals (STL)5172.201.269.312.58123.3%8.1%2.6%.178
2. Detroit Tigers (DET)5183.217.280.380.66031.1%7.7%3.0%.190
3. Boston Red Sox (BOS)4143.225.294.372.66623.1%7.7%3.1%.209
4. Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD)4147.214.290.275.56428.6%9.5%0.8%.159

Here's how the pitchers fare when they are behind on the count.
Postseason Pitching for the Final Four Teams: Hitters Counts
GPAAVGOBPSLUGOPSK%BB%HR%WHAV
1. St. Louis Cardinals (STL)539.367.487.6001.0870.0%20.5%6.7%.323
2. Detroit Tigers (DET)537.286.432.536.9680.0%21.6%3.6%.345
3. Boston Red Sox (BOS)429.440.517.7601.2770.0%13.8%4.0%.400
4. Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD)427.182.333.227.5610.0%18.5%0.0%.273

Now, take a look at how effective these pitchers are when they are ahead on the count.
Postseason Pitching for the Final Four Teams: Hitters Counts
GPAAVGOBPSLUGOPSK%BB%HR%WHAV
1. Detroit Tigers (DET)5100.163.172.306.47849.0%0.0%3.1%.121
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD)475.203.203.270.47345.3%0.0%1.4%.122
3. St. Louis Cardinals (STL)570.100.100.143.24347.1%0.0%1.4%.086
4. Boston Red Sox (BOS)470.132.143.221.36342.9%0.0%2.9%.132

These are the four best teams, but only two will move on


These numbers show a key as to who will thrive and who won't survive. It's not the only key to these two LCS, but it is one you can count on and one you can track very easily.
Wednesday
Dec262012

UPDATE: Who is your 2013 World Series Champion?