Chasing Pitches

Chase Percentage Ranking through April 16

No surprise that Vlad Guerrero (BAL) tops the list for highest percent of swings on pitches out of the strike zone. Even the greater than 15% gap between Vlad and Trumbo in second should not come as a shock to anyone who's seen at least a handful of the slugger's ABs. However, over the last three years, Vlad has averaged around a 44% swing percentage on pitches out of the zone. So, as the season progresses, expect him to rein it in a little.

WOBA Ranking on pitches out of the Strike Zone through April 16

None of the players in the top 10 in chase percentage made the top 10 in wOBA on pitches out of the zone. In fact, none appeared in the top 50, and only Pablo Sandoval (SF) made the top 100 at #87.

Things Looking up for Gomes

Jonny Gomes is off to a great start in 2011.  He's showing selectivity and power at the plate, ranking among the league leaders in walks and home runs.  His home run rate should cause him to eclipse his previous season high of 21.

Gomes's selectivity isn't so much strike zone judgement as it is pitch judgement.  Great hitters talk about getting one good pitch per plate appearance, and that's the one they want to attack.  In the past, Gomes swung at most pitches in the strike zone:

Jonny Gomes, swings, 2008-2010.Although he swung at strikes, his power zones were limited:

Jonny Gomes slugging, 2008-2010.This season, Gomes seems to be looking for pitches up in the zone:

Jonny Gomes swings, 2011.That turns out to be a great place to power the ball:

Jonny Gomes, slugging 2011.By selecting pitches he can hit hard, Gomes increases his slugging percentage.  That also helps his walks in two ways.  Pitchers are more careful throwing to him, and umpires see that Gomes defines his own strike zone well.  If he can keep this up, Gomes could have a monster year.

Alexei Ramirez Adjustments

The heat maps Baseball Analytics produces give a nice view of how pitchers and batters adjust to each other.  Alexei Ramirez provides a good example of this in 2011.  During his first three years in the majors, pitchers tended to avoid the inside part of the plate against him, but used most of the strike zone:

Alexei Ramirez, pitch frequency, 2008-2010.

His power tended to be down and middle in.

Alexei Ramirez, slugging, 2008-2010.

In 2010, pitchers worked him away much more:

Alexei Ramirez, pitch frequency, 2010 only.As the pitches moved away from Alexi, he moved his power with them:

Alexei Ramirez, slugging, 2010.So far in 2011, pitchers have worked him even further away:

Alexei Ramirez, pitch frequency, 2011.Once again, Alexei moved his power with them:

Alexei Ramirez, slugging, 2011.Of course, this early in the season, those might just be a couple of lucky hits.  So far in his career, however, Ramirez showed he can adjust to changes in the way pitchers work the strike zone, and turn a perceived weakness into a strength.