What's Wrong with Liriano?

Francisco Liriano (MIN) turned in a stellar 2010 season, but through five starts in 2011 his ERA stands at 9.13.  His control is poor and he allowed nearly half his 2010 home run total.  The most glaring difference between 2010 and 2011 for Liriano is a drop of velocity on his fastball:

Francisco Liriano, fastball graph, 2010-2011.His velocity dropped about 1.5 MPH from 2010, down to 92 MPH on average.  While batters made contact with his fastball often last season, that is up too as the slower pitch is easier to hit.  Despite the drop, his opposition batting average isn't that much worse, it's the power and walks that are getting to him:

Vs. Fastballs	2010	2011
Batting average	.323	.320
OBP	.388	.435
Slugging average	.462	.520
wOBA	.369	.415

There is a secondary effect as well.  Liriano's change up stayed at about 85 MPH, meaning it looks less different than his fastball this season.  The opposition can hit that pitch better as well.

Vs. Change Ups	2010	2011
Batting average	.241	.294
OBP	.252	.333
Slugging average	.340	.588
wOBA	.256	.385

The change was a great out pitch for Francisco, and now batters are waiting to power it out of the park.

InDepth Spotlight: Dan Haren vs. David DeJesus

In tonight's A's-Angels game, keep an eye on how L.A.'s Dan Haren pitches to Oakland leadoff hitter David DeJesus. Haren has been relying heavily on his cutter this season, throwing it 35.1% of the time, the most of any pitch. The results have been good; opposing batters have hit only .148 against the pitch (4 hits, 27 PA, 68 total pitches).

Meanwhile, DeJesus has not hit cutters well in his career.

David Dejesus vs. Cutters (2008-Present) (Click to enlarge) DeJesus has hit only .171 against cutters since 2008, with no extra base hits (6 hits, 38 PA, 165 total pitches). Against righty cutters, he's only hitting .130. Expect Haren to lean heavily on the pitch when DeJesus is in the batter's box tonight.

Ethier's Adjustment?

Andre Ethier (LAN) extended his hitting streak to 24 games Wednesday afternoon.  A .279 career hitter, Andre's batting average stands at .380 in 2011.  The pattern that pitchers used against him doesn't seem to be working this year.

During the previous three seasons, Ethier did his best hitting on balls inside:

Andre Ethier, in play average, 2008-2011.So pitchers worked him away:

Andre Ethier, pitch frequency, 2008-2010. They continue to work him away in 2011:

Andre Ethier, pitch frequency, 2011.What's changed is Andre is poking those outside pitches for hits:

Andre Ethier, in play average, 2011.So is this real, or just an early season fluke?  Andre hasn't really changed his approach.  He's not swinging more at outside pitches, except those in the upper outside corner.  He's squaring up those pitches better, however.  In the past, 19% of balls he put in play on outside pitches resulted in line drives.  This season, 35% of those pitches turn into line drives.  That seems like an unsustainable rate, but for now, the old way of pitching to the Dodgers outfielder just isn't working.