Getting ahead on the Count is the Key to LCS
Friday, October 11, 2013 at 10:30AM
Bill Chuck - Managing Editor in 2013 World Series Projections, Bill Chuck Files, Boston Red Sox, Cardinals, Detroit Tigers
Here is a very quick and simplistic key to success in the two League Championship Series: Get ahead on the count.

Take a look at the 2013 Postseason numbers for the final four

Here's the overall batting numbers to date
Postseason Batting for the Final Four Teams
G PA AVG OBP SLUG OPS K% BB% HR% WHAV
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD) 4 156 .333 .390 .572 .962 22.4% 7.7% 5.1% .218
2. Boston Red Sox (BOS) 4 160 .286 .390 .414 .803 20.6% 12.5% 1.5% .191
3. Detroit Tigers (DET) 5 178 .235 .299 .321 .620 21.3% 7.3% 1.9% .117
4. St. Louis Cardinals (STL) 5 179 .209 .294 .354 .648 17.3% 9.5% 3.8% .188

Now take a look at these teams numbers in hitter's counts:
Postseason Batting for the Final Four Teams on Hitter's Counts
G PA AVG OBP SLUG OPS K% BB% HR% WHAV
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD) 4 24 .611 .667 .722 1.389 0.0% 20.8% 0.0% .474
2. Boston Red Sox (BOS) 4 40 .423 .615 .808 1.423 0.0% 30.0% 7.7% .519
3. Detroit Tigers (DET) 5 41 .333 .500 .467 .967 0.0% 22.0% 3.3% .161
4. St. Louis Cardinals (STL) 5 43 .278 .395 .500 .895 0.0% 16.3% 5.6% .306


Now, check out the difference when these batters are facing pitcher's counts.
Postseason Batting for the Final Four Teams on Pitcher's Counts
G PA AVG OBP SLUG OPS K% BB% HR% WHAV
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD) 4 79 .269 .269 .526 .795 41.8% 0.0% 6.4% .114
2. St. Louis Cardinals (STL) 5 86 .205 .224 .337 .561 31.4% 0.0% 3.6% .131
3. Boston Red Sox (BOS) 4 66 .203 .212 .266 .478 40.9% 0.0% 0.0% .092
4. Detroit Tigers (DET) 5 81 .150 .160 .250 .410 42.0% 0.0% 2.5% .100

Here's the other side - Pitchers Numbers for the LCS


Postseason Pitching for the Final Four Teams
G PA AVG OBP SLUG OPS K% BB% HR% WHAV
1. St. Louis Cardinals (STL) 5 172 .201 .269 .312 .581 23.3% 8.1% 2.6% .178
2. Detroit Tigers (DET) 5 183 .217 .280 .380 .660 31.1% 7.7% 3.0% .190
3. Boston Red Sox (BOS) 4 143 .225 .294 .372 .666 23.1% 7.7% 3.1% .209
4. Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD) 4 147 .214 .290 .275 .564 28.6% 9.5% 0.8% .159

Here's how the pitchers fare when they are behind on the count.
Postseason Pitching for the Final Four Teams: Hitters Counts
G PA AVG OBP SLUG OPS K% BB% HR% WHAV
1. St. Louis Cardinals (STL) 5 39 .367 .487 .600 1.087 0.0% 20.5% 6.7% .323
2. Detroit Tigers (DET) 5 37 .286 .432 .536 .968 0.0% 21.6% 3.6% .345
3. Boston Red Sox (BOS) 4 29 .440 .517 .760 1.277 0.0% 13.8% 4.0% .400
4. Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD) 4 27 .182 .333 .227 .561 0.0% 18.5% 0.0% .273

Now, take a look at how effective these pitchers are when they are ahead on the count.
Postseason Pitching for the Final Four Teams: Hitters Counts
G PA AVG OBP SLUG OPS K% BB% HR% WHAV
1. Detroit Tigers (DET) 5 100 .163 .172 .306 .478 49.0% 0.0% 3.1% .121
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD) 4 75 .203 .203 .270 .473 45.3% 0.0% 1.4% .122
3. St. Louis Cardinals (STL) 5 70 .100 .100 .143 .243 47.1% 0.0% 1.4% .086
4. Boston Red Sox (BOS) 4 70 .132 .143 .221 .363 42.9% 0.0% 2.9% .132

These are the four best teams, but only two will move on


These numbers show a key as to who will thrive and who won't survive. It's not the only key to these two LCS, but it is one you can count on and one you can track very easily.
Article originally appeared on MLB Baseball Analytics (https://baseballanalytics.org/).
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