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« Mike Trout Adjusted, Again | Main | B.Chuck: Boston should be worried about their pitching »

The Power of BAbip and Runs

  • The average team in the American League has a .295 Batting Average for balls in play.
  • The average team in the American League has scored 307 runs. 

  • The Red Sox have a .321 BAbip and have scored 371 runs, to lead in both categories.
  • The Tigers at .317 and 342 are second in both categories
  • But scan over the Astros and the Royals and you can see two teams that have not taken advantage of their high BAbip to put runs on the board.
  • On the other hand, the Rays and the A's are scoring above average despite having lower than average BAbip. Both teams know how to move runners around the bases.
  • You have to know that both the Yankees and the White Sox are counting on progressing to the mean in both categories.

National League

  • The average team in the National League has a .295 Batting Average for balls in play.
  • The average team in the National League has scored 287 runs.
  • Despite the lack of DH, the BAbip is the same, but there is a 20 run per team differential

  • As you can see, the the Cardinals have a .321 BAbip, the best in the NL and they have scored 355 runs, tied for the most in the NL with the Rockies.
  • This means that the Cards and the Red Sox, the two teams with the best records in their leagues are both doing this with their bats.
  • What impresses me is that the Reds, who have an average BAbip have scored 327 runs, third best in the NL.
  • Note that the Pirates are the only team of the eight below 300 runs scored in the NL with an over .500 record. Every other team, from the 36-35 Padres on up have scored over 300 runs and are above average in BAbip.

Keep watching

Regression and progression to the mean in BAbip may bring the Red Sox and the Cardinals back to the field and a number of other teams will be back in play.

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