Can Jonathan Broxton Bounce Back?

Kevin Kennedy thinks Jonathan Broxton's pitching problems last season could be attributed to mental issues rather than anything physical.  Here's a comparison of his last two seasons:

Jonathan Broxton - 2009

	P	Vel	PVX	PVZ	Miss%	K%	HR%	BABIP	wOBA
Fastball	896	97.5	1.1	-11.7	24.3%	31.5%	1.8%	.250	.253
Slider	255	88.1	5.1	-16.4	49.4%	53.7%	0.0%	.278	.128
Totals	1225	95.2	2.0	-12.8	31.4%	38.0%	1.5%	.263	.225

Jonathan Broxton - 2010

	P	Vel	PVX	PVZ	Miss%	K%	HR%	BABIP	wOBA
Fastball	808	95.3	1.8	-12.4	23.7%	23.2%	1.2%	.356	.321
Slider	246	87.0	5.2	-17.2	32.4%	37.0%	2.8%	.429	.309
Totals	1091	93.0	2.6	-13.5	26.2%	26.9%	1.7%	.373	.322

Broxton's fastball lost more than two miles per hour of velocity in 2010, and his slider lost more than one mile per hour. Perhaps a mental component played a part, but when a pitcher loses a significant amount of velocity on his two main pitches in one season, it points more towards a physical problem more than anything else.

Broxton's slider had the worst dropoff between his two pitches, with opponents wOBA increasing .181 versus it last year. Opponents were also making much better contact on the pitch, and his k-rate dropped a bunch. A higher BABIP might suggest he was somewhat less lucky with his slider in 2010. However, in 2009 he yielded all of two fly balls on the pitch, and no HRs. But the following year, 25% of the balls in play off his slider were fly balls, two for round trippers. With opponents' averages increasing fairly equally on line drives and ground balls against Broxton's slider, I'm more inclined to believe they were squaring up the pitch better last season, rather than just getting lucky with hit ball location.

Broxton was also leaving his slider over the heart of the zone more last season, especially against RHB who accounted for much of the damage.

Jonathan Broxton's Slider vs. RHB (Click to enlarge)

The small increase in sliders hitting the center of the plate accounted for a good deal of the overall damage down by RHB. They produced an .800 slugging percentage on sliders over the middle of the plate last season, compared to a .231 SLG% when they ended up hitting the outer 3.5 inches of the plate or further.

I wouldn't totally discount that Broxton's problems could partially be a product of mental lapses. But there is enough evidence from pitchFX data alone to suggest that his pitches didn't have the same bite as the year before. Keep an eye on his pitch velocity early in the season. If he's back to 2009 levels, it could be a sign that he's regained his form.

Losing Velocity

Reports today indicated that Phil Hughes lost velocity off his fastball.  Interestingly, he showed a decline in overall velocity as the 2010 season progressed:

Phil Hughes timelines, 2010.His fastball, however, was fine:

Phil Hughes fastball timelines, 2010.His fastball was consistent throughout the year, peaking a bit in May.  His loss of velocity was due to two factors related to his curveball.  Phil threw more curves and fewer fastballs as the season progressed, and his curveball velocity fell off.

Phil Hughes curveball timelines, 2010.Note that the slower curve resulted in more swings and a lower batting average when the ball was put in play.  In other words, the slower curveball was an improvement.

If Hughes's velocity is really down this spring, there's no evidence in the 2010 season data that anything went wrong.  I suspect this is an artifact of spring training games, where sometimes pitchers work on mechanics and new pitches in games.  I'd love to see the readings on his fastballs when he throws bullpens.

Bad Ball Hitters

2010 Top Ten Power Hitters on Pitches Outside of the Strike Zone (min. 750 pitches)

League average slugging percentage on pitches out of the strike zone last year was around .250. Rafael Furcal is the one name that pops out in this list. Unlike the other names in the top ten (and most all in the top 25), Furcal is not a power hitter. He's never hit more than 15 home runs in any season, and has amassed a total of 23 in his last 3 seasons of 400 plate appearances or more.

The switch hitting Furcal has always had more power from the right side of the plate (.400 as LHB, .447 as RHB), and most of his power on pitches out of the strike zone last year came from the right side. Three of his eight HRs from last year came on pitches out of the strike zone from the right side.

For a singles hitter like Furcal, you'd expect him to carry a high batting average on outside of the zone pitches, and his .263 average ranked him tenth last year. And his average on line drives off pitches out of the zone was a lofty .917 as well.

However, what was most surprising was his low batting average on ground balls. In his prime, Furcal was one of the faster players in the game, swiping 226 bases through his first 7 seasons in the majors. Furcal is still fairly fast at this point in his career compared to the average major leaguer, and speedy players tend to have better batting averages on ground balls. However, Furcal only managed a .115 ground ball average on balls out of the zone last year (.258 overall on GB). With 40% of the out of strike zone balls in play coming on the ground, his place in the top ten of this list is that much more impressive. He was doing it with the stick, and not his legs.

Update on Friday, March 25, 2011 at 1:44PM by Jonathan Scippa

Vlad slugged .372 on pitches out of the strike zone in 2010, ranking him 12th behind Hanley Ramirez.  Over the past three years combined, he comes in 5th with a .382 SLG%, while Troy Tulowitzki's .433 takes the top spot.