Conor's Eye for the Corner

Conor Jackson was riding high coming out of the 2008 season.  He was in his prime at age 26 and posted a .300/.376/.446 slash line, with his BA and OBP setting career highs.  Illness and injury set him back the last two seasons, however.  His .218/.313/.303 line since the start of 2009 won't impress anyone.  Now with the Oakland Athletics, a return to health might mean a return to great hitting.

There is a change in Jackson that might help him crack the starting lineup.  Through his illness, his batting eye improved.  In 2008, look where he swung and took the most:

Conor Jackson, pitch frequency on swings, 2008Conor Jackson, pitch frequency taking pitches, 2008Conor likes to swing at pitches up in the strike zone.  Although not shown here, he tends to swing at pitches that drop less than expected, and takes pitches that drop more than expected.  That remained true in 2009-2010, but he started laying off pitches on the low outside corner in the strike zone.

Conor Jackson, pitch frequency on swings, 2009-2010Conor Jackson, pitch frequency taking pitches, 2009-2010He's more willing to go after low pitches, and he's taking fewer in the zone.  Better strike zone judgment means more walks, and maybe more calls his way.

On the other hand, it could be he doesn't hit the low, outside pitch all that well, and he's better off waiting for something up higher.  We'll see.  The Athletics are big on process, and someone who takes a ball and swings at a strike should do well in their system.

Andy Pettitte Battling

With the retirement of lefty pitcher Andy Pettitte, the Yankees will be down a solid starter for the 2011 season. Pettitte developed a reputation as a "battler", fighting in and out of jams towards the end of his second stint with the Yankees. It's possible this view is simply a matter of selective memory. However, a quick look at some of his numbers suggests he was a better pitcher when he had his back against the wall.

Andy Pettitte 2008-10

	PA	BB%	K%	Cntct%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Overall	2422	7.5%	18.2%	80.3%	.268	.322	.403	.326
Men On Base	1027	9.0%	17.6%	78.4%	.281	.342	.426	.350
→ w/ No Outs	246	5.7%	16.7%	84.3%	.284	.305	.394	.329
RISP	564	10.3%	18.4%	77.4%	.275	.340	.418	.351
→ w/ No Outs	109	4.6%	8.3%	89.5%	.341	.330	.459	.377
Loaded	53	7.5%	24.5%	71.0%	.178	.245	.289	.251
→ w/ No Outs	6	0.0%	16.7%	100.0%	.000	.000	.000	.000

Pettitte wasn't doing anything special with runners in scoring position. However, with the bases loaded, his K-rate jumped 6% while managing a greater rate of swings and misses. Since 2008, in the 6 plate appearances in which he faced a bases loaded, no outs situation, Pettitte yielded no hits, no walks, and struck out one batter looking (Kendry Morales on September 10, 2008).

When he had his back to the wall, Andy Pettitte was at his best. The Yankees will surely miss that toughness this year.

Adjusting to McLouth

Nate McLouth saw a huge falloff in his OBP in 2010.  He came into the season with a .342 career OBP, but finished the year with a poor .298 mark.  The falloff was almost completely due to his hitting; he still walked a decent amount during the season.

What happened?  Note that during the 2008-2009 seasons McLouth showed great plate coverage.  He could knock out hits inside, outside, as well as down the middle:

Nate McLouth in play batting average, 2008-2009

Nate tended to hit well inside, so pitchers worked him away:

Nate McLouth, pitch frequency, 2008-2009

In 2010, cold spots appeared in his strike zone:

Nate McLouth, in play batting average, 2010With that, pitchers worked him over the plate more.

Nate McLouth, pitch frequency, 2010That last graph is interesting for another reason.  The software that produces it can show a time lapse image.  When you watch it change over the 2010 season, the distribution starts out very much like the 2008-2009 image above.  As it becomes apparent that Nate has a hole on near the outside edge of the plate, the league brings the pitches in to challenge him there, rather than trying to get him to swing at ball off the outside edge.  The league noticed the problem and adjusted to the batter's weakness, and McLouth did not find a way to adjust back.