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Wednesday
May012013

Pitching was reason for the Red Sox great April

At 18-8 (.692), the Red Sox have the best record in baseball, off to its best start since beginning the 2002 season with a 19-7 record.

Their first John Farrell managed month is certainly better than their first Bobby Valentine 11-11 managed month last year.

The last two times the Sox held MLB’s best record at the start of May were in 2004 (15-6, .714) and in 2007 (16-8, .667). If those years are not familiar to you, just ask any citizen of Red Sox Nation who will remind you that those years Terry Francona's club went on to win the World Series.

A huge reason for this early success belongs to Boston's pitching

The Sox have scored 135 runs and allowed just 97. That 38 run differential is the best in baseball. The Rangers have a +32 and the Braves are +31. For some perspectives the preseason favorite Blue Jays are at -33 and the Angels are -28.

While the Sox bats have been steadily batting the ball around the ballpark, it's the starting pitching that has excelled. The Sox starters have a 3.24 ERA, fourth best in the majors. The Cardinal starters have a spectacular 2.15 ERA, the Reds are a 2.95, the Rangers are at 3.15, and the Tigers are at 3.18. On the other hand, the Astros are at 6.08, Padres at 5.48, and the Angels at 5.32. The  Sox starters’ 15-4 record (.789) is the best in baseball.

The Rangers and Cubs starters are holding batters to a .220 average, but the Sox are close behind at .224.

The Sox starters lead the majors averaging 9.66 strikeouts per nine innings. The Twins starters are only at 4.37.

Clay Buchholz has been the ace thus far winning all five of his starts and his 1.19 ERA (five earned runs in 37.2 IP) ranks third in baseball trailing only Jake Westbrook's sick 0.98 and Matt Moore's 1.13. It's the lowest by a Red Sox through the first five starts since Roger Clemens in 1991 (0.66).

The WHIP and ERA of Red Sox starters

If you really want to see how the Sox starters stand alone, check out this chart:

Red Sox pitchers lead the majors in double-digit strikeout games

Rk Tm #Matching W L
1 BOS 16 12 4
         
2 DET 13 9 4
         
3 CIN 11 8 3
         
4 LAD 10 7 3
         
5 STL 9 6 3
         
6 TEX 8 7 1
7 SFG 8 4 4
8 PIT 8 6 2
9 ARI 8 6 2
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/1/2013.

The Bullpen

The Red Sox bullpen reputedly may be in the top three in baseball, but you wouldn't know it from their ERA which is 4.33, 22nd in baseball (Atlanta's pen has a 2.01 ERA). The bullpen has a 3-4 record and have completed 8-of-13 save opportunities. The Diamondback's pen is 8-3 but has only completed 8-of-16 save opportunities. The Rangers pen is 5-1 and 9-for-9 in saves. The Braves relievers are 6-1 and have succeeded on nine-of-10 save opportunities.

When it comes to relievers, I'm a fan of WHIP as a measuring device.

Red Sox Reliever Games/WHIP

Another critical measurement for relievers is the "tax stat," IRS, Inherited Runs Scored

  IP GR IR IS IS%
Alfredo Aceves 17.2 2 2 1 50%
Andrew Bailey 12.1 13 2 0 0%
Daniel Bard 1.0 2 0 0  
Joel Hanrahan 5.2 7 0 0  
Andrew Miller* 5.2 10 3 0 0%
Clayton Mortensen 10.2 8 0 0  
Junichi Tazawa 12.2 13 9 1 11%
Koji Uehara 10.2 12 7 2 29%
Alex Wilson 6.0 6 3 1 33%
Steven Wright 3.2 1 1 0 0%
League Average         32%
Team Total   74 27 5 19%
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/1/2013. 

For the Red Sox, so far, so good

There are many months, and many games to go this season and it is impossible to predict who will stay healthy, who will get injured, who will get hot, or who will get cold. However, April is in the books, and this season, so far, there are no complaints from Red Sox Nation.

Tuesday
Apr302013

Putting the First Inning First

We have been frequently told that you need to get to good pitchers early.

We've also been told how important it is to get off to a good start.

When you follow baseball, you get told a lot of things.

So I decided to I'd a little investigating by putting the 1st inning first.

Mike Minor of Atlanta is our major winner in this category. Minor has faced 15 batters in five 1st inning starts.

A.J. Griffin, Derek Holland, and Homer Bailey have each faced just 16 in five starts.

The two pitchers who have faced the most 1st inning batters this season are Bud Norris and Stephen Strasburg, with 33 each. They've each had six starts, but right behind them is Philip Humber who has faced 32 batters in five starts.

Obviously, Minor has a perfect .000 batting average against, but then again so does Wily Peralta whose faced 18 batters in five starts without giving up a hit.

Humber has been ugly in the 1st with batters hitting a whopping .552 against him.

Wade LeBlanc has been hit at a .536 pace, and it may surprise you to find out that batters are hitting Hiroki Kuroda at a .500 pace in the 1st.

In six games, Bud Norris has thrown 145 pitches in the 1st inning (24.1 ppi). Juan Nicasio and Edwin Jackson have each tossed 126 pitches in five 1st innings (25.2 ppi).

On the good side are Carlos Villanueva (57 pitches), A.J. Griffin (59), Clay Buchholz (60), and Mike Minor (61).

Minor and Peralta have allowed no 1st inning hits and Griffin, Derek Holland, Jason Vargas, Marcos Estrada, and Roberto Hernandez have allowed just one hit each.

Humber has amazingly allowed 16 hits, Wade LeBlanc has permitted 15, Kuroda has permitted 12 hits, and Strasburg, Vance Worley, Mike Pelfrey, and Jeff Francis have allowed 11 hits each.

While there are many pitchers who have not yet permitted a 1st inning homer, it should be noted that in six games CC Sabathia has allowed three, and in five games, Jason Marquis has also allowed three.

Felix Hernandez has struck out 11 batters in six 1st innings.

Jon Neise has struck out none in six starts and Miguel Gonzalez none in five.

Bud Norris has issued seven walks in six starts and Edwin Jackson has issued six walks in five starts.

Contemplating all this data, I would say that undoubtedly Mike Minor is baseball's best 1st inning pitcher so far this season, retiring all the batters he's faced.

And, Phillip Humber so far is baseball's worst allowing 14 runs (all earned) giving him an ERA of 29.08 and a WHIP of 4.385.

Monday
Apr292013

How bad is the Astros bullpen? How good are the Braves relievers?

Throughout the season, I like to look at trends that may explain team's success and failure.

Clearly, teams need effective bullpens to win, certainly they need them to be competitive. But as good a bullpen might be, you don't want them in the game. The longer a team can go with their starter, the better that team will do throughout the season.

Here's what I mean

 

When you mouse over the team icons, you can see how porous the Astros bullpen has been and how much they are used. They have allowed 62 runs already this season.  

Compare their numbers to the magnificent Braves 'pen that has only allowed 17 runs this season.

Tampa relievers have been used less than any other group only tossing 2.28 IP per game.

The fact that the Cardinals bullpen have surrendered 45 runs, the same as the Marlins is a number that stands out.

The 3.72 IP/G tossed by the Pirates bullpen is something to be noted as well as only the Astros at 4.03 have been stretched further.

2012 - Frame of reference

The Rockies certainly have to be pleased with their start compared to last season, but the Reds certainly are not as lights out as last season

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