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« Interactive InfoGraphic: MLB Save Leaders Since 2008 | Main | The Fantasy Baseball Diary: Yoenis Cespedes »
Tuesday
Jan152013

Is Matt Holliday spiraling?

Is Matt Holliday starting to head downhill? I know this seems absurd to ask about a player who hit .295 with 27 homers and 102 RBI, but let's take a moment to look at the numbers.

Year Age Tm H HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
2007 27 COL 216 36 137 63 126 .340 .405 .607 1.012
2008 28 COL 173 25 88 74 104 .321 .409 .538 .947
2009 29 TOT 182 24 109 72 101 .313 .394 .515 .909
2010 30 STL 186 28 103 69 93 .312 .390 .532 .922
2011 31 STL 132 22 75 60 93 .296 .388 .525 .912
2012 32 STL 177 27 102 75 132 .295 .379 .497 .877
9 Yrs 1525 229 872 527 924 .313 .387 .536 .923
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 1/15/2013.

 

This might get your attention

Holliday's numbers are indeed impressive, but did you notice: 

  • That his BA has decreased each year since 2007?
  • What direction is his OBP heading?
  • How about slugging?
  • His OPS was .052 lower than his career number when the season started?
  • Did you see his strikeout total last year compared with other season? 

Comparing 2010 and 2012

Let's look at the numbers

Top = 2010

Bottom = 2012 

First thing to notice is the difference in the strikeouts and K%. This seems to be the result of Holliday swinging more and missing more, particularly on pitches out of the strike zone. 

In 2010, Holliday hit 11 homers and hit .308 off of fastballs. Last season off the fastball, Holliday hit .263 with eight homers and over the last two seasons combined, he's hit 15 homers, the same he hit off the fastball in 2008.

In 2010, Holliday hit .412 (7-17) against the cutter and last season, he went 8-34 (.235) against the cutter.

MATT HOLLIDAY, of the St. Louis Cardinals, in action during the Cardinals game against the Atlanta Braves on April 30, 2011 at Turner Field

2010/2012 vs. Fastball & Cutter

BA: .314/.260

OPS: .907/.807

K%: 13.2%/18.0%

Cardinal fans, I don't think there is any reason to panic, but I certainly would say there is reason to pay attention.

 

 

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Reader Comments (1)

From the start of 2008 through 2012 his OPS+ has been above his career average (137) every single year. Same with wRC+. His K rate has gone up, yes, but so has the average K rate in the entire sport. The power is still there, the BABIP is still stable, the walks are there, and he even managed 688 PA this passed year. Guy turns 33 this year. Spiraling is not the word, but regression to the mean and aging is more like it.

January 15, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterCaveman Jones
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