White Sox Beckham Looking to Regain Form

The White Sox are very much hoping that Gordon Beckham can bounce back from a below average 2010 and regain the offense from his 2009 season, when he finished 5th in Rookie of the Year voting.

Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune notes that a sore right shoulder probably contributed to his suppressed numbers. Beckham also suffered a bruised right hand at the end of September, essentially ending his sophomore season prematurely. However, fully healthy going into spring training, the White Sox will be eager to see how he starts the 2011 season.

Beckham’s power saw a noticeable dropoff last season, falling from a .442 slugging percentage to .367.

Gordon Beckham, 2009 Gordon Beckham, 2010 Looking at Beckham’s contact rates, we see he had trouble hitting the outside pitch in his second season. Gordon Beckham, 2009 Gordon Beckham, 2010 As Gonzales notes, Beckham wasn’t getting as many opposite field hits in 2010. In the selected zone above, his contact rate dropped to 73.8%, about 4% less than in 2009. This likely contributed to fewer hits to right last season. If his shoulder and hand injuries are fully behind him, look for Beckham to make better contact on pitches away in 2011, and perhaps boost his power numbers overall.

Damon's Doughnut

Johnny Damon saw a large falloff in his slugging percentage in 2010.  The previous two seasons he posted a .461 mark, but that dropped to .401 last season.  What happened?

Johnny's best slugging areas are a bit doughnut shaped.  The following heat map shows his hot slugging zones for 2008 and 2009 combined:

Johnny Damon slugging, 2008-2009Notice the hole in the top outer quadrant of Damon's strike zone.  He slugs around the hole, with most of his power in the middle of the zone, but some up and outside.  In 2010, that doughnut shifted.

Johnny Damon slugging 2010The doughnut hole moved right into the middle of the strike zone, and the dougnut itself became less dense.  Damon could no longer connect on what should be the easiest pitches to hit.  Note that the move to Comerica Park didn't make the difference, as Johnny's poor slugging came mostly on the road.  The doughnut was in the middle of the plate in both places, however.

I suspect Damon lost some bat speed.  That would make it more difficult to catch up to pitches over the middle of the plate.  He could, however, reach the lower pitches, as he would have a bit more time to get there. 

Through his career, Damon played the role of table setter with some power.  As he ages, he'll be more dependent on his selectivity to get on base, and will need to leave the power hitting to others.

The Red Sox Lineup Vs. LHP

Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald recently wrote about the Red Sox dilemma regarding their lefty dominated lineup.

Two lefty Red Sox hitters in particular have had a tough time against LHP. New acquisition Carl Crawford has posted a wOBA 80 points lower against lefties than righties over the past 3 years. He’s also reached base at a much lower clip against southpaws (.304 vs. 368 OBP). Similarly, David Ortiz’s .296 wOBA versus lefties since 2008 (102 points lower than versus RHP) is concerning.

As for the rest of the hitters likely to see some significant playing time:

Red Sox Batters vs. LHP since 2008

	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Kevin Youkilis	.332	.447	.628	.461
Mike Cameron	.289	.418	.560	.424
Jed Lowrie	.316	.398	.525	.403
Darnell McDonald	.312	.364	.473	.374
Dustin Pedroia	.285	.370	.452	.370
Jason Varitek	.250	.346	.483	.363
Adrian Gonzalez	.258	.347	.436	.350
J.D. Drew	.247	.357	.414	.348
Marco Scutaro	.275	.357	.410	.348
Jacoby Ellsbury	.303	.349	.389	.337
Carl Crawford	.254	.304	.366	.302
David Ortiz	.213	.290	.373	.296
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	.199	.261	.315	.260

More than likely, David Ortiz will see very little starting time at DH against any left-handed starters. Similarly, Francona will probably attempt to rest Saltalamacchia versus lefties, starting Varitek (a better hitter from the right side) in his place. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lowrie occasionally starting at shortstop versus LHP in place of Scutaro, who has hit lefties only slightly better than righties in his career. Francona could even deploy Lowrie at third against LHP, allowing Youkilis a half day off at DH.

Silverman mentioned that Jacoby Ellsbury has hit left-handed pitching better than right-handed pitching in his career, and is thus a better option to leadoff versus lefties. However, his numbers versus RHP aren’t exactly eye-popping to begin with (.277/.329/.400). As good a stolen base threat that Ellsbury is, the old saying “you can’t steal first base” says it all. He’s a better bet to be anchoring a Red Sox lineup that contains far better hitters.

Obviously, Francona won’t bench Carl Crawford whenever the Red Sox face a left-handed starter, although he’s likely to get his days off against one from time to time. Given Mike Cameron’s great success versus LHP, it makes more sense to deploy a Crawford-Cameron-Drew/McDonald OF, with Pedroia the best option to lead-off. And should we see Lowrie getting a spot start against a lefty, don’t be surprised to see him leading off, with Pedroia, Youkilis, Gonzalez, and Cameron rounding out the top half of the lineup.