The Mike Napoli RBI Machine

Mike Napoli may have found a silver lining to the offseason hip cloud he experienced.

Think about this: Napoli had agreed to three-year $39 million contract with the Red Sox. Boston fans waited and waited for the deal to become official. Then came the news in December that catcher/first baseman Napoli was suffering from avascular necrosis, a degenerative bone disease that was doing a number on his hips. Both camps regrouped and after much negotiations, now just first baseman Napoli ended up with a one-year deal worth $5 million.

Today, 19 games into this season, Napoli's hips are behaving and he leads the majors with 25 RBI. The team record for April is 25 held by Manny Ramirez who did his damage in 23 games in 2003.

Napoli is hitting .278 and slugging .570. In 10 games at home, he's hitting .306 and slugging .611 with five doubles, two home runs, and 12 RBI. At Fenway, he's hitting .389 with runners on base and has gone 5-for-10 with runners in scoring position.

This is what .611 slugging looks like

Napoli is showing tremendous horizontal coverage of the strike zone but the pitcher who attempts to get a pitch by Napoli low in the zone is simply punished.

That red area you see on the heat map above reflects a .400 batting average and an .875 slugging percentage, all four of his homers, and 17 RBI.

Look how effective Napoli has been when he's come to the plate with runners on base

• BR = Base runners
• BRS - Base runners scored

	Base Runners
Year	BR	BRS	BRS%
2010	326	42	13%
2012	283	33	12%
2011	268	48	18%
2009	283	36	13%
2007	183	24	13%
2006	200	26	13%
2008	175	31	18%
2013	78	21	27%
8 Yrs	1796	261	15%
MLB Average			15%

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/23/2013. 

• As you can see, Napoli is driving in baserunners at an amazing rate with productivity approaching that of some full seasons. 

All of this with the right-hand hitting Napoli so far looking miserable against lefties.

Napoli is lifetime .271 against lefties and .255 hitter versus righties. This season, he's hitting .188 against lefties and .302 against righties.

Whiffs are still an issue

There is still some reality that could be an issue when Napoli's .367 BAbip stabilizes: Napoli has struck out 26 times good for sixth in the majors with Rickie Weeks and if you need some perspecitve, Adam Dunn, the current model of hitting inefficiency, has whiffed 27 times.

However, we wait and watch Napoli drive runners home and possibly turn a cloud's silver lining into pure gold.

Why are the Royals, Twins, Red Sox, Orioles, and Rangers above .500?

AL Teams Batting Average and BA w/RISP

I can't help be fascinated with the differential between team batting average and team average with runners in scoring position as an indicator of team success.

AL teams are hitting .251 overall and .251 with runners in scoring position 

It stands to reason then that the teams that are succeeding this young season are the ones with the highest positive differential between the two figures.

As you mouse over the teams, you can see that in terms of batting, the team closest to the average is Houston. Remember, this only takes into account batting and clearly the 5-13 Astros have problems that far exceed their ability to hit with runners in scoring position.

When you look at the Kansas City Royals numbers you can see why they are a first place team. Their batting avg. is fifth best in the league, but their abilty to hit with runners in scoring position is the best in the AL and  at +55 points, you can see a reason for their success.

Look at the Twins, and you can see a reason for their surprising early success. They have a +49 point differential. The Red Sox have a +35 which has brought them success when paired with their strong pitching.

Wonder why the Tigers with their great bats are off to a rocky start? How about hitting 42 points lower with runners in scoring position as an answer? 

The Angels have the highest batting average in the league at .280, but are only hitting .223 w/RISP. This puts them in the bottom four in the league.

But no team is exhibiting worse timely hitting than the White Sox

Chicago, like Toronto, is not hitting well overall, both at .232. But as bad as the Jays are hitting with RISP at .200, that is robust compared to the White Sox at .170, a -62 differential.

Unless, and until, those two teams narrow the gap, the liklihood of even reaching .500 this season remains remote.

In the meantime, as the Royals, Twins, Red Sox, Orioles, and Rangers continue to hit well with runners in scoring position, we will see them above .500 and challenging in their respective divisions.

Fantasy Baseball Diary: Free Agent Pickups for Week 3

I added a new wrinkle to this weeks Free Agents Pickups by adding the ownership percentage (in NFBC Leagues) for each player. The format of the player capsules are now: name, position, team, percent owned.  

Edward Mujica, RP, Cardinals, 20%: This is the easiest pickup for every fantasy owner to make because he earned a save last night. Since Spring Training, when Trevor Rosenthal was put in the bullpen and Jason Motte began having elbow problems I thought it would only be a matter of time before Rosenthal would become the closer for the Cardinals. He has all the qualities to be an elite closer; a 80 grade fastball (on the scouting scale) with a solid cutter and curveball that play up because of the fastball. Rosenthal has struggled this year, giving up five earned runs in 9.2 innings. His struggles, coupled with the struggles of Mitchell Boggs has left the door open for Edward Mujica to become the closer. Mujica is solid reliever who misses plenty of bats while hardly walking anyone (3.9% walk rate since 2010). When it comes to closers, opportunity is often equally important to skill and it appears he’ll get an opportunity. I still believe Rosenthal will have the most saves for the Cardinals at the end of the year.

Carlos Marmol, RP, Cubs, 63%: Carlos Marmol’s struggles have been well documented. However, he pitched the 9^th inning with a four run lead on Thursday and has not allowed a run in his last five outings. His primary competition for saves, Kyuji Fujikawa, is the on DL and the team doesn’t have a better alternative. Marmol can be a maddening pitcher to watch because at times he can be as unhittable as Craig Kimbrell (32.2 percent strikeout rate since 2008) and other times he can be as hittable as Joe Blanton or Tommy Hanson (15.8 percent walk rate since 2008), but if the Cubs want to trade him at the deadline they will see more in return if he has achieved a high save total.

Felix Doubront, SP, Red Sox, 70%: Despite having a 4.50 ERA Felix Doubront has looked a lot better than his numbers would indicate. His walk rate has improved from 10 percent to 8.7 percent and his strikeout rate has improved from 23.6 percent last year to 28.3 percent. His fastball command has improved to the point where he’s consistently pitching up and the outer half of the strike zone to right handed hitters. His next four matchups are favorable: Houston, @Toronto, Minnesota and Toronto. Toronto is no longer the high powered offensive juggernaut with Jose Reyes on the DL and Jose Bautista in and out of the lineup with a sore back. He was extremely homer prone last year, but so far this season he has only allowed one home run.

Alberto Callaspo, 3B, Angels, 42%: Despite not playing for the past five games he is someone you should add if you’re in need of runs. When he last played he batted leadoff, in front of Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Josh Hamilton, so it’s possible that when he is ready to return to game action he could be in line to score a lot of runs. He doesn’t have overly impressive offensive skills, but he has the ability to hit ten home runs, steal bases and hit for a batting average that won’t hurt your team. It’s possible he could go on the DL, but by the time FAAB period starts on Sunday we should know his playing status.