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« Bill Chuck's Nine to Know: NL Edition | Main | Brett Jackson: Whiff Machine »
Monday
Sep032012

The fading Jered Weaver

It's hard to look at a pitcher who has a record like Jered Weaver and say that he's in a slump, but at the time when the Angels are struggling to avoid major disappointing season, Weaver seems to be fading.

When you look at Weaver's 16-4 record after losing a 2-1 squeaker to the Mariners yesterday, I don't blame you for wondering what I'm writing about. Particularly when you add that Weaver's ERA is 2.86 and his WHIP of 1.029 is the best in the AL. But, you need to realize that through his starts of August 6, Weaver was 13-1 with a 2.13 ERA and a 0.916 WHIP.

Look at his numbers in his last five starts:

Date

GS 

CG 

Tm

W-L 

W-L 

IP 

H  

R  

ER 

BB 

SO 

HR 

ERA 

BAA

8/12 - 9/2

5

0

2-3 1-3

29.1  

34 

21 

20

11

20

7

6.14

.293

 WHIP = 1.546                          

 

But as you compare his heat maps up to and through his August 6 starts to those from August 12 and beyond, you see an entirely different (and probably tired) pitcher.

Here's Weaver in his first 20 starts when batters hit .197 against him:

Now look at Weaver in his last five starts in which batters have hit nearly 100 points better:

Batters are now hitting .343 on the lower half of the plateHere is why I think the Weaver fatigue factor does not bode well for the Angels postseason hopes.

In Weaver's first 20 starts, batters hit .191 against his fastball and slugged .292:

Lefties hit .173 against Weaver's fastball and righties hit .221

In Weaver's last five starts, batters have hit .245 against his fastball and slugged .472:

Lefties are hitting .229 and righties are hitting .278

Don't be entirely fooled by the 2-1 score yesterday. Weaver gave up solo home runs to Jesus Montero (who owns Weaver) and Carlos Peguero and took a line drive off his right shoulder in the 5th. Weaver remained in the game but walked two of the next six batters and was pulled when his pitch count was at just 86.

Hopefully it was nothing more than a bruise to Weaver's shoulder and maybe the short outing will do him good; his only win in his last five outings came on August 22 against the Red Sox (yes, it still counts) after he threw just 58 pitches in just three innings while getting clobbered for nine runs by the Rays on August 17.

For the Angels to reach the postseason they need to hit with runners in scoring position (they're hitting just .259) and a winning Weaver.

 

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