Tim Lincecum, simply out of control

It was another big win for the Giants last night as they topped the Dodgers, 5-2, to increase their NL West lead to 5.5 games, their largest margin since ending the 2003 season with a 15.5 lead. The batting hero was former Red Sox Marco Scutaro who blooped a 7th inning tie-breaking bases-loaded single off former Red Sox Josh Beckett to drive home two runs to the delight of the sold-out AT&T Park in San Francisco.

Beckett took the loss and Santiago Casilla (7-5) earned the win. Casilla had entered the game in relief of Giants starter Tim Lincecum who went 6.1 for the Giants and surrendered a career-high seven walks.

Lincecum again failed to win back-to-back starts for only the third time this season, but at least he didn't increase his league-leading loss total to 15. It is hard to believe that this two-time Cy Young Award winner has fallen so far, so fast but his control has been an issue all season long for Lincecum.

Take a look at his career vs. 2012 numbers, then take a look graphically at the difference between Lincecum under control and out of control against the Dodgers this season.

Year	W	L	W-L%	ERA	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	WP	WHIP	BB/9
2007	7	5	.583	4.00	146.1	122	65	12	65	150	10	1.278	4.0
2008	18	5	.783	2.62	227.0	182	66	11	84	265	17	1.172	3.3
2009	15	7	.682	2.48	225.1	168	62	10	68	261	11	1.047	2.7
2010	16	10	.615	3.43	212.1	194	81	18	76	231	9	1.272	3.2
2011	13	14	.481	2.74	217.0	176	66	15	86	220	9	1.207	3.6
2012	8	14	.364	5.11	163.2	163	93	18	78	169	15	1.473	4.3
6 Yrs	77	55	.583	3.27	1191.2	1005	433	84	457	1296	71	1.227	3.5

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 9/8/2012.

In four starts, this season against the Dodgers, Lincecum has been effective going 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA, but an unimpressive 1.375 WHIP because of 24 hits and 12 walks in only 24 innings. You can see by his Game Scores that despite his low ERA, he was frequently in trouble.

Rk	Date	Rslt	App,Dec	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	Pit	Str	GSc
1	2012-09-07	W 5-2	GS-7	6.1	4	2	2	7	7	1	119	71	57
2	2012-08-21	W 4-1	GS-6 ,W	5.2	5	1	1	1	4	0	87	52	58
3	2012-06-27	W 3-0	GS-7 ,W	7.0	4	0	0	2	8	0	115	70	75
4	2012-05-09	L 2-6	GS-5 ,L	5.0	8	4	4	2	8	0	101	74	41

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used Generated 9/8/2012.

Let's look graphically at the difference between last night's game and Tim's best pitched game against LA in June. At the All-Star break, Lincecum was 3-10 with a 6.42 ERA, but on June 27 Lincecum reminded us what kind of pitcher he is.

6/27 vs. LA - 7 IP, 4H, 0 R, 2 BB, 8 K = SF wins, 3-0, Lincecum gets the win 

Look at his location

9/7 vs. LA - 6.1 IP, 4H, 2 R, 7 BB, 7 K = SF wins, 5-2, Lincecum no decision

You can see Lincecum's lack of control in and out of the strike zone

When the Dodgers look back at this game, after the 2-5 score, there is one stat that will haunt them: Dodgers w/RISP: 0-10 (Josh Beckett 0-1, Mark Ellis 0-1, Adrian Gonzalez 0-2, Hanley Ramirez 0-2, and Matt Kemp 0-4).

It looks right now that the Giants are postseason bound in spite of Lincecum's troubles. On the other hand, in Lincecum's last four starts the team is 3-1, and he is 2-1 with a 3.09.

Which means that on a team that has Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong at the top of their rotations, having a Tim Lincecum at #4 makes the Giants a team to be recokoned with in October...as long as he is under control.