Ian Kinsler's troubles

In this morning's Dallas News, the Texas Rangers' Ian Kinsler really summed it up to writer Gerry Fraley, “I’m hitting .235,” said Kinsler. “You can look at anything. Right now, I stink.”

That may a little harsh, Ian, but only a little.

Kinsler is slugging .393, 65 points below his lifetime average. He hit three homers in his first 10 at-bats this season, but only five homers in his last 275 at-bats.

As bad as all that is, what is worse is Kinsler with runners in scoring position. Fraley points out, "For the season, he is hitting only .185 with runners in scoring position. That is the ninth-lowest average among AL qualifiers."

Comparing 2008 and 2011

The 2008 season was a good one for Kinsler hitting .319, slugging .517 and an OPS of .892. With runners in scoring position, he hit .413.

I compared the 2008 Kinsler w/RISP against fastballs and the 2011 model and saw a significant difference.

2008 RISP vs the Fastball

Ian hit .400 and slugged .618

2011 RISP vs the Fastball

Ian is hitting .179 and slugging .286This is just against the fastball and you can see that he is handling very little on the outer part of the plate.

Here is an isolated view of the outer portion of the plate:

2011 Fastball w/RISP outer part of the plateIt gets even more shocking when you see this:

2011 RISP vs all pitches on the outer part of the plate

This is what an .032 average looks likeKinsler has just one hit in 27 at bats, a double off of a change-up, on pitches on the outer portion of the plate.

The fact that Kinsler has drown 42 walks when batting leadoff, the most in the AL is no surprise. Pitchers are pumping Kinsler on the outer half of the plate, which has produced 27 walks:

27 walks have come from outside pitches, 15 on fastballsKinsler's ability to adjust and address this issue will go a long way in determining his, and the Rangers', success in 2011.

Pitchers Challenging Ben Revere

Twins outfielder Ben Revere is a polarizing prospect. His backers see a high-contact hitter with blazing speed. His critics point out that the 5-foot-9, 175 pounder rarely gets the ball out of the infield and may be bullied by pitchers at the highest level. It's far too early to make a definitive judgment about the 23-year-old, but those shouting warnings about Revere's hitting ability have been right so far.

Revere's triple slash in 2011 (.264/.291/.295) is devoid of walks or power. And pitchers, knowing that the worst Revere can do to them is slap a single the other way, are challenging him to hit pitches over the plate.

Opponents have thrown Revere a fastball or a sinker about 68 percent of the time, which is the highest rate among MLB hitters and well above the 57-58 percent league average. And 53 percent of those fastballs/sinkers have been thrown within the strike zone (51 percent average). Revere's in-play slugging percentage versus fastballs and sinkers is chock full of blue:

Revere's in-play slugging percentage against fastballs

Revere has a .300 slugging percentage versus fastballs/sinkers, while the league average is .439. The lefty batter has one extra-base hit against a fastball in 2011: a double against Chicago's Gavin Floyd on June 15.

Similarly, pitchers are pounding the zone when they do decide to throw Revere breaking stuff. Over 57 percent of the curveballs and sliders that Revere has seen have been within the strike zone, compared to the 45 percent league average.

Revere's in-play slugging percentage against breaking balls

Revere's .231 slugging percentage against breaking balls is well short of the .351 league average.

One might look at Ben Revere's three percent walk rate and assume that he's hacking, but that's not the case. Rather, pitchers see a hitter who can't do much extra-base damage against them, and in response, they're throwing strikes and forcing Revere to prove that he can hit in the majors. After all, why tiptoe around the strike zone when the worst the batter can do is poke a single through the infield?

Kemp Killing Fastballs, Sliders

Last night, Matt Kemp went 4-for-5 and hit his National League-leading 22nd home run of the season as the Dodgers pummeled the Twins 15-0. Kemp doubled and notched a pair of singles on fastballs, and hit a 449 foot bomb on a slider. Following another big game, Kemp has a .336/.422/.636 line and ranks behind just a pair of Joses (Bautista and Reyes) in Wins Above Replacement.

L.A.'s center fielder has put himself in MVP contention by throttling fastballs and sliders. Look at his in-play slugging percentage on fastballs, compared to the league average:

    Kemp's in-play slugging percentage vs. fastballs

  League average in-play slugging percentage vs. fastballs                     

Look at all that red! Kemp's overall slugging percentage against fastballs is .780. That makes a mockery of the .439 league average, and is way above Kemp's .500 slugging percentage last season. Twelve of Kemp's homers have come against fastballs. Only Curtis Granderson has hit more home runs against heaters.

Here's Kemp's in-play slugging percentage versus sliders:

Kemp's in-play slugging percentage vs. sliders

League average in-play slugging percentage vs. sliders          

Kemp is slugging .631 against sliders, compared to the .341 league average and his .446 mark in 2010. He has cracked seven homers on sliders, the highest total among MLB hitters.

Kemp's percentage of fastballs seen hasn't changed much over the course of the season, but pitchers seemingly got the scouting report on the slider and are throwing it less often. Kemp got a slider about 26 percent of the time in April, but that figure dropped to 20 percent in May and is slightly under 19 percent in June.