Andre Ethier's Hit Streak

Andre Ethier's (LAD) hit streak sits at 30.  As David Pinto noted a couple of weeks back, Ethier has been getting hits on balls on the outside of the zone.  This has been a change from his hitting pattern over the previous three years:

Andre Ethier (Click to enlarge)

Prior to this year, Ethier had been generating a good deal of power on pitches down and in.  That zone has gone cold for him this season, while he's been able to hit pitches low and away much better.

As you would expect from someone riding a 30-game hit streak, Ethier has a very high BABIP of .444 this season, 131 points higher than his previous three year average.  Part of this is due to the increase in line drives he's been hitting during the streak.  Compared to his numbers from 2008-2010, Ethier's LD% is up 7% since his hit streak began.  Even more important, his line drive BABIP is up 192 points. 

Ethier has also been a bit luckier than usual on his groundballs.  Throughout his streak, they have resulted in hits about 36% of the time.  From 2008-2010, he had a groundball batting average of .255.

Ethier faces the New York Mets tonight at Citi Field as he attempts to tie Willie Davis for the Dodgers all-time hit streak honor.  While Ethier's in play average will likely regress at some point this season, the real question is whether it will regress enough over the next 26 or so games to break his hit streak.

Prince Fielder's HR off Tommy Hanson

In Wednesday's game between Milwaukee and Atlanta, Brewers' slugger Prince Fielder took Tommy Hanson deep in the 4th inning.  It was the second lefty HR yielded by Hanson this season, and the 7th HR for Fielder.

Hanson attempted to work Fielder very carefully and for the most part his pitch location wasn't bad.  He started Fielder off with a fastball that just caught the low outside corner for a strike, followed by a curve that he seemed to get a bad release on, floating it up and away for a ball.  His next pitch was a fastball outside of the strike zone that Fielder fouled off.  On his fourth and final pitch, Hanson tried to slip a slider down and in on Fielder.  However, he didn't get it down as much as I suspect he wanted to, and it came into the bottom portion of Fielder's power zone.

Tommy Hanson vs. Prince Fielder 4/5/2011, 4th Inning Prince Fielder's SLG% heat map Data from 2008 to Present (Click to enlarge)

From the video, you can see that Fielder was sitting on an off-speed pitch.  Since his debut in 2009, Hanson has gone to either his curveball or slider with two strikes 50.2% of the time.  On 1-2 counts, that number jumps to 58.7%.  It wasn't necessarily a bad strategy for Hanson.  In fact, when throwing the slider with two strikes, he's held opposing batters to a .193 batting average with a .272 slugging percentage.  And before yesterday, he'd yet to yield a HR on any of the previous 460 two strike sliders he's thrown.

But this particular slider was thrown to a spot in Fielder's wheelhouse, and he was waiting for it.  Just a great piece of hitting from an excellent power hitter.

Erick Aybar and the Inside Strike

Erick Aybar (LAA) hit well in 2009, posting a .312/.353/.423 slash line, good for a wOBA of .334.  In 2010, that dropped to .253/.306/.330, a poor .282 wOBA.  So far in 2011, Aybar's averages are back up.  What changed from 2009 to 2010, and has it changed back?

Aybar is a switch hitter, with most of his at bats coming against right-handed pitching.  In 2009, umpires gave Erick the benefit of the doubt on pitches on the inside corner of the plate.

Erick Aybar, called strikes from right-handed pitchers, 2009.Umps called strikes wide on Erick, but he could take the inside pitch, and force pitchers to move farther over the plate, a better hitting zone.  In 2010, umpires were not as generous.

Erick Aybar, called strikes from right-handed pitchers, 2010.While he still got the low strike called a ball, the inside edge of the plate reverted rightfully to the pitcher.  You can see how this might hurt a batter.  He was hitting in pitchers counts more often, and right-handed opponents didn't need to move over the center of the plate as much.  His strikeout rate against RHP went from 10.6% in 2009 to 14.6% last season.

What about in 2011?

Erick Aybar, called strikes from right-handed pitchers, 2011.Erick gets a big chunk of the lower, inside part of the plate.  The upper inside edge still belongs to the pitcher.  With almost one quarter of the zone going Aybar's way, it no wonder his slash line is back up to .342/.364/.425 and his strikeout percentage is now to 11.3%.  I would be dubious of that much of the zone going his way the full season, but if can at least keep the lower inside edge, he might post good numbers again.